Sebat Gençlikspor vs Adana Demirspor
Match result probability Model pick: Sebat Gençlikspor win
Sebat Gençlikspor winPick
77.2%
Draw
11.1%
Adana Demirspor win
11.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes45.6%
No54.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.577.2%
Under 2.522.8%
How much we know
Sebat Gençlikspor history46 matches
Adana Demirspor history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Sebat Gençlikspor
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 09:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 10:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (77.2%). Picks in that band won 76.5% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 646 matches.
Why Sebat Gençlikspor are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Sebat Gençlikspor are rated 366 Elo points higher
Elo 1,621 against 1,256. On rating alone Sebat Gençlikspor would be expected to take 89% of the points on offer.
-
Sebat Gençlikspor score far more
2.00 goals a game over 46 matches for Sebat Gençlikspor, against 0.78 over 54 for Adana Demirspor.
-
Sebat Gençlikspor concede fewer
Sebat Gençlikspor concede 0.87 a game, Adana Demirspor 4.00.
-
Adana Demirspor games more often go over 2.5 goals
57% of Sebat Gençlikspor matches, against 91% for Adana Demirspor. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 2 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Adana Demirspor@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1621.2
ELO
1255.5
46
ELO · Matches
54
1621.2
Current Team ELO
1255.5
1255.5
Current Opponent ELO
1621.2
365.6
Current ELO Difference
-365.6
0.89
Expected score
0.11
46
History Matches
54
0.13
Residual Mean
-0.22
58.94
Overperformance
33.62
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.00
1.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
5.40
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.30
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
4.40
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
4.40
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.24
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.48
Overall performance9 signals 90
46
Matches
54
2.15
PPG
0.22
65.2%
Win rate
3.7%
19.6%
Draw rate
11.1%
15.2%
Loss rate
85.2%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
94.4%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
90.7%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
75.9%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
Venue performance10 signals 100
23
Matches
28
2.43
PPG
0.14
78.3%
Win rate
3.6%
8.7%
Draw rate
3.6%
13.0%
Loss rate
92.9%
82.6%
Over 1.5 rate
96.4%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
96.4%
43.5%
Over 3.5 rate
89.3%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
23
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.00
Goals for per game
0.78
87.0%
Scoring rate
51.9%
56.5%
BTTS rate
51.9%
2.39
Goals for per game
0.68
100.0%
Scoring rate
46.4%
56.5%
BTTS rate
46.4%
46
History Matches
54
2.00
Goals Mean
0.78
1.34
Goals Std
0.90
87.0%
Scored 1+ rate
51.9%
60.9%
Scored 2+ rate
20.4%
34.8%
Scored 3+ rate
5.6%
2.39
Venue Goals Mean
0.68
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.87
Goals against per game
4.00
65.2%
Conceding rate
98.1%
0.83
Goals against per game
4.25
56.5%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
54
0.87
Conceded Mean
4.00
0.77
Conceded Std
1.89
19.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
88.9%
2.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
79.6%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
4.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
1.9%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.1%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
53.6%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
1.9%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.1%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
53.6%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
1.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
46
History Matches
54
0.81
Result entropy
0.46
1.51
Goal Difference Std
2.25
19.49
Stability score
54.23
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
46
Eligible Matches
54
14
Lead Matches
3
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.11
7
Trailing Matches
41
42.9%
Non-loss rate
7.3%
28.6%
Trailing Win Rate
2.4%
Goal timing5 signals 50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.87
1.43
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean
2.13
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
210.0
Rest days
196.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
31
Normal Rest History Matches
31
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.10
14
Long Rest History Matches
22
2.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.41
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.12
0.15
Portability PPG Range
0.24
86.86
Portability Score
80.51
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
46
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO365.6
PPG1.93
GF1.22
GA-3.13
PPG2.29
PPG2.00
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate32.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.35
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate43.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.54
History Matches-8
Goals Mean1.22
Goals Std0.44
Scored 1+ rate35.1%
Scored 2+ rate40.5%
Scored 3+ rate29.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.41
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean-3.13
Conceded Std-1.12
Clean-sheet rate32.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.69
Conceded 3+ rate-0.77
Venue Conceded Mean-3.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-3.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.37
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.35
Goal Difference Std-0.74
Stability score-34.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.37
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate78.6%
Lead Points Retention0.72
Trailing Matches-34
Non-loss rate35.5%
Trailing Win Rate26.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.52
Second Half Goals For Mean1.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.61
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.09
Portability Score6.35
Rest days13.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.90
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match2.02
Current Team ELO365.6
Current Opponent ELO-365.6
Current ELO Difference731.3
Expected score0.78
History Matches-8
Residual Mean0.35
Overperformance25.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Sebat Gençlikspor
D
Somaspor0–0Sebat Gençlikspor4 Nov · away
Pick: Sebat Gençlikspor 49% · missed W
Ankaraspor0–3Sebat Gençlikspor1 Nov · away
Pick: Ankaraspor 41% · missed W
İnegölspor1–4Sebat Gençlikspor28 Oct · away
Pick: İnegölspor 43% · missed W
Sebat Gençlikspor3–2Muş Sport Klübü24 Oct · home
Pick: Muş Sport Klübü 40% · missed L
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik2–1Sebat Gençlikspor18 Oct · away
Pick: Sebat Gençlikspor 37% · missed Adana Demirspor
L
Muş Sport Klübü7–1Adana Demirspor31 Oct · away
Pick: Muş Sport Klübü 80% · hit L
Adana Demirspor0–1İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik24 Oct · home
Pick: İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 66% · hit L
68 Aksaray Belediyespor2–0Adana Demirspor18 Oct · away
Pick: 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 74% · hit L
Hakkari Zapspor6–1Adana Demirspor7 Oct · away
Pick: Adana Demirspor 41% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Sebat Gençlikspor and Adana Demirspor meet in 2. Lig on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Sebat Gençlikspor win 77.2%, draw 11.1%, Adana Demirspor win 11.7%. The pick is Sebat Gençlikspor win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.2%. Both teams to score: 45.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.