Kosmonosy vs Trutnov
Match result probability Model pick: Kosmonosy win
Kosmonosy winPick
53.7%
Draw
19.1%
Trutnov win
27.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes66.7%
No33.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.570.7%
Under 2.529.3%
How much we know
Kosmonosy history56 matches
Trutnov history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Kosmonosy
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.7%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Kosmonosy are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Kosmonosy are rated 39 Elo points higher
Elo 1,519 against 1,479. On rating alone Kosmonosy would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
2.02 goals a game over 56 matches for Kosmonosy, against 2.05 over 58 for Trutnov.
-
Defences are close
Kosmonosy concede 1.64 a game, Trutnov 1.78.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
77% of Kosmonosy matches, against 72% for Trutnov. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Trutnov@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1518.7
ELO
1479.5
56
ELO · Matches
58
1518.7
Current Team ELO
1479.5
1479.5
Current Opponent ELO
1518.7
39.26
Current ELO Difference
-39.26
0.56
Expected score
0.44
56
History Matches
58
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.02
51.86
Overperformance
48.88
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
2.00
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.70
2.20
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.74
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.49
Overall performance9 signals 90
56
Matches
58
1.57
PPG
1.48
46.4%
Win rate
44.8%
17.9%
Draw rate
13.8%
35.7%
Loss rate
41.4%
94.6%
Over 1.5 rate
84.5%
76.8%
Over 2.5 rate
72.4%
41.1%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.43
Venue performance10 signals 100
31
Matches
28
1.84
PPG
1.43
54.8%
Win rate
42.9%
19.4%
Draw rate
14.3%
25.8%
Loss rate
42.9%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
80.6%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
45.2%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
31
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.02
Goals for per game
2.05
92.9%
Scoring rate
84.5%
75.0%
BTTS rate
63.8%
2.26
Goals for per game
1.71
96.8%
Scoring rate
78.6%
74.2%
BTTS rate
67.9%
2.67
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
56
History Matches
58
2.02
Goals Mean
2.05
1.29
Goals Std
1.74
92.9%
Scored 1+ rate
84.5%
60.7%
Scored 2+ rate
55.2%
26.8%
Scored 3+ rate
31.0%
2.26
Venue Goals Mean
1.71
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.64
Goals against per game
1.78
80.4%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.42
Goals against per game
2.07
77.4%
Conceding rate
82.1%
1.33
Goals against per game
2.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
56
History Matches
58
1.64
Conceded Mean
1.78
1.27
Conceded Std
1.50
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.2%
21.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.9%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
2.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
19.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
15.5%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
3.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
19.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
15.5%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
3.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
19.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
56
History Matches
58
0.94
Result entropy
0.91
1.97
Goal Difference Std
2.43
6.10
Stability score
9.15
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
54
Eligible Matches
54
15
Lead Matches
19
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
84.2%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.88
22
Trailing Matches
16
40.9%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
27.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.94
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.20
Rest days
83.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.90
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
25
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.61
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
1.00
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.74
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.62
Portability PPG Std
0.33
1.73
Portability PPG Range
1.00
44.51
Portability Score
59.99
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
56
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO39.26
PPG0.09
GF-0.03
GA-0.13
PPG1.33
PPG0.41
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate4.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std-0.45
Scored 1+ rate8.4%
Scored 2+ rate5.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.02
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.65
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.46
Stability score-3.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.21
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate40.9%
Trailing Win Rate27.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.29
Portability PPG Range0.73
Portability Score-15.48
Rest days-0.72
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.61
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Current Team ELO39.26
Current Opponent ELO-39.26
Current ELO Difference78.51
Expected score0.11
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Kosmonosy
D
Ústí nad Orlicí2–2Kosmonosy7 Nov · away
Pick: Ústí nad Orlicí 53% · missed W
Kosmonosy4–1Vykan31 Oct · home
Pick: Kosmonosy 48% · hit W
Svitavy1–4Kosmonosy25 Oct · away
Pick: Kosmonosy 59% · hit L
Kosmonosy1–2Dvůr Králové17 Oct · home
Pick: Kosmonosy 75% · missed W
Kolín0–4Kosmonosy30 Aug · away
Pick: Kosmonosy 43% · hit Trutnov
W
Trutnov1–0Chlumec nad Cidlinou7 Nov · home
Pick: Trutnov 55% · hit L
Vysoké Mýto3–0Trutnov31 Oct · away
Pick: Vysoké Mýto 66% · hit W
Trutnov3–0Přepeře24 Oct · home
Pick: Přepeře 42% · missed W
Trutnov1–0Kolín17 Oct · home
Pick: Trutnov 43% · hit W
Letohrad1–2Trutnov29 Aug · away
Pick: Trutnov 62% · hit About this match
Kosmonosy and Trutnov meet in 4. liga - Divizie C on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Kosmonosy win 53.7%, draw 19.1%, Trutnov win 27.2%. The pick is Kosmonosy win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.7%. Both teams to score: 66.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.