ScoreProb
Log in
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany Sudwest - 16 2026

SGV Freiberg vs Eintracht Trier

SGV Freiberg Home · Elo 1,596
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Eintracht Trier Away · Elo 1,569
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: SGV Freiberg win
SGV Freiberg winPick
50.8%
Draw
22.0%
Eintracht Trier win
27.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.3%
No44.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.0%
Under 2.538.0%

How much we know

SGV Freiberg history63 matches
Eintracht Trier history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.8%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why SGV Freiberg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • SGV Freiberg are rated 27 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,596 against 1,569. On rating alone SGV Freiberg would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • SGV Freiberg score more

    2.08 goals a game over 63 matches for SGV Freiberg, against 1.62 over 68 for Eintracht Trier.

  • SGV Freiberg concede fewer

    SGV Freiberg concede 1.22 a game, Eintracht Trier 1.51.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of SGV Freiberg matches, against 63% for Eintracht Trier. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SGV Freiberg
Eintracht Trier@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1596.4
ELO
1569.2
63
ELO · Matches
68
1596.4
Current Team ELO
1569.2
1569.2
Current Opponent ELO
1596.4
27.23
Current ELO Difference
-27.23
0.54
Expected score
0.46
63
History Matches
68
0.07
Residual Mean
0.05
55.57
Overperformance
54.23
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.80
2.10
Goals for per game
1.50
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.58
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.95
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.96
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
2.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.98
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
68
1.87
PPG
1.50
55.6%
Win rate
42.6%
20.6%
Draw rate
22.1%
23.8%
Loss rate
35.3%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
83.8%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
63.2%
39.7%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
33
2.06
PPG
1.36
64.5%
Win rate
36.4%
12.9%
Draw rate
27.3%
22.6%
Loss rate
36.4%
77.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.8%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
60.6%
25.8%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
31
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.08
Goals for per game
1.62
85.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
52.9%
1.84
Goals for per game
1.55
90.3%
Scoring rate
72.7%
45.2%
BTTS rate
51.5%
2.67
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
63
History Matches
68
2.08
Goals Mean
1.62
1.61
Goals Std
1.30
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
55.6%
Scored 2+ rate
54.4%
34.9%
Scored 3+ rate
23.5%
1.84
Venue Goals Mean
1.55
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.22
Goals against per game
1.51
66.7%
Conceding rate
72.1%
0.94
Goals against per game
1.39
51.6%
Conceding rate
72.7%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
63
History Matches
68
1.22
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.34
Conceded Std
1.41
30.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.2%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.5%
0.94
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
48.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
9.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
48.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
9.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
68
0.90
Result entropy
0.97
2.08
Goal Difference Std
2.16
9.53
Stability score
3.11
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
63
25
Lead Matches
23
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
82.6%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.87
11
Trailing Matches
17
45.5%
Non-loss rate
11.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
1.03
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
83.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
44
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
15
Long Rest History Matches
15
2.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.47
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
2.33
PPG
1.50
66.7%
Win rate
50.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
3
Current Competition Matches
2
2.33
Current Competition PPG
1.50
2.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.62
Portability PPG Std
0.74
1.88
Portability PPG Range
1.77
44.84
Portability Score
40.41
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO27.23
PPG0.37
GF0.46
GA-0.29
PPG0.83
PPG0.70
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate21.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.46
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate10.7%
Scored 2+ rate1.1%
Scored 3+ rate11.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.22
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.01
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score6.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate17.4%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate33.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.45
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.83
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.12
Portability PPG Range0.10
Portability Score4.42
Rest days0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.46
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.87
Current Team ELO27.23
Current Opponent ELO-27.23
Current ELO Difference54.45
Expected score0.08
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

SGV Freiberg

W
FSV Frankfurt1–4SGV Freiberg7 Nov · away
Pick: SGV Freiberg 44% · hit
D
SGV Freiberg0–0FC Astoria Walldorf31 Oct · home
Pick: SGV Freiberg 60% · missed
D
Kickers Offenbach1–1SGV Freiberg23 Oct · away
Pick: SGV Freiberg 41% · missed
W
SGV Freiberg3–0Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.17 Oct · home
Pick: SGV Freiberg 61% · hit
W
SGV Freiberg2–1Eintracht Frankfurt II29 Aug · home
Pick: SGV Freiberg 56% · hit

Eintracht Trier

W
Eintracht Trier2–1FSV Mainz 05 II7 Nov · home
Pick: Eintracht Trier 50% · hit
D
FC 08 Homburg0–0Eintracht Trier30 Oct · away
Pick: FC 08 Homburg 53% · missed
W
Eintracht Trier2–0Stuttgarter Kickers24 Oct · home
Pick: Eintracht Trier 42% · hit
W
Eintracht Trier3–2FSV Frankfurt18 Oct · home
Pick: FSV Frankfurt 42% · missed
W
Hessen Kassel0–1Eintracht Trier1 Sep · away
Pick: Hessen Kassel 41% · missed

About this match

SGV Freiberg and Eintracht Trier meet in Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: SGV Freiberg win 50.8%, draw 22.0%, Eintracht Trier win 27.2%. The pick is SGV Freiberg win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.0%. Both teams to score: 55.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.