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Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg Germany Baden-Württemberg - 16 2026

Balingen vs FC Nöttingen

Balingen Home · Elo 1,420
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Nöttingen Away · Elo 1,528
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Nöttingen win
Balingen win
32.9%
Draw
18.7%
FC Nöttingen winPick
48.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.7%
No36.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.7%
Under 2.529.3%

How much we know

Balingen history61 matches
FC Nöttingen history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.4%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why FC Nöttingen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Nöttingen are rated 109 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,528 against 1,420. On rating alone FC Nöttingen would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • FC Nöttingen score more

    1.51 goals a game over 61 matches for Balingen, against 2.09 over 54 for FC Nöttingen.

  • FC Nöttingen concede fewer

    Balingen concede 2.31 a game, FC Nöttingen 1.76.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    72% of Balingen matches, against 69% for FC Nöttingen. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Balingen
FC Nöttingen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1419.5
ELO
1528.1
61
ELO · Matches
54
1419.5
Current Team ELO
1528.1
1528.1
Current Opponent ELO
1419.5
-108.5
Current ELO Difference
108.5
0.35
Expected score
0.65
61
History Matches
54
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.02
45.63
Overperformance
51.10
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
3.80
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
1.30
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
3.00
Goals against per game
1.70
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.61
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
54
1.16
PPG
1.56
32.8%
Win rate
48.1%
18.0%
Draw rate
11.1%
49.2%
Loss rate
40.7%
90.2%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
72.1%
Over 2.5 rate
68.5%
52.5%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
30
1.15
PPG
1.43
33.3%
Win rate
46.7%
15.2%
Draw rate
3.3%
51.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
93.9%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
69.7%
Over 2.5 rate
76.7%
48.5%
Over 3.5 rate
63.3%
2.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.92
33
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.51
Goals for per game
2.09
70.5%
Scoring rate
79.6%
62.3%
BTTS rate
59.3%
1.45
Goals for per game
2.07
72.7%
Scoring rate
76.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
63.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
61
History Matches
54
1.51
Goals Mean
2.09
1.41
Goals Std
1.92
70.5%
Scored 1+ rate
79.6%
41.0%
Scored 2+ rate
51.9%
24.6%
Scored 3+ rate
31.5%
1.45
Venue Goals Mean
2.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.31
Goals against per game
1.76
85.2%
Conceding rate
75.9%
2.21
Goals against per game
2.23
90.9%
Conceding rate
83.3%
2.67
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
61
History Matches
54
2.31
Conceded Mean
1.76
1.79
Conceded Std
1.57
63.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
34.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.8%
2.21
Venue Conceded Mean
2.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
29.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.4%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
29.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.4%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
54
0.93
Result entropy
0.88
2.52
Goal Difference Std
2.76
6.83
Stability score
12.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
53
15
Lead Matches
23
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
87.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.90
29
Trailing Matches
17
24.1%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
10.3%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
1.04
1.02
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.08
1.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.08
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.90
Rest days
84.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
40
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
18
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
7
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.79
Portability PPG Std
0.29
2.07
Portability PPG Range
0.71
38.88
Portability Score
63.26
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-108.5
PPG-0.39
GF-0.58
GA0.55
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.28
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate9.1%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate3.9%
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.58
Goals Std-0.51
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.37
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.55
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate13.9%
Conceded 3+ rate6.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.51
History Matches7
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score-5.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.44
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate0.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.33
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.50
Portability PPG Range1.37
Portability Score-24.38
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO-108.5
Current Opponent ELO108.5
Current ELO Difference-217.1
Expected score-0.30
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Balingen

W
Balingen1–0TSV Singen7 Nov · home
Pick: TSV Singen 45% · missed
W
Teningen0–1Balingen31 Oct · away
Pick: Teningen 47% · missed
L
Balingen0–2Bahlinger SC24 Oct · home
Pick: Bahlinger SC 43% · hit
D
1. FC Muhlhausen0–0Balingen18 Oct · away
Pick: Balingen 38% · missed
L
Karlsruhe II2–1Balingen4 Oct · away
Pick: Karlsruhe II 49% · hit

FC Nöttingen

W
Teningen1–4FC Nöttingen7 Nov · away
Pick: FC Nöttingen 47% · hit
L
Karlsruhe II2–1FC Nöttingen3 Nov · away
Pick: FC Nöttingen 45% · missed
L
FC Nöttingen1–21. FC Muhlhausen30 Oct · home
Pick: FC Nöttingen 71% · missed
W
FC Nöttingen4–1CFR Pforzheim16 Oct · home
Pick: CFR Pforzheim 42% · missed
L
FC Nöttingen0–1Oberachern29 Aug · home
Pick: Oberachern 44% · hit

About this match

Balingen and FC Nöttingen meet in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Balingen win 32.9%, draw 18.7%, FC Nöttingen win 48.4%. The pick is FC Nöttingen win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.7%. Both teams to score: 63.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.