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League Two England Round 15 2026

Rochdale vs York

Rochdale Home · Elo 1,605
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
York Away · Elo 1,656
Spotland Stadium, Rochdale Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: York win
Rochdale win
31.6%
Draw
22.9%
York winPick
45.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.1%
No40.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.0%
Under 2.541.0%

How much we know

Rochdale history94 matches
York history80 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.6%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why York are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • York are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,656 against 1,605. On rating alone York would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • York score more

    1.68 goals a game over 94 matches for Rochdale, against 2.23 over 80 for York.

  • Defences are close

    Rochdale concede 1.12 a game, York 1.09.

  • York games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Rochdale matches, against 69% for York. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rochdale
York@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1604.7
ELO
1656.0
94
ELO · Matches
80
1604.7
Current Team ELO
1656.0
1656.0
Current Opponent ELO
1604.7
-51.24
Current ELO Difference
51.24
0.43
Expected score
0.57
94
History Matches
80
0.06
Residual Mean
0.09
55.06
Overperformance
57.36
-0.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.30
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
2.40
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
2.20
Goals against per game
2.00
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.41
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
94
Matches
80
1.85
PPG
2.11
53.2%
Win rate
63.8%
25.5%
Draw rate
20.0%
21.3%
Loss rate
16.3%
79.8%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
55.3%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
30.9%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
Venue performance10 signals
100
51
Matches
40
1.96
PPG
2.20
58.8%
Win rate
67.5%
19.6%
Draw rate
17.5%
21.6%
Loss rate
15.0%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
39.2%
Over 3.5 rate
32.5%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
51
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.68
Goals for per game
2.23
84.0%
Scoring rate
95.0%
55.3%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.96
Goals for per game
1.90
88.2%
Scoring rate
97.5%
54.9%
BTTS rate
57.5%
0.50
Goals for per game
2.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
94
History Matches
80
1.68
Goals Mean
2.23
1.14
Goals Std
1.34
84.0%
Scored 1+ rate
95.0%
55.3%
Scored 2+ rate
65.0%
20.2%
Scored 3+ rate
37.5%
1.96
Venue Goals Mean
1.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.12
Goals against per game
1.09
66.0%
Conceding rate
63.8%
1.18
Goals against per game
0.95
62.7%
Conceding rate
57.5%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
94
History Matches
80
1.12
Conceded Mean
1.09
1.08
Conceded Std
1.09
30.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.3%
10.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
0.95
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.3%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
37.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.5%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
2.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.3%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
37.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.5%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
2.5%
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
94
History Matches
80
0.92
Result entropy
0.82
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.88
7.74
Stability score
17.70
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
94
Eligible Matches
79
37
Lead Matches
32
78.4%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.91
19
Trailing Matches
15
26.3%
Non-loss rate
46.7%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
94
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.30
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
11
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.64
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
72
Normal Rest History Matches
58
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.98
10
Long Rest History Matches
16
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
11
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.64
1.83
Portability PPG Range
1.55
43.43
Portability Score
43.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
94
Clean History Matches
80
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-51.24
PPG-0.26
GF-0.54
GA0.03
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.24
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate11.0%
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate9.3%
History Matches14
Goals Mean-0.54
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Goals Mean0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.10
History Matches14
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate0.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.81
History Matches14
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.24
Stability score-9.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.69
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.50
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.29
Portability Score-0.43
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.36
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO-51.24
Current Opponent ELO51.24
Current ELO Difference-102.5
Expected score-0.15
History Matches14
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rochdale

L
Rochdale1–4Doncaster3 Nov · home
Pick: Rochdale 43% · missed
L
Port Vale4–2Rochdale31 Oct · away
Pick: Port Vale 38% · hit
L
Rochdale0–5Accrington ST24 Oct · home
Pick: Rochdale 45% · missed
D
Rochdale2–2Grimsby20 Oct · home
Pick: Grimsby 38% · missed
L
Crewe3–2Rochdale17 Oct · away
Pick: Crewe 45% · hit

York

W
York4–0Northampton7 Nov · home
Pick: Northampton 43% · missed
L
Grimsby5–2York31 Oct · away
Pick: Grimsby 39% · hit
W
York2–0Port Vale24 Oct · home
Pick: York 54% · hit
D
York1–1Accrington ST20 Oct · home
Pick: York 54% · missed
D
Newport County1–1York17 Oct · away
Pick: Newport County 41% · missed

About this match

Rochdale and York meet in League Two on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Spotland Stadium, Rochdale. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Rochdale win 31.6%, draw 22.9%, York win 45.6%. The pick is York win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.0%. Both teams to score: 59.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.