Metalac GM vs Napredak
Match result probability Model pick: Metalac GM win
Metalac GM winPick
47.9%
Draw
27.1%
Napredak win
25.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes45.1%
No54.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.546.1%
Under 2.553.9%
How much we know
Metalac GM history46 matches
Napredak history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Metalac GM
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.9%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Metalac GM are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Metalac GM are rated 202 Elo points higher
Elo 1,582 against 1,380. On rating alone Metalac GM would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.
-
Metalac GM score more
1.39 goals a game over 46 matches for Metalac GM, against 0.91 over 69 for Napredak.
-
Metalac GM concede fewer
Metalac GM concede 0.74 a game, Napredak 1.70.
-
Napredak games more often go over 2.5 goals
35% of Metalac GM matches, against 52% for Napredak. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Napredak@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1581.7
ELO
1379.7
46
ELO · Matches
69
1581.7
Current Team ELO
1379.7
1379.7
Current Opponent ELO
1581.7
202.0
Current ELO Difference
-202.0
0.76
Expected score
0.24
46
History Matches
69
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.08
56.25
Overperformance
44.06
-0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.10
Goals for per game
1.10
1.20
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals 90
46
Matches
69
1.93
PPG
0.84
56.5%
Win rate
20.3%
23.9%
Draw rate
23.2%
19.6%
Loss rate
56.5%
56.5%
Over 1.5 rate
68.1%
34.8%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
15.2%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
32
1.96
PPG
0.50
58.3%
Win rate
9.4%
20.8%
Draw rate
21.9%
20.8%
Loss rate
68.8%
58.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.1%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
24
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.39
Goals for per game
0.91
78.3%
Scoring rate
60.9%
39.1%
BTTS rate
49.3%
1.58
Goals for per game
0.75
79.2%
Scoring rate
53.1%
37.5%
BTTS rate
43.8%
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
60.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
46
History Matches
69
1.39
Goals Mean
0.91
1.15
Goals Std
0.88
78.3%
Scored 1+ rate
60.9%
37.0%
Scored 2+ rate
26.1%
17.4%
Scored 3+ rate
4.3%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
0.75
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.74
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Conceding rate
79.7%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.94
45.8%
Conceding rate
78.1%
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
46
History Matches
69
0.74
Conceded Mean
1.70
1.03
Conceded Std
1.45
13.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.9%
4.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.6%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.94
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.3%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
54.2%
Clean-sheet rate
21.9%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
46.9%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.3%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
54.2%
Clean-sheet rate
21.9%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
46.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
46
History Matches
69
0.90
Result entropy
0.90
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.64
10.45
Stability score
10.34
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
45
Eligible Matches
69
20
Lead Matches
10
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.67
4
Trailing Matches
32
25.0%
Non-loss rate
15.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.00
Rest days
82.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.87
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.83
14
Long Rest History Matches
31
2.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.77
Competition & season17 signals 170
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
40.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.80
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.80
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.40
4
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.56
1.58
Portability PPG Range
1.51
43.45
Portability Score
47.04
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
46
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO202.0
PPG1.09
GF0.48
GA-0.96
PPG-1.20
PPG1.46
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-23
Clean-sheet rate29.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate32.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches-23
Goals Mean0.48
Goals Std0.27
Scored 1+ rate17.4%
Scored 2+ rate10.9%
Scored 3+ rate13.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.83
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.11
History Matches-23
Conceded Mean-0.96
Conceded Std-0.42
Clean-sheet rate29.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.32
Conceded 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Conceded Mean-1.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches-23
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score0.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.05
Eligible Matches-24
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate25.0%
Lead Points Retention0.22
Trailing Matches-28
Non-loss rate9.4%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-24
First Half Goals For Mean0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.06
Portability Score-3.59
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.04
Long Rest History Matches-17
Long Rest Points Per Match1.44
Current Team ELO202.0
Current Opponent ELO-202.0
Current ELO Difference404.0
Expected score0.52
History Matches-23
Residual Mean0.17
Overperformance12.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.48
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Metalac GM
L
Metalac GM1–3Jedinstvo Ub2 Nov · home
Pick: Metalac GM 52% · missed L
Metalac GM1–2Javor24 Oct · home
Pick: Javor 45% · hit L
TSC Backa Topola5–1Metalac GM17 Oct · away
Pick: TSC Backa Topola 51% · hit D
OFK Vršac0–0Metalac GM4 Oct · away
Pick: OFK Vršac 47% · missed L
Metalac GM2–4Loznica29 Aug · home
Pick: Metalac GM 41% · missed Napredak
L
Grafičar2–0Napredak2 Nov · away
Pick: Grafičar 44% · hit L
Macva2–0Napredak27 Oct · away
Pick: Macva 49% · hit D
Borac Cacak0–0Napredak24 Oct · away
Pick: Borac Cacak 54% · missed W
Napredak1–0Dubočica17 Oct · home
Pick: Napredak 48% · hit W
Napredak3–0Loznica5 Oct · home
Pick: Napredak 43% · hit About this match
Metalac GM and Napredak meet in Prva Liga on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Metalac GM win 47.9%, draw 27.1%, Napredak win 25.0%. The pick is Metalac GM win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.1%. Both teams to score: 45.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.