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Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg Germany Baden-Württemberg - 16 2026

Backnang vs CFR Pforzheim

Backnang Home · Elo 1,534
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
CFR Pforzheim Away · Elo 1,535
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Backnang win
Backnang winPick
46.7%
Draw
22.2%
CFR Pforzheim win
31.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.7%
No36.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.576.3%
Under 2.523.7%

How much we know

Backnang history55 matches
CFR Pforzheim history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.7%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Backnang are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,534 against 1,535. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.02 goals a game over 55 matches for Backnang, against 1.98 over 55 for CFR Pforzheim.

  • Defences are close

    Backnang concede 1.84 a game, CFR Pforzheim 1.84.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    78% of Backnang matches, against 76% for CFR Pforzheim. The model puts this match at 76% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Backnang
CFR Pforzheim@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1533.7
ELO
1534.8
55
ELO · Matches
55
1533.7
Current Team ELO
1534.8
1534.8
Current Opponent ELO
1533.7
-1.07
Current ELO Difference
1.07
0.50
Expected score
0.50
55
History Matches
55
0.03
Residual Mean
0.03
52.07
Overperformance
51.93
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.00
2.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.30
2.10
Goals for per game
1.70
1.70
Goals against per game
2.10
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.45
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
55
1.58
PPG
1.49
47.3%
Win rate
40.0%
16.4%
Draw rate
29.1%
36.4%
Loss rate
30.9%
89.1%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
78.2%
Over 2.5 rate
76.4%
52.7%
Over 3.5 rate
58.2%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.39
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
29
1.70
PPG
1.31
55.6%
Win rate
37.9%
3.7%
Draw rate
17.2%
40.7%
Loss rate
44.8%
81.5%
Over 1.5 rate
89.7%
81.5%
Over 2.5 rate
72.4%
55.6%
Over 3.5 rate
55.2%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.54
27
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.02
Goals for per game
1.98
92.7%
Scoring rate
92.7%
78.2%
BTTS rate
76.4%
2.04
Goals for per game
1.69
92.6%
Scoring rate
93.1%
70.4%
BTTS rate
72.4%
3.67
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
55
History Matches
55
2.02
Goals Mean
1.98
1.29
Goals Std
1.33
92.7%
Scored 1+ rate
92.7%
58.2%
Scored 2+ rate
56.4%
29.1%
Scored 3+ rate
29.1%
2.04
Venue Goals Mean
1.69
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.84
Goals against per game
1.84
85.5%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.81
Goals against per game
2.17
77.8%
Conceding rate
79.3%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
55
History Matches
55
1.84
Conceded Mean
1.84
1.35
Conceded Std
1.65
52.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.3%
27.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.5%
1.81
Venue Conceded Mean
2.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
7.3%
Failed-to-score rate
7.3%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
6.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
7.3%
Failed-to-score rate
7.3%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
6.9%
14.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
55
0.93
Result entropy
0.99
1.95
Goal Difference Std
2.39
7.32
Stability score
0.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
55
23
Lead Matches
26
78.3%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.78
12
Trailing Matches
18
25.0%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
1.13
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
1.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.85
Rest days
83.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
29
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
24
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
1.67
100.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.67
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
4
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.32
1.76
Portability PPG Range
0.86
43.76
Portability Score
60.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-1.07
PPG0.09
GF0.04
GA0.00
PPG1.33
PPG0.39
PPG1.40
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Failed-to-score rate0.5%
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate1.8%
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.55
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std-0.30
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate5.5%
Conceded 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.10
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.45
Stability score6.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.00
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate9.0%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate8.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.32
Portability PPG Range0.91
Portability Score-17.14
Rest days1.81
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.39
Current Team ELO-1.07
Current Opponent ELO1.07
Current ELO Difference-2.14
Expected score0.00
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Backnang

W
FV Ravensburg0–1Backnang7 Nov · away
Pick: Backnang 50% · hit
W
Backnang4–2Türkspor Neckarsulm31 Oct · home
Pick: Backnang 69% · hit
W
Essingen3–5Backnang24 Oct · away
Pick: Backnang 44% · hit
W
Backnang3–1Young Boys Reutlingen17 Oct · home
Pick: Backnang 66% · hit
W
FC 08 Villingen2–4Backnang29 Aug · away
Pick: Backnang 41% · hit

CFR Pforzheim

W
CFR Pforzheim1–0Normannia Gmünd7 Nov · home
Pick: CFR Pforzheim 61% · hit
D
Reutlingen1–1CFR Pforzheim31 Oct · away
Pick: Reutlingen 54% · missed
L
CFR Pforzheim0–2FC 08 Villingen24 Oct · home
Pick: FC 08 Villingen 46% · hit
L
FC Nöttingen4–1CFR Pforzheim16 Oct · away
Pick: CFR Pforzheim 42% · missed
L
CFR Pforzheim1–5Young Boys Reutlingen7 Oct · home
Pick: CFR Pforzheim 51% · missed

About this match

Backnang and CFR Pforzheim meet in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Backnang win 46.7%, draw 22.2%, CFR Pforzheim win 31.0%. The pick is Backnang win. Over 2.5 goals: 76.3%. Both teams to score: 63.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.