Erbaaspor vs Elazığspor
Match result probability Model pick: Elazığspor win
Erbaaspor win
30.1%
Draw
20.2%
Elazığspor winPick
49.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.8%
No44.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.561.3%
Under 2.538.7%
How much we know
Erbaaspor history55 matches
Elazığspor history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Elazığspor
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 09:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 10:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.7%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Elazığspor are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Elazığspor are rated 193 Elo points higher
Elo 1,642 against 1,449. On rating alone Elazığspor would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.
-
Elazığspor score far more
1.44 goals a game over 55 matches for Erbaaspor, against 2.25 over 57 for Elazığspor.
-
Elazığspor concede fewer
Erbaaspor concede 1.80 a game, Elazığspor 0.98.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
58% of Erbaaspor matches, against 65% for Elazığspor. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Elazığspor@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1448.9
ELO
1641.8
55
ELO · Matches
57
1448.9
Current Team ELO
1641.8
1641.8
Current Opponent ELO
1448.9
-192.9
Current ELO Difference
192.9
0.25
Expected score
0.75
55
History Matches
57
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.12
46.99
Overperformance
59.12
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.26
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
2.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
2.40
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.60
1.10
Goals for per game
2.50
1.50
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals 90
55
Matches
57
1.25
PPG
2.04
36.4%
Win rate
63.2%
16.4%
Draw rate
14.0%
47.3%
Loss rate
22.8%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.7%
58.2%
Over 2.5 rate
64.9%
38.2%
Over 3.5 rate
40.4%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.20
Venue performance10 signals 100
29
Matches
28
1.48
PPG
1.89
44.8%
Win rate
57.1%
13.8%
Draw rate
17.9%
41.4%
Loss rate
25.0%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
48.3%
Over 2.5 rate
67.9%
37.9%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.65
29
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.44
Goals for per game
2.25
69.1%
Scoring rate
87.7%
54.5%
BTTS rate
49.1%
1.45
Goals for per game
2.39
65.5%
Scoring rate
78.6%
41.4%
BTTS rate
42.9%
55
History Matches
57
1.44
Goals Mean
2.25
1.46
Goals Std
1.70
69.1%
Scored 1+ rate
87.7%
41.8%
Scored 2+ rate
57.9%
14.5%
Scored 3+ rate
38.6%
1.45
Venue Goals Mean
2.39
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.80
Goals against per game
0.98
80.0%
Conceding rate
56.1%
1.69
Goals against per game
1.00
69.0%
Conceding rate
53.6%
55
History Matches
57
1.80
Conceded Mean
0.98
1.43
Conceded Std
1.10
49.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.8%
34.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.0%
1.69
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
43.9%
30.9%
Failed-to-score rate
12.3%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
46.4%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
43.9%
30.9%
Failed-to-score rate
12.3%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
46.4%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
43.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
55
History Matches
57
0.93
Result entropy
0.82
2.09
Goal Difference Std
2.20
7.32
Stability score
17.81
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
55
Eligible Matches
57
15
Lead Matches
24
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
95.8%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.97
18
Trailing Matches
5
16.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.32
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.33
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
202.9
Rest days
187.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
45
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.95
9
Long Rest History Matches
14
0.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.21
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.17
0.72
Portability PPG Range
0.35
62.81
Portability Score
74.33
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
55
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-192.9
PPG-0.78
GF-0.81
GA0.82
PPG-0.41
PPG-2.40
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate18.6%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate13.1%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.81
Goals Std-0.24
Scored 1+ rate-0.19
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.24
Venue Goals Mean-0.94
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.53
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.82
Conceded Std0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Conceded 2+ rate19.3%
Conceded 3+ rate27.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.69
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.37
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score-10.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.31
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate5.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.38
Portability Score-11.51
Rest days15.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.64
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.44
Current Team ELO-192.9
Current Opponent ELO192.9
Current ELO Difference-385.9
Expected score-0.50
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.16
Overperformance-12.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Erbaaspor
W
Erbaaspor2–0Arnavutköy Belediyespor1 Nov · home
Pick: Erbaaspor 48% · hit W
Hatayspor0–3Erbaaspor24 Oct · away
Pick: Erbaaspor 48% · hit L
Erbaaspor0–1Çorluspor 194718 Oct · home
Pick: Çorluspor 1947 44% · hit L
Pazarspor3–1Erbaaspor7 Oct · away
Pick: Pazarspor 41% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Elazığspor
W
Kastamonuspor0–5Elazığspor1 Nov · away
Pick: Elazığspor 50% · hit L
Elazığspor0–2Talasgücü Belediyespor27 Oct · home
Pick: Elazığspor 57% · missed W
Isparta 32 Spor3–4Elazığspor24 Oct · away
Pick: Elazığspor 45% · hit W
Elazığspor3–0Arnavutköy Belediyespor17 Oct · home
Pick: Elazığspor 67% · hit L
Elazığspor2–3Çorluspor 19474 Oct · home
Pick: Elazığspor 49% · missed About this match
Erbaaspor and Elazığspor meet in 2. Lig on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Erbaaspor win 30.1%, draw 20.2%, Elazığspor win 49.7%. The pick is Elazığspor win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.3%. Both teams to score: 55.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.