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League Two England Round 15 2026

Port Vale vs Accrington ST

Port Vale Home · Elo 1,508
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Accrington ST Away · Elo 1,453
Vale Park, Stoke on Trent Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Port Vale win
Port Vale winPick
43.9%
Draw
30.0%
Accrington ST win
26.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.9%
No50.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.5%
Under 2.556.5%

How much we know

Port Vale history93 matches
Accrington ST history87 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.9%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Port Vale are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Port Vale are rated 54 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,508 against 1,453. On rating alone Port Vale would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Port Vale score more

    1.27 goals a game over 93 matches for Port Vale, against 1.09 over 87 for Accrington ST.

  • Defences are close

    Port Vale concede 1.20 a game, Accrington ST 1.26.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Port Vale matches, against 40% for Accrington ST. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Port Vale
Accrington ST@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1507.6
ELO
1453.3
93
ELO · Matches
87
1507.6
Current Team ELO
1453.3
1453.3
Current Opponent ELO
1507.6
54.33
Current ELO Difference
-54.33
0.58
Expected score
0.42
93
History Matches
87
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.01
50.76
Overperformance
48.83
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
0.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.30
1.40
Goals for per game
1.10
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.58
Overall performance9 signals
90
93
Matches
87
1.40
PPG
1.18
38.7%
Win rate
29.9%
23.7%
Draw rate
28.7%
37.6%
Loss rate
41.4%
60.2%
Over 1.5 rate
69.0%
41.9%
Over 2.5 rate
40.2%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.8%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
49
Matches
38
1.45
PPG
0.95
38.8%
Win rate
23.7%
28.6%
Draw rate
23.7%
32.7%
Loss rate
52.6%
55.1%
Over 1.5 rate
71.1%
38.8%
Over 2.5 rate
42.1%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
13.2%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
49
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.27
Goals for per game
1.09
62.4%
Scoring rate
63.2%
35.5%
BTTS rate
44.8%
1.29
Goals for per game
0.87
59.2%
Scoring rate
55.3%
32.7%
BTTS rate
39.5%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
93
History Matches
87
1.27
Goals Mean
1.09
1.50
Goals Std
1.16
62.4%
Scored 1+ rate
63.2%
31.2%
Scored 2+ rate
26.4%
15.1%
Scored 3+ rate
13.8%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
0.87
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.20
Goals against per game
1.26
62.4%
Conceding rate
71.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.37
57.1%
Conceding rate
73.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
93
History Matches
87
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.26
1.35
Conceded Std
1.08
31.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.2%
16.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.3%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.37
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.7%
37.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
40.8%
Failed-to-score rate
44.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
37.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.7%
37.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
40.8%
Failed-to-score rate
44.7%
37.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
93
History Matches
87
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
2.17
Goal Difference Std
1.62
2.04
Stability score
1.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
92
Eligible Matches
87
27
Lead Matches
29
85.2%
Lead Win Rate
58.6%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.70
25
Trailing Matches
27
20.0%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
4.0%
Trailing Win Rate
3.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
92
Halftime Coverage Matches
87
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.88
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
69
Normal Rest History Matches
75
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
15
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
10
Competition Season Count
9
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.47
2.09
Portability PPG Range
1.20
46.02
Portability Score
51.49
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
93
Clean History Matches
87
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO54.33
PPG0.21
GF0.18
GA-0.06
PPG0.00
PPG0.50
PPG0.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate8.9%
Failed-to-score rate0.9%
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate16.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.18
Goals Std0.34
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate4.7%
Scored 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.36
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std0.27
Clean-sheet rate8.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate5.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.27
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.55
Stability score0.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.65
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate26.6%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate8.9%
Trailing Win Rate0.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.89
Portability Score-5.47
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match0.54
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.15
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.21
Current Team ELO54.33
Current Opponent ELO-54.33
Current ELO Difference108.7
Expected score0.16
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Port Vale

W
Port Vale4–2Scunthorpe7 Nov · home
Pick: Port Vale 41% · hit
W
Port Vale4–2Rochdale31 Oct · home
Pick: Port Vale 38% · hit
W
Port Vale5–0Manchester City U2127 Oct · home
Pick: Port Vale 59% · hit
L
York2–0Port Vale24 Oct · away
Pick: York 54% · hit
D
Gillingham1–1Port Vale20 Oct · away
Pick: Port Vale 40% · missed

Accrington ST

L
Accrington ST0–2Wycombe7 Nov · home
Pick: Wycombe 40% · hit
D
Accrington ST1–1Northampton31 Oct · home
Pick: Accrington ST 41% · missed
W
Rochdale0–5Accrington ST24 Oct · away
Pick: Rochdale 45% · missed
D
York1–1Accrington ST20 Oct · away
Pick: York 54% · missed
W
Accrington ST3–1Gillingham17 Oct · home
Pick: Accrington ST 51% · hit

About this match

Port Vale and Accrington ST meet in League Two on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Vale Park, Stoke on Trent. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Port Vale win 43.9%, draw 30.0%, Accrington ST win 26.1%. The pick is Port Vale win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.5%. Both teams to score: 49.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.