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Prva Liga Serbia Round 18 2026

Dubočica vs Naftagas

Dubočica Home · Elo 1,437
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Naftagas Away · Elo 1,588
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dubočica win
Dubočica winPick
42.9%
Draw
30.1%
Naftagas win
27.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.8%
No49.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.4%
Under 2.552.6%

How much we know

Dubočica history63 matches
Naftagas history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.9%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Dubočica are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Naftagas are rated 151 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,588 against 1,437. On rating alone Naftagas would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Naftagas score more

    1.13 goals a game over 63 matches for Dubočica, against 1.58 over 50 for Naftagas.

  • Naftagas concede fewer

    Dubočica concede 1.49 a game, Naftagas 1.02.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Dubočica matches, against 50% for Naftagas. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dubočica
Naftagas@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1437.1
ELO
1588.5
63
ELO · Matches
50
1437.1
Current Team ELO
1588.5
1588.5
Current Opponent ELO
1437.1
-151.4
Current ELO Difference
151.4
0.29
Expected score
0.71
63
History Matches
50
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.08
46.27
Overperformance
55.96
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.60
0.90
Goals for per game
1.90
1.60
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.64
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
50
1.08
PPG
1.86
27.0%
Win rate
58.0%
27.0%
Draw rate
12.0%
46.0%
Loss rate
30.0%
74.6%
Over 1.5 rate
66.0%
50.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
27.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.0%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
26
1.32
PPG
1.65
32.3%
Win rate
50.0%
35.5%
Draw rate
15.4%
32.3%
Loss rate
34.6%
71.0%
Over 1.5 rate
61.5%
35.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
22.6%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
31
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
1.58
73.0%
Scoring rate
76.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
42.0%
1.26
Goals for per game
1.38
77.4%
Scoring rate
69.2%
54.8%
BTTS rate
42.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
60.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
63
History Matches
50
1.13
Goals Mean
1.58
0.97
Goals Std
1.37
73.0%
Scored 1+ rate
76.0%
27.0%
Scored 2+ rate
44.0%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
24.0%
1.26
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.49
Goals against per game
1.02
77.8%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.08
67.7%
Conceding rate
61.5%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
63
History Matches
50
1.49
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.21
Conceded Std
1.09
42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.0%
20.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
50
0.97
Result entropy
0.85
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.79
3.14
Stability score
15.21
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
45
21
Lead Matches
18
47.6%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.59
Lead Points Retention
0.91
13
Trailing Matches
6
7.7%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
1.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.96
Rest days
82.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
48
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.79
14
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.80
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
0.80
-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.58
0.45
Portability PPG Range
1.42
71.17
Portability Score
46.27
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-151.4
PPG-0.78
GF-0.45
GA0.47
PPG0.60
PPG-0.33
PPG0.60
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate3.0%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches13
Goals Mean-0.45
Goals Std-0.40
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.81
History Matches13
Conceded Mean0.47
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Conceded 2+ rate14.9%
Conceded 3+ rate10.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches13
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score-12.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.59
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.41
Lead Points Retention-0.32
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.26
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.20
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.38
Portability PPG Range-0.97
Portability Score24.90
Rest days0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.05
Current Team ELO-151.4
Current Opponent ELO151.4
Current ELO Difference-302.7
Expected score-0.41
History Matches13
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-9.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dubočica

W
Loznica1–2Dubočica7 Nov · away
Pick: Loznica 45% · missed
D
Dubočica0–0FK Vozdovac2 Nov · home
Pick: Dubočica 40% · missed
W
Dubočica1–0Semendrija 192423 Oct · home
Pick: Semendrija 1924 44% · missed
L
Napredak1–0Dubočica17 Oct · away
Pick: Napredak 48% · hit
D
Jedinstvo Ub0–0Dubočica4 Oct · away
Pick: Dubočica 41% · missed

Naftagas

D
Naftagas1–1OFK Vršac7 Nov · home
Pick: OFK Vršac 38% · missed
W
Naftagas1–0Loznica1 Nov · home
Pick: Naftagas 43% · hit
W
Naftagas2–1FK Vozdovac24 Oct · home
Pick: Naftagas 40% · hit
D
Semendrija 19241–1Naftagas17 Oct · away
Pick: Semendrija 1924 56% · missed
W
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV0–6Naftagas4 Oct · away
Pick: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 44% · missed

About this match

Dubočica and Naftagas meet in Prva Liga on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Dubočica win 42.9%, draw 30.1%, Naftagas win 27.0%. The pick is Dubočica win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.4%. Both teams to score: 50.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.