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League Two England Round 15 2026

Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield

Bristol Rovers Home · Elo 1,506
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chesterfield Away · Elo 1,539
Memorial Stadium, Bristol Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bristol Rovers win
Bristol Rovers winPick
42.1%
Draw
27.1%
Chesterfield win
30.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.4%
No44.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.6%
Under 2.546.4%

How much we know

Bristol Rovers history89 matches
Chesterfield history85 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Bristol Rovers are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chesterfield are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,539 against 1,506. On rating alone Chesterfield would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.29 goals a game over 89 matches for Bristol Rovers, against 1.39 over 85 for Chesterfield.

  • Chesterfield concede fewer

    Bristol Rovers concede 1.54 a game, Chesterfield 1.34.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Bristol Rovers matches, against 48% for Chesterfield. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bristol Rovers
Chesterfield@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1506.0
ELO
1539.2
89
ELO · Matches
85
1506.0
Current Team ELO
1539.2
1539.2
Current Opponent ELO
1506.0
-33.15
Current ELO Difference
33.15
0.45
Expected score
0.55
89
History Matches
85
0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
50.58
Overperformance
51.71
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
2.20
Goals for per game
0.80
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.70
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.34
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
89
Matches
85
1.26
PPG
1.48
37.1%
Win rate
40.0%
14.6%
Draw rate
28.2%
48.3%
Loss rate
31.8%
73.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
53.9%
Over 2.5 rate
48.2%
32.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.6%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
45
Matches
43
1.33
PPG
1.37
40.0%
Win rate
37.2%
13.3%
Draw rate
25.6%
46.7%
Loss rate
37.2%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
60.5%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
44.2%
35.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.2%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
45
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.29
Goals for per game
1.39
69.7%
Scoring rate
78.8%
51.7%
BTTS rate
54.1%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.19
71.1%
Scoring rate
79.1%
51.1%
BTTS rate
53.5%
3.50
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
89
History Matches
85
1.29
Goals Mean
1.39
1.16
Goals Std
1.12
69.7%
Scored 1+ rate
78.8%
38.2%
Scored 2+ rate
37.6%
16.9%
Scored 3+ rate
16.5%
1.47
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.54
Goals against per game
1.34
79.8%
Conceding rate
69.4%
1.51
Goals against per game
1.49
77.8%
Conceding rate
69.8%
3.00
Goals against per game
0.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
89
History Matches
85
1.54
Conceded Mean
1.34
1.22
Conceded Std
1.40
43.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.1%
20.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.5%
1.51
Venue Conceded Mean
1.49
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
20.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.9%
20.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
89
History Matches
85
0.91
Result entropy
0.99
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.74
8.95
Stability score
0.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
88
Eligible Matches
85
22
Lead Matches
25
59.1%
Lead Win Rate
68.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.77
28
Trailing Matches
22
25.0%
Non-loss rate
31.8%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
88
Halftime Coverage Matches
85
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.88
Rest days
84.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
72
Normal Rest History Matches
67
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
11
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
10
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.25
Portability PPG Range
1.00
54.84
Portability Score
55.18
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
89
Clean History Matches
85
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-33.15
PPG-0.22
GF-0.10
GA0.20
PPG0.00
PPG-0.04
PPG0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate9.2%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate8.0%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate0.6%
Scored 3+ rate0.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.47
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.20
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate9.7%
Conceded 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.03
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score7.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.27
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.25
Portability Score-0.33
Rest days-3.27
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.90
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.80
Current Team ELO-33.15
Current Opponent ELO33.15
Current ELO Difference-66.30
Expected score-0.10
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-1.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bristol Rovers

L
Fleetwood Town3–1Bristol Rovers31 Oct · away
Pick: Fleetwood Town 38% · hit
D
Bristol Rovers0–0Swindon Town24 Oct · home
Pick: Bristol Rovers 43% · missed
L
Bristol Rovers1–2Salford City20 Oct · home
Pick: Bristol Rovers 49% · missed
L
Shrewsbury1–0Bristol Rovers17 Oct · away
Pick: Bristol Rovers 51% · missed
L
Wycombe4–1Bristol Rovers6 Oct · away
Pick: Wycombe 45% · hit

Chesterfield

W
Chesterfield4–3Yeovil Town7 Nov · home
Pick: Chesterfield 44% · hit
L
Newport County4–1Chesterfield30 Oct · away
Pick: Newport County 42% · hit
W
Chesterfield5–1Crewe24 Oct · home
Pick: Crewe 39% · missed
D
Chesterfield1–1Colchester20 Oct · home
Pick: Chesterfield 41% · missed
L
Port Vale1–0Chesterfield17 Oct · away
Pick: Port Vale 40% · hit

About this match

Bristol Rovers and Chesterfield meet in League Two on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Memorial Stadium, Bristol. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Bristol Rovers win 42.1%, draw 27.1%, Chesterfield win 30.8%. The pick is Bristol Rovers win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.6%. Both teams to score: 55.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.