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Prva Liga Serbia Round 18 2026

Grafičar vs FK Vozdovac

Grafičar Home · Elo 1,476
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
FK Vozdovac Away · Elo 1,551
Stadion Rajko Mit, Belgrade Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Grafičar win
Grafičar winPick
38.7%
Draw
31.3%
FK Vozdovac win
30.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.5%
No51.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.9%
Under 2.554.1%

How much we know

Grafičar history71 matches
FK Vozdovac history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.7%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Grafičar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FK Vozdovac are rated 75 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,551 against 1,476. On rating alone FK Vozdovac would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • FK Vozdovac score more

    1.11 goals a game over 71 matches for Grafičar, against 1.42 over 64 for FK Vozdovac.

  • FK Vozdovac concede fewer

    Grafičar concede 1.20 a game, FK Vozdovac 1.02.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Grafičar matches, against 41% for FK Vozdovac. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Grafičar
FK Vozdovac@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1476.2
ELO
1550.8
71
ELO · Matches
64
1476.2
Current Team ELO
1550.8
1550.8
Current Opponent ELO
1476.2
-74.57
Current ELO Difference
74.57
0.39
Expected score
0.61
71
History Matches
64
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.04
48.97
Overperformance
52.71
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.30
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
64
1.32
PPG
1.55
33.8%
Win rate
40.6%
31.0%
Draw rate
32.8%
35.2%
Loss rate
26.6%
73.2%
Over 1.5 rate
67.2%
42.3%
Over 2.5 rate
40.6%
19.7%
Over 3.5 rate
20.3%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
33
1.46
PPG
1.39
37.8%
Win rate
36.4%
32.4%
Draw rate
30.3%
29.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
78.4%
Over 1.5 rate
69.7%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
48.5%
21.6%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
37
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.11
Goals for per game
1.42
66.2%
Scoring rate
70.3%
46.5%
BTTS rate
48.4%
1.35
Goals for per game
1.36
73.0%
Scoring rate
69.7%
51.4%
BTTS rate
60.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
80.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
71
History Matches
64
1.11
Goals Mean
1.42
1.04
Goals Std
1.41
66.2%
Scored 1+ rate
70.3%
31.0%
Scored 2+ rate
40.6%
12.7%
Scored 3+ rate
17.2%
1.35
Venue Goals Mean
1.36
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.20
Goals against per game
1.02
69.0%
Conceding rate
67.2%
1.11
Goals against per game
1.24
67.6%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
71
History Matches
64
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.13
Conceded Std
0.98
32.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.4%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.8%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
33.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
33.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
64
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.65
0.13
Stability score
1.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
63
17
Lead Matches
20
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.93
22
Trailing Matches
15
27.3%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.08
Rest days
83.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
50
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
19
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.37
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.61
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
20.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.80
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.80
Current Competition PPG
0.80
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.95
Portability PPG Range
1.06
59.18
Portability Score
56.73
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-74.57
PPG-0.22
GF-0.31
GA0.18
PPG0.00
PPG0.07
PPG0.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate4.1%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.31
Goals Std-0.37
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.75
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.18
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate9.0%
Conceded 3+ rate4.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.32
History Matches7
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score-1.23
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.26
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.14
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate4.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.11
Portability Score2.45
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Current Team ELO-74.57
Current Opponent ELO74.57
Current ELO Difference-149.1
Expected score-0.21
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Grafičar

W
Semendrija 19241–5Grafičar7 Nov · away
Pick: Semendrija 1924 50% · missed
W
Grafičar2–0Napredak2 Nov · home
Pick: Grafičar 44% · hit
W
Grafičar2–0IMT Novi Beograd28 Oct · home
Pick: Grafičar 40% · hit
L
Grafičar0–2FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV24 Oct · home
Pick: Grafičar 46% · missed
L
Jedinstvo Ub3–1Grafičar17 Oct · away
Pick: Grafičar 41% · missed

FK Vozdovac

D
Dubočica0–0FK Vozdovac2 Nov · away
Pick: Dubočica 40% · missed
L
FK Vozdovac1–3Novi Pazar28 Oct · home
Pick: Novi Pazar 40% · hit
L
Naftagas2–1FK Vozdovac24 Oct · away
Pick: Naftagas 40% · hit
D
FK Vozdovac1–1Loznica18 Oct · home
Pick: FK Vozdovac 41% · missed
L
Semendrija 19241–0FK Vozdovac5 Oct · away
Pick: Semendrija 1924 50% · hit

About this match

Grafičar and FK Vozdovac meet in Prva Liga on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Rajko Mit, Belgrade. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Grafičar win 38.7%, draw 31.3%, FK Vozdovac win 30.0%. The pick is Grafičar win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.9%. Both teams to score: 48.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.