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Oberliga - Bayern Süd Germany Bayern Süd - 19 2026

Erlbach vs Landshut

Erlbach Home · Elo 1,551
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Landshut Away · Elo 1,533
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Erlbach win
Erlbach winPick
47.9%
Draw
27.9%
Landshut win
24.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.8%
No51.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.2%
Under 2.556.8%

How much we know

Erlbach history52 matches
Landshut history7 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.9%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Erlbach are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,551 against 1,533. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Landshut score more

    1.27 goals a game over 52 matches for Erlbach, against 1.86 over 7 for Landshut.

  • Erlbach concede fewer

    Erlbach concede 0.98 a game, Landshut 1.14.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Erlbach matches, against 43% for Landshut. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Erlbach
Landshut@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1551.2
ELO
1532.7
52
ELO · Matches
7
1551.2
Current Team ELO
1532.7
1532.7
Current Opponent ELO
1551.2
18.45
Current ELO Difference
-18.45
0.53
Expected score
0.47
52
History Matches
7
0.04
Residual Mean
0.22
53.13
Overperformance
55.75
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
7
2.10
PPG
2.00
1.30
Goals for per game
1.86
0.40
Goals against per game
1.14
60.0%
Win rate
57.1%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.86
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.73
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.14
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.99
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.87
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.67
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
7
1.67
PPG
2.00
48.1%
Win rate
57.1%
23.1%
Draw rate
28.6%
28.8%
Loss rate
14.3%
63.5%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
42.3%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
21.2%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
4
2.12
PPG
1.75
64.0%
Win rate
50.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
16.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
64.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
12.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
25
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.27
Goals for per game
1.86
71.2%
Scoring rate
100.0%
34.6%
BTTS rate
71.4%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.25
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
36.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.86
71.4%
Scoring rate
100.0%
28.6%
BTTS rate
71.4%
52
History Matches
7
1.27
Goals Mean
1.86
1.09
Goals Std
1.73
71.2%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
38.5%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
13.5%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.98
Goals against per game
1.14
50.0%
Conceding rate
71.4%
0.64
Goals against per game
1.25
44.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.57
Goals against per game
1.14
42.9%
Conceding rate
71.4%
52
History Matches
7
0.98
Conceded Mean
1.14
1.20
Conceded Std
0.99
28.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
15.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
0.64
Venue Conceded Mean
1.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
56.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
56.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
7
0.95
Result entropy
0.87
1.69
Goal Difference Std
1.67
4.51
Stability score
13.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
7
19
Lead Matches
2
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
1.00
10
Trailing Matches
0
20.0%
Non-loss rate
—
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
7
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.29
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.14
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.10
Rest days
84.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
5
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
26
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
1.71
PPG
2.00
42.9%
Win rate
57.1%
42.9%
Draw rate
28.6%
14.3%
Loss rate
14.3%
42.9%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
7
Current Competition Matches
7
1.71
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.57
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.71
5
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.03
Portability PPG Std
—
0.07
Portability PPG Range
—
94.41
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
7
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO18.45
PPG-0.33
GF-0.59
GA-0.16
PPG-0.29
PPG0.37
PPG0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches45
Clean-sheet rate21.4%
Failed-to-score rate28.8%
History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate31.0%
Failed-to-score rate20.0%
History Matches45
Goals Mean-0.59
Goals Std-0.63
Scored 1+ rate-0.29
Scored 2+ rate9.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.83
History Matches45
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate21.4%
Conceded 2+ rate0.3%
Conceded 3+ rate1.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.61
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.74
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches45
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score-8.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.53
Eligible Matches45
Lead Matches17
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches10
Halftime Coverage Matches45
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.14
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches20
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Long Rest History Matches25
Long Rest Points Per Match0.73
Current Team ELO18.45
Current Opponent ELO-18.45
Current ELO Difference36.91
Expected score0.05
History Matches45
Residual Mean-0.18
Overperformance-2.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Erlbach

D
Hankofen-Hailing1–1Erlbach7 Nov · away
Pick: Hankofen-Hailing 45% · missed
W
Pfaffenhofen1–5Erlbach31 Oct · away
Pick: Erlbach 34% · hit
W
Erlbach2–1Schalding-Heining23 Oct · home
Pick: Erlbach 71% · hit
W
Schwabmünchen2–3Erlbach17 Oct · away
Pick: Erlbach 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Landshut

W
Landshut4–0Kirchanschöring7 Nov · home
Pick: Landshut 50% · hit
W
Landshut2–1Gundelfingen31 Oct · home
Pick: Landshut 50% · hit
W
1880 Wasserburg1–2Landshut23 Oct · away
Pick: Landshut 46% · hit
L
Landshut1–2Deisenhofen17 Oct · home
Pick: Landshut 50% · missed
L
Hankofen-Hailing2–1Landshut4 Oct · away
Pick: Hankofen-Hailing 51% · hit

About this match

Erlbach and Landshut meet in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Erlbach win 47.9%, draw 27.9%, Landshut win 24.3%. The pick is Erlbach win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.2%. Both teams to score: 48.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.