Spartak Police n/Metují vs Ústí nad Orlicí
Match result probability Model pick: Ústí nad Orlicí win
Spartak Police n/Metují win
26.1%
Draw
23.0%
Ústí nad Orlicí winPick
50.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes58.7%
No41.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.564.0%
Under 2.536.0%
How much we know
Spartak Police n/Metují history51 matches
Ústí nad Orlicí history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Ústí nad Orlicí
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.9%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Ústí nad Orlicí are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,494 against 1,469. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Spartak Police n/Metují score more
1.49 goals a game over 51 matches for Spartak Police n/Metují, against 1.28 over 58 for Ústí nad Orlicí.
-
Ústí nad Orlicí concede fewer
Spartak Police n/Metují concede 1.80 a game, Ústí nad Orlicí 1.62.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
59% of Spartak Police n/Metují matches, against 55% for Ústí nad Orlicí. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ústí nad Orlicí@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1494.3
ELO
1469.4
51
ELO · Matches
58
1494.3
Current Team ELO
1469.4
1469.4
Current Opponent ELO
1494.3
24.93
Current ELO Difference
-24.93
0.54
Expected score
0.46
51
History Matches
58
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.02
49.75
Overperformance
48.19
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
3.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.60
1.90
Goals for per game
2.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.79
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.28
Overall performance9 signals 90
51
Matches
58
1.35
PPG
1.10
37.3%
Win rate
25.9%
23.5%
Draw rate
32.8%
39.2%
Loss rate
41.4%
80.4%
Over 1.5 rate
84.5%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
55.2%
47.1%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
2.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals 100
26
Matches
29
1.58
PPG
0.72
46.2%
Win rate
10.3%
19.2%
Draw rate
41.4%
34.6%
Loss rate
48.3%
80.8%
Over 1.5 rate
89.7%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
58.6%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
26
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.49
Goals for per game
1.28
66.7%
Scoring rate
72.4%
51.0%
BTTS rate
60.3%
1.81
Goals for per game
1.21
69.2%
Scoring rate
65.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
62.1%
0.67
Goals for per game
4.00
33.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
51
History Matches
58
1.49
Goals Mean
1.28
1.43
Goals Std
1.17
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
72.4%
45.1%
Scored 2+ rate
36.2%
21.6%
Scored 3+ rate
12.1%
1.81
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.80
Goals against per game
1.62
76.5%
Conceding rate
81.0%
1.46
Goals against per game
1.90
69.2%
Conceding rate
86.2%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
51
History Matches
58
1.80
Conceded Mean
1.62
1.69
Conceded Std
1.22
47.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.6%
27.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.6%
1.46
Venue Conceded Mean
1.90
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
51
History Matches
58
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
2.43
Goal Difference Std
1.71
2.11
Stability score
1.65
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
51
Eligible Matches
57
18
Lead Matches
14
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.76
18
Trailing Matches
21
11.1%
Non-loss rate
23.8%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.92
Rest days
83.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
7
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.57
27
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.71
20
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.08
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
2.33
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.45
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.33
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.72
0.60
Portability PPG Range
2.00
67.11
Portability Score
40.85
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
51
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO24.93
PPG0.25
GF0.21
GA0.18
PPG-1.33
PPG0.85
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Failed-to-score rate5.7%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate17.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-7
Goals Mean0.21
Goals Std0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate8.9%
Scored 3+ rate9.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.41
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean0.18
Conceded Std0.48
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Conceded 2+ rate0.5%
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.09
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.72
Stability score0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.52
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate6.3%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate5.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.48
Portability PPG Range-1.40
Portability Score26.26
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.59
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.32
Current Team ELO24.93
Current Opponent ELO-24.93
Current ELO Difference49.86
Expected score0.07
History Matches-7
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Spartak Police n/Metují
L
Vykan2–0Spartak Police n/Metují7 Nov · away
Pick: Vykan 49% · hit W
Spartak Police n/Metují5–0Svitavy1 Nov · home
Pick: Spartak Police n/Metují 58% · hit W
Dvůr Králové0–6Spartak Police n/Metují25 Oct · away
Pick: Dvůr Králové 43% · missed W
Spartak Police n/Metují3–2Hlinsko18 Oct · home
Pick: Hlinsko 42% · missed W
Spartak Police n/Metují4–0Letohrad4 Oct · home
Pick: Spartak Police n/Metují 80% · hit Ústí nad Orlicí
D
Ústí nad Orlicí2–2Kosmonosy7 Nov · home
Pick: Ústí nad Orlicí 53% · missed D
Chlumec nad Cidlinou0–0Ústí nad Orlicí1 Nov · away
Pick: Ústí nad Orlicí 48% · missed D
Ústí nad Orlicí0–0Vysoké Mýto24 Oct · home
Pick: Ústí nad Orlicí 55% · missed L
Přepeře1–0Ústí nad Orlicí17 Oct · away
Pick: Ústí nad Orlicí 45% · missed W
Ústí nad Orlicí2–1Kolín4 Oct · home
Pick: Ústí nad Orlicí 59% · hit About this match
Spartak Police n/Metují and Ústí nad Orlicí meet in 4. liga - Divizie C on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Spartak Police n/Metují win 26.1%, draw 23.0%, Ústí nad Orlicí win 50.9%. The pick is Ústí nad Orlicí win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.0%. Both teams to score: 58.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.