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League Two England Round 15 2026

Exeter City vs Cheltenham

Exeter City Home · Elo 1,471
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cheltenham Away · Elo 1,451
St James Park, Exeter Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Exeter City win
Exeter City winPick
50.5%
Draw
25.2%
Cheltenham win
24.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.7%
No48.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.4%
Under 2.548.6%

How much we know

Exeter City history85 matches
Cheltenham history86 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.5%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Exeter City are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,471 against 1,451. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.21 goals a game over 85 matches for Exeter City, against 1.24 over 86 for Cheltenham.

  • Exeter City concede fewer

    Exeter City concede 1.42 a game, Cheltenham 1.64.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of Exeter City matches, against 51% for Cheltenham. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Exeter City
Cheltenham@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1470.6
ELO
1450.6
85
ELO · Matches
86
1470.6
Current Team ELO
1450.6
1450.6
Current Opponent ELO
1470.6
20.00
Current ELO Difference
-20.00
0.53
Expected score
0.47
85
History Matches
86
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
48.11
Overperformance
47.93
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.20
1.10
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.41
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.09
Overall performance9 signals
90
85
Matches
86
1.21
PPG
1.21
31.8%
Win rate
33.7%
25.9%
Draw rate
19.8%
42.4%
Loss rate
46.5%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
81.4%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
51.2%
25.9%
Over 3.5 rate
30.2%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
42
1.46
PPG
1.05
38.5%
Win rate
28.6%
30.8%
Draw rate
19.0%
30.8%
Loss rate
52.4%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
88.1%
41.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
25.6%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
39
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.21
Goals for per game
1.24
65.9%
Scoring rate
66.3%
42.4%
BTTS rate
48.8%
1.41
Goals for per game
1.24
71.8%
Scoring rate
61.9%
41.0%
BTTS rate
47.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
85
History Matches
86
1.21
Goals Mean
1.24
1.25
Goals Std
1.23
65.9%
Scored 1+ rate
66.3%
31.8%
Scored 2+ rate
36.0%
15.3%
Scored 3+ rate
15.1%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.64
69.4%
Conceding rate
79.1%
1.26
Goals against per game
1.88
61.5%
Conceding rate
81.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
85
History Matches
86
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.64
1.59
Conceded Std
1.33
37.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.2%
16.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.9%
1.26
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
34.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.7%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
34.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.7%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
85
History Matches
86
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
2.13
Goal Difference Std
1.95
1.88
Stability score
5.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
85
Eligible Matches
86
21
Lead Matches
14
81.0%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.81
37
Trailing Matches
34
24.3%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
2.7%
Trailing Win Rate
14.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
85
Halftime Coverage Matches
86
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.94
Rest days
83.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.83
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
68
Normal Rest History Matches
63
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
10
Long Rest History Matches
13
0.90
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.54
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
10
Competition Season Count
10
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.56
1.50
Portability PPG Range
1.67
48.24
Portability Score
47.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
85
Clean History Matches
86
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO20.00
PPG0.00
GF-0.03
GA-0.22
PPG0.00
PPG0.41
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate9.7%
Failed-to-score rate0.4%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate19.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.07
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std0.26
Clean-sheet rate9.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.51
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score-3.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.84
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate2.4%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate0.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.17
Portability Score1.22
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.83
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.36
Current Team ELO20.00
Current Opponent ELO-20.00
Current ELO Difference40.00
Expected score0.06
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Exeter City

W
Huddersfield1–2Exeter City7 Nov · away
Pick: Huddersfield 41% · missed
L
Salford City2–1Exeter City31 Oct · away
Pick: Salford City 39% · hit
W
Exeter City2–1Fleetwood Town24 Oct · home
Pick: Fleetwood Town 37% · missed
W
Exeter City2–0Crewe20 Oct · home
Pick: Crewe 39% · missed
D
Colchester0–0Exeter City17 Oct · away
Pick: Colchester 39% · missed

Cheltenham

W
Cheltenham2–0FC Halifax Town7 Nov · home
Pick: FC Halifax Town 45% · missed
L
Tranmere3–1Cheltenham31 Oct · away
Pick: Tranmere 48% · hit
W
Cheltenham1–0Newport County24 Oct · home
Pick: Newport County 40% · missed
W
Cheltenham4–2Fleetwood Town20 Oct · home
Pick: Fleetwood Town 40% · missed
L
Oldham4–1Cheltenham17 Oct · away
Pick: Oldham 52% · hit

About this match

Exeter City and Cheltenham meet in League Two on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at St James Park, Exeter. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Exeter City win 50.5%, draw 25.2%, Cheltenham win 24.3%. The pick is Exeter City win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.4%. Both teams to score: 51.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.