Ankaraspor vs Aliağa FAŞ
Match result probability Model pick: Aliağa FAŞ win
Ankaraspor win
29.0%
Draw
21.2%
Aliağa FAŞ winPick
49.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes59.1%
No40.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.562.3%
Under 2.537.7%
How much we know
Ankaraspor history52 matches
Aliağa FAŞ history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Aliağa FAŞ
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 09:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 10:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.8%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Aliağa FAŞ are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Aliağa FAŞ are rated 123 Elo points higher
Elo 1,617 against 1,495. On rating alone Aliağa FAŞ would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.
-
Aliağa FAŞ score more
1.79 goals a game over 52 matches for Ankaraspor, against 2.37 over 57 for Aliağa FAŞ.
-
Aliağa FAŞ concede fewer
Ankaraspor concede 1.35 a game, Aliağa FAŞ 1.09.
-
Aliağa FAŞ games more often go over 2.5 goals
60% of Ankaraspor matches, against 68% for Aliağa FAŞ. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 5 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Aliağa FAŞ@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1494.8
ELO
1617.4
52
ELO · Matches
57
1494.8
Current Team ELO
1617.4
1617.4
Current Opponent ELO
1494.8
-122.7
Current ELO Difference
122.7
0.33
Expected score
0.67
52
History Matches
57
0.00
Residual Mean
0.10
49.76
Overperformance
57.33
-0.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
1.80
1.70
Goals for per game
2.40
2.40
Goals against per game
1.40
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.37
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.85
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.52
Overall performance9 signals 90
52
Matches
57
1.40
PPG
2.09
36.5%
Win rate
63.2%
30.8%
Draw rate
19.3%
32.7%
Loss rate
17.5%
82.7%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
59.6%
Over 2.5 rate
68.4%
32.7%
Over 3.5 rate
35.1%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.57
Venue performance10 signals 100
27
Matches
29
1.52
PPG
1.83
37.0%
Win rate
51.7%
40.7%
Draw rate
27.6%
22.2%
Loss rate
20.7%
92.6%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
63.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.1%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
27
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.79
Goals for per game
2.37
84.6%
Scoring rate
86.0%
65.4%
BTTS rate
49.1%
1.89
Goals for per game
2.00
88.9%
Scoring rate
75.9%
74.1%
BTTS rate
51.7%
52
History Matches
57
1.79
Goals Mean
2.37
1.38
Goals Std
1.88
84.6%
Scored 1+ rate
86.0%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
63.2%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
43.9%
1.89
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.35
Goals against per game
1.09
76.9%
Conceding rate
59.6%
1.30
Goals against per game
0.97
77.8%
Conceding rate
69.0%
52
History Matches
57
1.35
Conceded Mean
1.09
1.05
Conceded Std
1.41
40.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.1%
13.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.3%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
0.97
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
52
History Matches
57
1.00
Result entropy
0.83
1.60
Goal Difference Std
2.57
0.23
Stability score
16.89
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
52
Eligible Matches
55
20
Lead Matches
30
65.0%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.93
7
Trailing Matches
10
14.3%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
1.02
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.29
0.96
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
202.9
Rest days
193.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
46
1.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.98
14
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.38
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.44
0.04
Portability PPG Range
1.07
95.74
Portability Score
52.94
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
52
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-122.7
PPG-0.68
GF-0.58
GA0.26
PPG-0.31
PPG-0.40
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate1.3%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.58
Goals Std-0.50
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.96
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.26
Conceded Std-0.35
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate19.3%
Conceded 3+ rate1.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.94
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.17
Goal Difference Std-0.97
Stability score-16.66
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-2.74
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.26
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.42
Portability PPG Range-1.02
Portability Score42.81
Rest days9.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.74
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Current Team ELO-122.7
Current Opponent ELO122.7
Current ELO Difference-245.3
Expected score-0.34
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.31
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Ankaraspor
L
Ankaraspor0–3Sebat Gençlikspor1 Nov · home
Pick: Ankaraspor 41% · missed W
Ankaraspor5–1Kastamonuspor24 Oct · home
Pick: Ankaraspor 42% · hit L
Muş Sport Klübü4–2Ankaraspor18 Oct · away
Pick: Muş Sport Klübü 64% · hit W
68 Aksaray Belediyespor0–1Ankaraspor4 Oct · away
Pick: 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 38% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Aliağa FAŞ
D
Aliağa FAŞ0–0Muş Sport Klübü7 Nov · home
Pick: Muş Sport Klübü 42% · missed L
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik3–2Aliağa FAŞ1 Nov · away
Pick: Aliağa FAŞ 41% · missed W
Pazarspor0–1Aliağa FAŞ27 Oct · away
Pick: Aliağa FAŞ 39% · hit W
Aliağa FAŞ2–168 Aksaray Belediyespor24 Oct · home
Pick: Aliağa FAŞ 53% · hit W
Somaspor1–2Aliağa FAŞ18 Oct · away
Pick: Aliağa FAŞ 55% · hit About this match
Ankaraspor and Aliağa FAŞ meet in 2. Lig on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Ankaraspor win 29.0%, draw 21.2%, Aliağa FAŞ win 49.8%. The pick is Aliağa FAŞ win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.3%. Both teams to score: 59.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.