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Regionalliga - SudWest Germany Sudwest - 16 2026

Freiburg II vs FC Astoria Walldorf

Freiburg II Home · Elo 1,543
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Astoria Walldorf Away · Elo 1,518
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Freiburg II win
Freiburg II winPick
50.2%
Draw
21.6%
FC Astoria Walldorf win
28.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.9%
No33.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.575.1%
Under 2.524.9%

How much we know

Freiburg II history61 matches
FC Astoria Walldorf history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.2%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Freiburg II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Freiburg II are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,543 against 1,518. On rating alone Freiburg II would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.87 goals a game over 61 matches for Freiburg II, against 1.89 over 63 for FC Astoria Walldorf.

  • Defences are close

    Freiburg II concede 1.87 a game, FC Astoria Walldorf 1.71.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    79% of Freiburg II matches, against 71% for FC Astoria Walldorf. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Freiburg II
FC Astoria Walldorf@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1543.4
ELO
1517.7
61
ELO · Matches
63
1543.4
Current Team ELO
1517.7
1517.7
Current Opponent ELO
1543.4
25.76
Current ELO Difference
-25.76
0.54
Expected score
0.46
61
History Matches
63
0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
53.34
Overperformance
51.12
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.80
2.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.10
2.00
Goals for per game
1.70
1.40
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.48
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.99
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
63
1.38
PPG
1.46
39.3%
Win rate
39.7%
19.7%
Draw rate
27.0%
41.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
93.4%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
78.7%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
54.1%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
31
1.48
PPG
1.26
42.4%
Win rate
32.3%
21.2%
Draw rate
29.0%
36.4%
Loss rate
38.7%
93.9%
Over 1.5 rate
87.1%
84.8%
Over 2.5 rate
67.7%
63.6%
Over 3.5 rate
45.2%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
33
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.87
Goals for per game
1.89
80.3%
Scoring rate
81.0%
65.6%
BTTS rate
69.8%
2.21
Goals for per game
1.48
87.9%
Scoring rate
74.2%
72.7%
BTTS rate
71.0%
2.67
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
61
History Matches
63
1.87
Goals Mean
1.89
1.45
Goals Std
1.50
80.3%
Scored 1+ rate
81.0%
54.1%
Scored 2+ rate
52.4%
32.8%
Scored 3+ rate
31.7%
2.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.87
Goals against per game
1.71
83.6%
Conceding rate
81.0%
1.91
Goals against per game
1.87
81.8%
Conceding rate
87.1%
1.33
Goals against per game
2.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
63
1.87
Conceded Mean
1.71
1.22
Conceded Std
1.41
60.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.6%
32.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.4%
1.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.87
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
12.9%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
12.9%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
63
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
2.15
Goal Difference Std
2.24
4.20
Stability score
1.11
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
61
18
Lead Matches
20
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.75
24
Trailing Matches
20
33.3%
Non-loss rate
45.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
15.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.87
1.04
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
43
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
16
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.67
PPG
0.33
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
66.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.67
Current Competition PPG
0.33
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.63
Portability PPG Std
0.58
1.92
Portability PPG Range
1.67
44.12
Portability Score
46.40
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO25.76
PPG-0.08
GF-0.02
GA0.15
PPG1.33
PPG0.23
PPG1.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate0.6%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate1.7%
Scored 3+ rate1.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.73
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.07
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate7.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score3.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.43
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.25
Portability Score-2.28
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.36
Current Team ELO25.76
Current Opponent ELO-25.76
Current ELO Difference51.53
Expected score0.07
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Freiburg II

L
Kickers Offenbach2–1Freiburg II7 Nov · away
Pick: Kickers Offenbach 51% · hit
D
Freiburg II1–1SSV Ulm 184631 Oct · home
Pick: Freiburg II 56% · missed
W
Freiburg II2–1Eintracht Frankfurt II27 Oct · home
Pick: Freiburg II 52% · hit
D
Kaiserslautern II2–2Freiburg II23 Oct · away
Pick: Kaiserslautern II 42% · missed
L
FC 08 Homburg2–1Freiburg II18 Oct · away
Pick: FC 08 Homburg 45% · hit

FC Astoria Walldorf

L
FC Astoria Walldorf0–4FC 08 Homburg7 Nov · home
Pick: FC 08 Homburg 49% · hit
D
SGV Freiberg0–0FC Astoria Walldorf31 Oct · away
Pick: SGV Freiberg 60% · missed
W
FC Astoria Walldorf4–1Hessen Kassel24 Oct · home
Pick: Hessen Kassel 45% · missed
L
VfR Aalen2–0FC Astoria Walldorf17 Oct · away
Pick: VfR Aalen 60% · hit
D
FC Astoria Walldorf0–0SSV Ulm 184629 Aug · home
Pick: FC Astoria Walldorf 44% · missed

About this match

Freiburg II and FC Astoria Walldorf meet in Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Freiburg II win 50.2%, draw 21.6%, FC Astoria Walldorf win 28.2%. The pick is Freiburg II win. Over 2.5 goals: 75.1%. Both teams to score: 66.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.