Crewe vs Newport County
Match result probability Model pick: Crewe win
Crewe winPick
47.9%
Draw
24.7%
Newport County win
27.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.2%
No50.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.1%
Under 2.544.9%
How much we know
Crewe history88 matches
Newport County history89 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Crewe
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.9%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Crewe are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Crewe are rated 79 Elo points higher
Elo 1,528 against 1,449. On rating alone Crewe would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.
-
Crewe score more
1.56 goals a game over 88 matches for Crewe, against 1.08 over 89 for Newport County.
-
Crewe concede fewer
Crewe concede 1.30 a game, Newport County 1.58.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
53% of Crewe matches, against 55% for Newport County. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Newport County@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1527.7
ELO
1448.7
88
ELO · Matches
89
1527.7
Current Team ELO
1448.7
1448.7
Current Opponent ELO
1527.7
79.05
Current ELO Difference
-79.05
0.61
Expected score
0.39
88
History Matches
89
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
51.30
Overperformance
47.46
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
0.80
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
0.90
Goals against per game
1.90
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.76
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.55
Overall performance9 signals 90
88
Matches
89
1.42
PPG
1.03
39.8%
Win rate
28.1%
22.7%
Draw rate
19.1%
37.5%
Loss rate
52.8%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.0%
53.4%
Over 2.5 rate
55.1%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
27.0%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals 100
44
Matches
47
1.50
PPG
1.02
43.2%
Win rate
27.7%
20.5%
Draw rate
19.1%
36.4%
Loss rate
53.2%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.5%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
61.7%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.7%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
44
History Matches
47
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.56
Goals for per game
1.08
71.6%
Scoring rate
62.9%
53.4%
BTTS rate
47.2%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.15
77.3%
Scoring rate
66.0%
54.5%
BTTS rate
48.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
88
History Matches
89
1.56
Goals Mean
1.08
1.60
Goals Std
1.08
71.6%
Scored 1+ rate
62.9%
38.6%
Scored 2+ rate
30.3%
22.7%
Scored 3+ rate
12.4%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.58
75.0%
Conceding rate
76.4%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.64
75.0%
Conceding rate
76.6%
0.00
Goals against per game
2.50
0.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
88
History Matches
89
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.23
Conceded Std
1.31
33.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.2%
14.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.5%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
28.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
28.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
88
History Matches
89
0.98
Result entropy
0.92
2.20
Goal Difference Std
1.79
2.49
Stability score
8.06
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
87
Eligible Matches
89
27
Lead Matches
19
81.5%
Lead Win Rate
63.2%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.68
24
Trailing Matches
27
20.8%
Non-loss rate
18.5%
4.2%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
87
Halftime Coverage Matches
89
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
80.84
Rest days
84.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.14
71
Normal Rest History Matches
71
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.11
10
Long Rest History Matches
10
2.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
1.50
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
9
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.22
1.66
Portability PPG Range
0.57
48.01
Portability Score
69.53
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
88
Clean History Matches
89
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO79.05
PPG0.39
GF0.48
GA-0.29
PPG1.50
PPG0.48
PPG0.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate1.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.48
Goals Std0.52
Scored 1+ rate8.7%
Scored 2+ rate8.3%
Scored 3+ rate10.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.45
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.71
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.41
Stability score-5.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.43
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate18.3%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate2.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.32
Portability PPG Range1.09
Portability Score-21.51
Rest days-3.30
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.36
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.21
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match1.00
Current Team ELO79.05
Current Opponent ELO-79.05
Current ELO Difference158.1
Expected score0.22
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Crewe
W
Crewe2–1AFC Wimbledon7 Nov · home
Pick: Crewe 38% · hit D
Crewe1–1Barnet31 Oct · home
Pick: Barnet 37% · missed L
Chesterfield5–1Crewe24 Oct · away
Pick: Crewe 39% · missed L
Exeter City2–0Crewe20 Oct · away
Pick: Crewe 39% · missed W
Crewe3–2Rochdale17 Oct · home
Pick: Crewe 45% · hit Newport County
W
Newport County3–1Walsall7 Nov · home
Pick: Walsall 44% · missed L
Newport County1–2Crystal Palace U213 Nov · home
Pick: Newport County 58% · missed W
Newport County4–1Chesterfield30 Oct · home
Pick: Newport County 42% · hit L
Cheltenham1–0Newport County24 Oct · away
Pick: Newport County 40% · missed D
Rotherham2–2Newport County20 Oct · away
Pick: Rotherham 36% · missed About this match
Crewe and Newport County meet in League Two on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Alexandra Stadium, Crewe. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Crewe win 47.9%, draw 24.7%, Newport County win 27.4%. The pick is Crewe win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.1%. Both teams to score: 49.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.