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League Two England Round 15 2026

Colchester vs Gillingham

Colchester Home · Elo 1,499
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gillingham Away · Elo 1,452
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Colchester win
Colchester winPick
50.6%
Draw
26.4%
Gillingham win
22.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.8%
No50.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.5%
Under 2.548.5%

How much we know

Colchester history84 matches
Gillingham history85 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.6%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Colchester are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Colchester are rated 47 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,499 against 1,452. On rating alone Colchester would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Colchester score more

    1.39 goals a game over 84 matches for Colchester, against 1.04 over 85 for Gillingham.

  • Colchester concede fewer

    Colchester concede 1.08 a game, Gillingham 1.33.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Colchester matches, against 40% for Gillingham. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Colchester
Gillingham@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.1
ELO
1451.9
84
ELO · Matches
85
1499.1
Current Team ELO
1451.9
1451.9
Current Opponent ELO
1499.1
47.22
Current ELO Difference
-47.22
0.57
Expected score
0.43
84
History Matches
85
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.03
49.88
Overperformance
47.67
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
1.70
Goals for per game
1.00
1.30
Goals against per game
1.80
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.68
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.99
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.23
Overall performance9 signals
90
84
Matches
85
1.49
PPG
1.20
40.5%
Win rate
28.2%
27.4%
Draw rate
35.3%
32.1%
Loss rate
36.5%
69.0%
Over 1.5 rate
67.1%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
23.8%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
43
1.55
PPG
1.09
42.9%
Win rate
23.3%
26.2%
Draw rate
39.5%
31.0%
Loss rate
37.2%
73.8%
Over 1.5 rate
67.4%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
39.5%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
20.9%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
42
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.39
Goals for per game
1.04
70.2%
Scoring rate
71.8%
48.8%
BTTS rate
50.6%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.05
71.4%
Scoring rate
69.8%
52.4%
BTTS rate
51.2%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
84
History Matches
85
1.39
Goals Mean
1.04
1.34
Goals Std
0.93
70.2%
Scored 1+ rate
71.8%
40.5%
Scored 2+ rate
21.2%
15.5%
Scored 3+ rate
8.2%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.05
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.08
Goals against per game
1.33
70.2%
Conceding rate
70.6%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.33
71.4%
Conceding rate
72.1%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
84
History Matches
85
1.08
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.04
Conceded Std
1.29
22.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.5%
10.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.3%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
29.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
29.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
84
History Matches
85
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.59
1.19
Stability score
0.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
83
Eligible Matches
84
17
Lead Matches
16
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.58
23
Trailing Matches
26
39.1%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
8.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
83
Halftime Coverage Matches
84
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.57
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
68
Normal Rest History Matches
71
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.08
8
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
9
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.45
1.11
Portability PPG Range
1.25
57.71
Portability Score
52.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
84
Clean History Matches
85
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO47.22
PPG0.29
GF0.36
GA-0.25
PPG1.50
PPG0.45
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Failed-to-score rate1.5%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.36
Goals Std0.41
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate19.3%
Scored 3+ rate7.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.68
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.98
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.13
Stability score0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.02
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate32.4%
Lead Points Retention0.28
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate8.4%
Trailing Win Rate8.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.14
Portability Score5.01
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.34
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO47.22
Current Opponent ELO-47.22
Current ELO Difference94.44
Expected score0.14
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Colchester

W
Colchester1–0Worcester City7 Nov · home
Pick: Colchester 44% · hit
L
Colchester1–3Walsall31 Oct · home
Pick: Walsall 38% · hit
L
Northampton2–0Colchester24 Oct · away
Pick: Northampton 40% · hit
D
Chesterfield1–1Colchester20 Oct · away
Pick: Chesterfield 41% · missed
D
Colchester0–0Exeter City17 Oct · home
Pick: Colchester 39% · missed

Gillingham

L
Gillingham0–1Barrow7 Nov · home
Pick: Gillingham 37% · missed
W
Shrewsbury1–2Gillingham31 Oct · away
Pick: Gillingham 42% · hit
L
Gillingham1–4Grimsby24 Oct · home
Pick: Grimsby 54% · hit
D
Gillingham1–1Port Vale20 Oct · home
Pick: Port Vale 40% · missed
L
Accrington ST3–1Gillingham17 Oct · away
Pick: Accrington ST 51% · hit

About this match

Colchester and Gillingham meet in League Two on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Colchester win 50.6%, draw 26.4%, Gillingham win 22.9%. The pick is Colchester win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.5%. Both teams to score: 49.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.