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League Two England Round 15 2026

Rotherham vs Crawley Town

Rotherham Home · Elo 1,441
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Crawley Town Away · Elo 1,430
Aesseal New York Stadium, Rotherham Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rotherham win
Rotherham winPick
41.3%
Draw
28.0%
Crawley Town win
30.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.9%
Under 2.553.1%

How much we know

Rotherham history87 matches
Crawley Town history84 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.3%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Rotherham are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,441 against 1,430. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Crawley Town score more

    1.06 goals a game over 87 matches for Rotherham, against 1.25 over 84 for Crawley Town.

  • Defences are close

    Rotherham concede 1.55 a game, Crawley Town 1.56.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Rotherham matches, against 54% for Crawley Town. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rotherham
Crawley Town@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1440.8
ELO
1429.8
87
ELO · Matches
84
1440.8
Current Team ELO
1429.8
1429.8
Current Opponent ELO
1440.8
11.01
Current ELO Difference
-11.01
0.52
Expected score
0.48
87
History Matches
84
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.04
47.14
Overperformance
46.49
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
0.90
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
87
Matches
84
1.03
PPG
1.02
26.4%
Win rate
26.2%
24.1%
Draw rate
23.8%
49.4%
Loss rate
50.0%
70.1%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
50.6%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
25.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
44
1.19
PPG
0.98
28.6%
Win rate
27.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
15.9%
38.1%
Loss rate
56.8%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.5%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
61.4%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
43.2%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
42
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.06
Goals for per game
1.25
64.4%
Scoring rate
69.0%
49.4%
BTTS rate
52.4%
1.17
Goals for per game
1.27
71.4%
Scoring rate
65.9%
59.5%
BTTS rate
47.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
87
History Matches
84
1.06
Goals Mean
1.25
1.16
Goals Std
1.27
64.4%
Scored 1+ rate
69.0%
26.4%
Scored 2+ rate
29.8%
8.0%
Scored 3+ rate
15.5%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.56
79.3%
Conceding rate
76.2%
1.62
Goals against per game
1.75
83.3%
Conceding rate
72.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
87
History Matches
84
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.56
1.23
Conceded Std
1.26
44.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.4%
21.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
1.62
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
35.6%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
35.6%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.1%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
87
History Matches
84
0.95
Result entropy
0.95
1.74
Goal Difference Std
1.86
5.05
Stability score
5.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
86
Eligible Matches
84
25
Lead Matches
18
48.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.59
Lead Points Retention
0.85
35
Trailing Matches
26
22.9%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
11.4%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
86
Halftime Coverage Matches
84
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.20
73
Normal Rest History Matches
71
1.05
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.99
10
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
10
Competition Season Count
9
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.33
0.91
Portability PPG Range
0.93
57.66
Portability Score
60.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
87
Clean History Matches
84
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO11.01
PPG0.01
GF-0.19
GA-0.01
PPG-1.00
PPG0.21
PPG-0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate4.7%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.19
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.60
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.01
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.07
History Matches3
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score-0.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.26
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.30
Lead Points Retention-0.27
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate7.5%
Trailing Win Rate11.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.02
Portability Score-2.56
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.20
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.07
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO11.01
Current Opponent ELO-11.01
Current ELO Difference22.03
Expected score0.03
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rotherham

W
Bromley0–2Rotherham7 Nov · away
Pick: Bromley 39% · missed
L
Rotherham0–1Newcastle United U213 Nov · home
Pick: Rotherham 62% · missed
L
Swindon Town2–1Rotherham31 Oct · away
Pick: Swindon Town 49% · hit
D
Rotherham3–3Shrewsbury24 Oct · home
Pick: Rotherham 59% · missed
D
Rotherham2–2Newport County20 Oct · home
Pick: Rotherham 36% · missed

Crawley Town

W
Oldham0–1Crawley Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Oldham 50% · missed
D
Crawley Town1–1Tranmere24 Oct · home
Pick: Crawley Town 41% · missed
L
Crawley Town2–3Shrewsbury20 Oct · home
Pick: Crawley Town 55% · missed
L
Salford City2–1Crawley Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Salford City 44% · hit
W
Crawley Town4–0Bromley6 Oct · home
Pick: Bromley 38% · missed

About this match

Rotherham and Crawley Town meet in League Two on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Aesseal New York Stadium, Rotherham. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Rotherham win 41.3%, draw 28.0%, Crawley Town win 30.7%. The pick is Rotherham win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.9%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.