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Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg Germany Baden-Württemberg - 16 2026

Bahlinger SC vs Essingen

Bahlinger SC Home · Elo 1,416
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Essingen Away · Elo 1,547
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bahlinger SC win
Bahlinger SC winPick
40.4%
Draw
24.2%
Essingen win
35.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.5%
No39.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.0%
Under 2.537.0%

How much we know

Bahlinger SC history60 matches
Essingen history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.4%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Bahlinger SC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Essingen are rated 132 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,547 against 1,416. On rating alone Essingen would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Essingen score more

    1.28 goals a game over 60 matches for Bahlinger SC, against 1.79 over 57 for Essingen.

  • Essingen concede fewer

    Bahlinger SC concede 2.03 a game, Essingen 1.68.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Bahlinger SC matches, against 65% for Essingen. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bahlinger SC
Essingen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1415.5
ELO
1547.2
60
ELO · Matches
57
1415.5
Current Team ELO
1547.2
1547.2
Current Opponent ELO
1415.5
-131.7
Current ELO Difference
131.7
0.32
Expected score
0.68
60
History Matches
57
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.04
45.76
Overperformance
53.09
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.80
2.20
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.10
Goals for per game
1.80
2.10
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.83
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
57
0.97
PPG
1.60
23.3%
Win rate
43.9%
26.7%
Draw rate
28.1%
50.0%
Loss rate
28.1%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
64.9%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
42.1%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
28
1.09
PPG
1.46
26.5%
Win rate
35.7%
29.4%
Draw rate
39.3%
44.1%
Loss rate
25.0%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
70.6%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
44.1%
Over 3.5 rate
39.3%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
34
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.28
Goals for per game
1.79
65.0%
Scoring rate
84.2%
58.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.62
Goals for per game
1.57
73.5%
Scoring rate
89.3%
67.6%
BTTS rate
75.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
57
1.28
Goals Mean
1.79
1.34
Goals Std
1.51
65.0%
Scored 1+ rate
84.2%
35.0%
Scored 2+ rate
45.6%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
24.6%
1.62
Venue Goals Mean
1.57
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.03
Goals against per game
1.68
88.3%
Conceding rate
78.9%
1.94
Goals against per game
1.68
88.2%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
57
2.03
Conceded Mean
1.68
1.34
Conceded Std
1.54
63.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.4%
31.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.5%
1.94
Venue Conceded Mean
1.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
11.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
35.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
10.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
11.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
35.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
10.7%
11.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
57
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
2.01
Goal Difference Std
2.36
5.46
Stability score
2.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
57
12
Lead Matches
16
33.3%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.44
Lead Points Retention
0.75
23
Trailing Matches
25
21.7%
Non-loss rate
48.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.19
1.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.00
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
45
Normal Rest History Matches
28
0.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
11
Long Rest History Matches
27
0.91
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.33
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
100.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
7
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.74
Portability PPG Std
0.24
1.95
Portability PPG Range
0.60
40.46
Portability Score
67.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-131.7
PPG-0.63
GF-0.51
GA0.35
PPG-0.33
PPG-0.38
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate19.2%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate15.8%
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.51
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.19
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.59
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.35
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate16.0%
Conceded 3+ rate14.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.46
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.35
Stability score3.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.94
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.29
Lead Points Retention-0.31
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.26
Trailing Win Rate-0.16
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.33
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.49
Portability PPG Range1.35
Portability Score-26.74
Rest days-1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.77
Long Rest History Matches-16
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.72
Current Team ELO-131.7
Current Opponent ELO131.7
Current ELO Difference-263.3
Expected score-0.36
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bahlinger SC

W
Bahlinger SC3–0TSV Singen31 Oct · home
Pick: Bahlinger SC 57% · hit
W
Balingen0–2Bahlinger SC24 Oct · away
Pick: Bahlinger SC 43% · hit
W
FC Holzhausen0–3Bahlinger SC17 Oct · away
Pick: Bahlinger SC 47% · hit
L
1. FC Muhlhausen5–2Bahlinger SC30 Aug · away
Pick: Bahlinger SC 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Essingen

L
Essingen2–3FC Holzhausen7 Nov · home
Pick: Essingen 64% · missed
D
Oberachern0–0Essingen31 Oct · away
Pick: Oberachern 50% · missed
L
Essingen3–5Backnang24 Oct · home
Pick: Backnang 44% · hit
W
Normannia Gmünd1–3Essingen17 Oct · away
Pick: Essingen 52% · hit
L
FV Ravensburg3–0Essingen29 Aug · away
Pick: Essingen 42% · missed

About this match

Bahlinger SC and Essingen meet in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Bahlinger SC win 40.4%, draw 24.2%, Essingen win 35.3%. The pick is Bahlinger SC win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.0%. Both teams to score: 60.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.