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Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg Germany Baden-Württemberg - 16 2026

Normannia Gmünd vs Karlsruhe II

Normannia Gmünd Home · Elo 1,434
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Karlsruhe II Away · Elo 1,462
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Karlsruhe II win
Normannia Gmünd win
36.9%
Draw
20.7%
Karlsruhe II winPick
42.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.1%
No36.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.0%
Under 2.535.0%

How much we know

Normannia Gmünd history55 matches
Karlsruhe II history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.4%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Karlsruhe II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Karlsruhe II are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,462 against 1,434. On rating alone Karlsruhe II would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.56 goals a game over 55 matches for Normannia Gmünd, against 1.52 over 42 for Karlsruhe II.

  • Defences are close

    Normannia Gmünd concede 1.75 a game, Karlsruhe II 1.90.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of Normannia Gmünd matches, against 64% for Karlsruhe II. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Normannia Gmünd
Karlsruhe II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1433.8
ELO
1461.7
55
ELO · Matches
42
1433.8
Current Team ELO
1461.7
1461.7
Current Opponent ELO
1433.8
-27.82
Current ELO Difference
27.82
0.46
Expected score
0.54
55
History Matches
42
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.05
45.80
Overperformance
46.93
-0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
0.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.60
3.00
Goals against per game
2.40
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
1.00
1.10
Goals for per game
1.70
2.30
Goals against per game
2.30
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.79
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
42
1.07
PPG
1.14
27.3%
Win rate
28.6%
25.5%
Draw rate
28.6%
47.3%
Loss rate
42.9%
92.7%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
65.5%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
21
0.86
PPG
1.29
21.4%
Win rate
28.6%
21.4%
Draw rate
42.9%
57.1%
Loss rate
28.6%
92.9%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
64.3%
Over 2.5 rate
47.6%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.34
28
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.56
Goals for per game
1.52
76.4%
Scoring rate
73.8%
65.5%
BTTS rate
64.3%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.52
71.4%
Scoring rate
66.7%
64.3%
BTTS rate
52.4%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.67
33.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
55
History Matches
42
1.56
Goals Mean
1.52
1.41
Goals Std
1.48
76.4%
Scored 1+ rate
73.8%
41.8%
Scored 2+ rate
38.1%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
19.0%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.75
Goals against per game
1.90
87.3%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.93
Goals against per game
1.38
92.9%
Conceding rate
76.2%
3.33
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
42
1.75
Conceded Mean
1.90
1.08
Conceded Std
1.44
60.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.4%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.2%
1.93
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
12.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
7.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
12.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
7.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
12.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
42
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
1.98
Goal Difference Std
2.22
3.80
Stability score
1.79
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
42
16
Lead Matches
14
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.67
22
Trailing Matches
14
31.8%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.85
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.14
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.00
Rest days
90.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
29
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
24
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
0.33
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
100.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.33
-2.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
5
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.38
1.36
Portability PPG Range
0.93
47.16
Portability Score
56.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-27.82
PPG-0.07
GF0.04
GA-0.16
PPG-0.33
PPG-0.43
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches13
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate2.6%
Scored 2+ rate3.7%
Scored 3+ rate1.0%
Venue Goals Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.16
History Matches13
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std-0.36
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate7.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean0.55
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.52
History Matches13
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.24
Stability score2.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.20
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate5.4%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate10.4%
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.33
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.43
Portability Score-9.65
Rest days-6.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.67
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO-27.82
Current Opponent ELO27.82
Current ELO Difference-55.63
Expected score-0.08
History Matches13
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-1.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Normannia Gmünd

L
CFR Pforzheim1–0Normannia Gmünd7 Nov · away
Pick: CFR Pforzheim 61% · hit
L
Normannia Gmünd1–3FV Ravensburg31 Oct · home
Pick: FV Ravensburg 47% · hit
W
Türkspor Neckarsulm2–4Normannia Gmünd25 Oct · away
Pick: Türkspor Neckarsulm 49% · missed
L
Normannia Gmünd1–3Essingen17 Oct · home
Pick: Essingen 52% · hit
L
Reutlingen3–0Normannia Gmünd29 Aug · away
Pick: Reutlingen 61% · hit

Karlsruhe II

W
Karlsruhe II2–1FC Nöttingen3 Nov · home
Pick: FC Nöttingen 45% · missed
D
FC 08 Villingen1–1Karlsruhe II31 Oct · away
Pick: FC 08 Villingen 64% · missed
W
Teningen2–4Karlsruhe II17 Oct · away
Pick: Teningen 42% · missed
W
Karlsruhe II2–1Balingen4 Oct · home
Pick: Karlsruhe II 49% · hit
W
Karlsruhe II1–0TSV Singen30 Aug · home
Pick: Karlsruhe II 41% · hit

About this match

Normannia Gmünd and Karlsruhe II meet in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Normannia Gmünd win 36.9%, draw 20.7%, Karlsruhe II win 42.4%. The pick is Karlsruhe II win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.0%. Both teams to score: 63.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.