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4. liga - Divizie C Czechia Group C - 15 2026

Chrudim II vs Svitavy

Chrudim II Home · Elo 1,453
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Svitavy Away · Elo 1,440
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chrudim II win
Chrudim II winPick
44.5%
Draw
17.8%
Svitavy win
37.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.2%
No37.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.1%
Under 2.525.9%

How much we know

Chrudim II history50 matches
Svitavy history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Chrudim II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,453 against 1,440. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.44 goals a game over 50 matches for Chrudim II, against 1.41 over 37 for Svitavy.

  • Chrudim II concede fewer

    Chrudim II concede 2.22 a game, Svitavy 2.54.

  • Svitavy games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of Chrudim II matches, against 78% for Svitavy. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chrudim II
Svitavy@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1452.5
ELO
1439.8
50
ELO · Matches
37
1452.5
Current Team ELO
1439.8
1439.8
Current Opponent ELO
1452.5
12.71
Current ELO Difference
-12.71
0.52
Expected score
0.48
50
History Matches
37
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.08
46.40
Overperformance
45.02
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
4.60
Goals against per game
3.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.90
2.90
Goals against per game
2.70
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.41
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.37
2.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.70
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
3.39
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.09
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
37
1.16
PPG
1.00
32.0%
Win rate
27.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
18.9%
48.0%
Loss rate
54.1%
92.0%
Over 1.5 rate
91.9%
66.0%
Over 2.5 rate
78.4%
42.0%
Over 3.5 rate
51.4%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
18
1.33
PPG
1.00
37.5%
Win rate
27.8%
20.8%
Draw rate
16.7%
41.7%
Loss rate
55.6%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
94.4%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
88.9%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.57
24
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.41
72.0%
Scoring rate
64.9%
58.0%
BTTS rate
59.5%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.50
83.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
58.3%
BTTS rate
55.6%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.33
33.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
50
History Matches
37
1.44
Goals Mean
1.41
1.25
Goals Std
1.38
72.0%
Scored 1+ rate
64.9%
48.0%
Scored 2+ rate
37.8%
14.0%
Scored 3+ rate
27.0%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.22
Goals against per game
2.54
84.0%
Conceding rate
91.9%
1.83
Goals against per game
2.44
75.0%
Conceding rate
88.9%
6.00
Goals against per game
3.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
50
History Matches
37
2.22
Conceded Mean
2.54
1.75
Conceded Std
1.72
56.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
64.9%
38.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
48.6%
1.83
Venue Conceded Mean
2.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.1%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.1%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
37
0.95
Result entropy
0.91
2.28
Goal Difference Std
2.51
5.44
Stability score
8.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
37
13
Lead Matches
11
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.85
22
Trailing Matches
18
13.6%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
1.08
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.27
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
1.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.27
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.00
Rest days
83.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
23
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
26
Long Rest History Matches
15
0.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.07
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-5.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
4
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.02
1.33
Portability PPG Range
0.03
48.40
Portability Score
96.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO12.71
PPG0.16
GF0.03
GA-0.32
PPG-1.00
PPG0.33
PPG0.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate7.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate13.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches13
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate7.1%
Scored 2+ rate10.2%
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.04
History Matches13
Conceded Mean-0.32
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate7.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.61
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.88
History Matches13
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-3.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.30
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.33
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.52
Portability PPG Range1.30
Portability Score-48.37
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.43
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Current Team ELO12.71
Current Opponent ELO-12.71
Current ELO Difference25.42
Expected score0.04
History Matches13
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chrudim II

D
Chrudim II1–1Hlinsko31 Oct · home
Pick: Hlinsko 57% · missed
L
Slavia Hradec Králové4–0Chrudim II24 Oct · away
Pick: Slavia Hradec Králové 55% · hit
D
Chrudim II1–1Letohrad17 Oct · home
Pick: Chrudim II 54% · missed
L
Turnov4–1Chrudim II4 Oct · away
Pick: Turnov 69% · hit
L
Chrudim II1–2Přepeře29 Aug · home
Pick: Přepeře 70% · hit

Svitavy

L
Spartak Police n/Metují5–0Svitavy1 Nov · away
Pick: Spartak Police n/Metují 58% · hit
L
Svitavy1–4Kosmonosy25 Oct · home
Pick: Kosmonosy 59% · hit
L
Chlumec nad Cidlinou4–1Svitavy18 Oct · away
Pick: Chlumec nad Cidlinou 63% · hit
L
Dvůr Králové1–0Svitavy30 Aug · away
Pick: Dvůr Králové 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Chrudim II and Svitavy meet in 4. liga - Divizie C on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Chrudim II win 44.5%, draw 17.8%, Svitavy win 37.6%. The pick is Chrudim II win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.1%. Both teams to score: 62.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.