TSC Backa Topola vs Jedinstvo Ub
Match result probability Model pick: TSC Backa Topola win
TSC Backa Topola winPick
62.8%
Draw
18.8%
Jedinstvo Ub win
18.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.6%
No44.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.559.4%
Under 2.540.6%
How much we know
TSC Backa Topola history72 matches
Jedinstvo Ub history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours TSC Backa Topola
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.8%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.
Why TSC Backa Topola are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,481 against 1,462. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.29 goals a game over 72 matches for TSC Backa Topola, against 1.32 over 62 for Jedinstvo Ub.
-
Defences are close
TSC Backa Topola concede 1.53 a game, Jedinstvo Ub 1.55.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
57% of TSC Backa Topola matches, against 56% for Jedinstvo Ub. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jedinstvo Ub@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1481.3
ELO
1461.6
72
ELO · Matches
62
1481.3
Current Team ELO
1461.6
1461.6
Current Opponent ELO
1481.3
19.73
Current ELO Difference
-19.73
0.53
Expected score
0.47
72
History Matches
62
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
48.33
Overperformance
47.47
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.31
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.30
1.90
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
2.30
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.51
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals 90
72
Matches
62
1.17
PPG
1.19
30.6%
Win rate
32.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
22.6%
44.4%
Loss rate
45.2%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
74.2%
56.9%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
40.3%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals 100
32
Matches
32
1.38
PPG
1.19
37.5%
Win rate
34.4%
25.0%
Draw rate
15.6%
37.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
46.9%
28.1%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
32
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.29
Goals for per game
1.32
76.4%
Scoring rate
66.1%
66.7%
BTTS rate
53.2%
1.41
Goals for per game
1.09
81.3%
Scoring rate
53.1%
65.6%
BTTS rate
43.8%
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
72
History Matches
62
1.29
Goals Mean
1.32
1.16
Goals Std
1.27
76.4%
Scored 1+ rate
66.1%
31.9%
Scored 2+ rate
38.7%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
19.4%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
1.09
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.53
Goals against per game
1.55
80.6%
Conceding rate
82.3%
1.31
Goals against per game
1.44
75.0%
Conceding rate
84.4%
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
72
History Matches
62
1.53
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.15
Conceded Std
1.17
48.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.5%
13.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.0%
1.31
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.7%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
46.9%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.7%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
46.9%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
72
History Matches
62
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.83
2.67
Stability score
3.52
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
69
Eligible Matches
62
18
Lead Matches
16
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.59
Lead Points Retention
0.92
23
Trailing Matches
27
21.7%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
8.7%
Trailing Win Rate
3.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
82.92
Rest days
82.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
43
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
26
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.15
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.06
Competition & season17 signals 170
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
0.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.20
Current Competition PPG
0.60
0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
8
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.63
Portability PPG Std
0.42
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.15
44.06
Portability Score
54.51
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
72
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO19.73
PPG-0.03
GF-0.03
GA-0.02
PPG1.60
PPG0.19
PPG1.60
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate1.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate9.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches10
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate10.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.76
History Matches10
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate1.7%
Conceded 2+ rate5.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.68
History Matches10
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.24
Stability score-0.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.19
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.38
Lead Points Retention-0.32
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate0.00
Trailing Win Rate5.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.60
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.22
Portability PPG Range0.85
Portability Score-10.45
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.10
Current Team ELO19.73
Current Opponent ELO-19.73
Current ELO Difference39.45
Expected score0.06
History Matches10
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.39
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
TSC Backa Topola
L
OFK Vršac2–1TSC Backa Topola1 Nov · away
Pick: OFK Vršac 40% · hit W
Semendrija 19242–3TSC Backa Topola28 Oct · away
Pick: TSC Backa Topola 39% · hit W
Teleoptik1–2TSC Backa Topola23 Oct · away
Pick: TSC Backa Topola 48% · hit W
TSC Backa Topola5–1Metalac GM17 Oct · home
Pick: TSC Backa Topola 51% · hit W
TSC Backa Topola4–1Grafičar5 Oct · home
Pick: TSC Backa Topola 51% · hit Jedinstvo Ub
W
Metalac GM1–3Jedinstvo Ub2 Nov · away
Pick: Metalac GM 52% · missed L
Jedinstvo Ub1–5FK Crvena Zvezda28 Oct · home
Pick: FK Crvena Zvezda 63% · hit W
OFK Bor 19190–2Jedinstvo Ub24 Oct · away
Pick: Jedinstvo Ub 45% · hit W
Jedinstvo Ub3–1Grafičar17 Oct · home
Pick: Grafičar 41% · missed D
Jedinstvo Ub0–0Dubočica4 Oct · home
Pick: Dubočica 41% · missed About this match
TSC Backa Topola and Jedinstvo Ub meet in Prva Liga on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at TSC Arena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: TSC Backa Topola win 62.8%, draw 18.8%, Jedinstvo Ub win 18.4%. The pick is TSC Backa Topola win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.4%. Both teams to score: 55.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.