Borac Cacak vs Loznica
Match result probability Model pick: Borac Cacak win
Borac Cacak winPick
46.0%
Draw
30.6%
Loznica win
23.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes43.2%
No56.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.542.2%
Under 2.557.8%
How much we know
Borac Cacak history66 matches
Loznica history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Borac Cacak
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.0%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Borac Cacak are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,547 against 1,559. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Borac Cacak score more
1.21 goals a game over 66 matches for Borac Cacak, against 0.96 over 55 for Loznica.
-
Loznica concede fewer
Borac Cacak concede 1.18 a game, Loznica 0.84.
-
Borac Cacak games more often go over 2.5 goals
41% of Borac Cacak matches, against 27% for Loznica. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Loznica@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1546.5
ELO
1559.4
66
ELO · Matches
55
1546.5
Current Team ELO
1559.4
1559.4
Current Opponent ELO
1546.5
-12.85
Current ELO Difference
12.85
0.48
Expected score
0.52
66
History Matches
55
0.04
Residual Mean
0.05
53.00
Overperformance
53.86
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.50
1.60
Goals for per game
0.90
0.90
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.78
Overall performance9 signals 90
66
Matches
55
1.36
PPG
1.51
37.9%
Win rate
40.0%
22.7%
Draw rate
30.9%
39.4%
Loss rate
29.1%
69.7%
Over 1.5 rate
58.2%
40.9%
Over 2.5 rate
27.3%
21.2%
Over 3.5 rate
7.3%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals 100
34
Matches
28
1.53
PPG
1.21
41.2%
Win rate
28.6%
29.4%
Draw rate
35.7%
29.4%
Loss rate
35.7%
58.8%
Over 1.5 rate
60.7%
35.3%
Over 2.5 rate
35.7%
8.8%
Over 3.5 rate
7.1%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
34
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.21
Goals for per game
0.96
71.2%
Scoring rate
63.6%
43.9%
BTTS rate
34.5%
1.09
Goals for per game
0.86
67.6%
Scoring rate
57.1%
35.3%
BTTS rate
42.9%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
100.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
66
History Matches
55
1.21
Goals Mean
0.96
1.11
Goals Std
0.87
71.2%
Scored 1+ rate
63.6%
31.8%
Scored 2+ rate
29.1%
12.1%
Scored 3+ rate
3.6%
1.09
Venue Goals Mean
0.86
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.18
Goals against per game
0.84
63.6%
Conceding rate
54.5%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.04
52.9%
Conceding rate
67.9%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
66
History Matches
55
1.18
Conceded Mean
0.84
1.10
Conceded Std
1.00
39.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
13.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.5%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
66
History Matches
55
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.41
2.47
Stability score
0.91
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
66
Eligible Matches
54
17
Lead Matches
16
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.81
28
Trailing Matches
10
25.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.30
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
82.96
Rest days
83.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
47
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
18
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals 170
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
80.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
0.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.40
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.40
Current Competition PPG
0.80
0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.20
6
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.39
1.40
Portability PPG Range
0.94
45.85
Portability Score
56.44
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
66
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-12.85
PPG-0.15
GF0.25
GA0.35
PPG1.60
PPG0.32
PPG1.60
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate14.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches11
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate7.6%
Scored 2+ rate2.7%
Scored 3+ rate8.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.08
History Matches11
Conceded Mean0.35
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate19.4%
Conceded 3+ rate8.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches11
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score1.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.64
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate1.5%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches18
Non-loss rate5.0%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.20
Portability PPG Range0.46
Portability Score-10.59
Rest days-0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.19
Current Team ELO-12.85
Current Opponent ELO12.85
Current ELO Difference-25.70
Expected score-0.04
History Matches11
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Borac Cacak
W
Borac Cacak2–0Semendrija 19241 Nov · home
Pick: Borac Cacak 37% · hit L
Borac Cacak1–2Radnik Surdulica28 Oct · home
Pick: Borac Cacak 38% · missed D
Borac Cacak0–0Napredak24 Oct · home
Pick: Borac Cacak 54% · missed D
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV3–3Borac Cacak19 Oct · away
Pick: Borac Cacak 43% · missed L
Javor3–1Borac Cacak4 Oct · away
Pick: Javor 42% · hit Loznica
L
Loznica1–2Dubočica7 Nov · home
Pick: Loznica 45% · missed L
Naftagas1–0Loznica1 Nov · away
Pick: Naftagas 43% · hit L
Loznica1–2Cukaricki28 Oct · home
Pick: Cukaricki 40% · hit D
Loznica1–1OFK Vršac24 Oct · home
Pick: Loznica 36% · missed D
FK Vozdovac1–1Loznica18 Oct · away
Pick: FK Vozdovac 41% · missed About this match
Borac Cacak and Loznica meet in Prva Liga on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Gradski stadion, Cacak. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Borac Cacak win 46.0%, draw 30.6%, Loznica win 23.4%. The pick is Borac Cacak win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.2%. Both teams to score: 43.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.