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Regionalliga - SudWest Germany Sudwest - 16 2026

Kaiserslautern II vs VfR Aalen

Kaiserslautern II Home · Elo 1,652
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
VfR Aalen Away · Elo 1,659
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: VfR Aalen win
Kaiserslautern II win
37.0%
Draw
23.9%
VfR Aalen winPick
39.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.0%
No38.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.9%
Under 2.533.1%

How much we know

Kaiserslautern II history54 matches
VfR Aalen history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.2%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why VfR Aalen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,652 against 1,659. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Kaiserslautern II score more

    2.65 goals a game over 54 matches for Kaiserslautern II, against 2.22 over 60 for VfR Aalen.

  • VfR Aalen concede fewer

    Kaiserslautern II concede 1.26 a game, VfR Aalen 0.92.

  • Kaiserslautern II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    80% of Kaiserslautern II matches, against 62% for VfR Aalen. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kaiserslautern II
VfR Aalen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1652.3
ELO
1659.3
54
ELO · Matches
60
1652.3
Current Team ELO
1659.3
1659.3
Current Opponent ELO
1652.3
-7.01
Current ELO Difference
7.01
0.49
Expected score
0.51
54
History Matches
60
0.14
Residual Mean
0.14
60.21
Overperformance
60.19
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.60
1.90
Goals for per game
1.80
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
60
2.20
PPG
2.15
66.7%
Win rate
65.0%
20.4%
Draw rate
20.0%
13.0%
Loss rate
15.0%
87.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
79.6%
Over 2.5 rate
61.7%
57.4%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
28
2.04
PPG
2.04
60.7%
Win rate
60.7%
21.4%
Draw rate
21.4%
17.9%
Loss rate
17.9%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
92.9%
78.6%
Over 2.5 rate
60.7%
60.7%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
2.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
28
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.65
Goals for per game
2.22
88.9%
Scoring rate
86.7%
63.0%
BTTS rate
51.7%
2.68
Goals for per game
2.04
85.7%
Scoring rate
85.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
53.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.67
33.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
54
History Matches
60
2.65
Goals Mean
2.22
1.70
Goals Std
1.51
88.9%
Scored 1+ rate
86.7%
72.2%
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
53.7%
Scored 3+ rate
38.3%
2.68
Venue Goals Mean
2.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.26
Goals against per game
0.92
68.5%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.11
Goals against per game
1.04
57.1%
Conceding rate
64.3%
2.67
Goals against per game
1.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
60
1.26
Conceded Mean
0.92
1.26
Conceded Std
0.94
31.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.3%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.3%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
31.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
31.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
60
0.78
Result entropy
0.81
2.29
Goal Difference Std
1.93
21.79
Stability score
19.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
59
27
Lead Matches
31
92.6%
Lead Win Rate
87.1%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.91
14
Trailing Matches
8
57.1%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
28.6%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
1.04
First Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
1.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.29
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
41
2.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.07
21
Long Rest History Matches
16
2.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.67
PPG
0.67
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
66.7%
Draw rate
66.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.67
Current Competition PPG
0.67
-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.71
Portability PPG Std
0.66
1.74
Portability PPG Range
1.77
41.49
Portability Score
43.23
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-7.01
PPG0.05
GF0.43
GA0.34
PPG0.00
PPG0.00
PPG0.80
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.43
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate2.2%
Scored 2+ rate5.6%
Scored 3+ rate15.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.37
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.34
Conceded Std0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate8.1%
Conceded 3+ rate8.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.52
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.35
Stability score2.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.58
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate5.5%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate19.6%
Trailing Win Rate16.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.03
Portability Score-1.74
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.15
Current Team ELO-7.01
Current Opponent ELO7.01
Current ELO Difference-14.02
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kaiserslautern II

L
Kaiserslautern II0–3Stuttgarter Kickers7 Nov · home
Pick: Kaiserslautern II 41% · missed
L
VfR Mannheim3–2Kaiserslautern II31 Oct · away
Pick: VfR Mannheim 60% · hit
D
Kaiserslautern II2–2Freiburg II23 Oct · home
Pick: Kaiserslautern II 42% · missed
L
Eintracht Frankfurt II2–1Kaiserslautern II17 Oct · away
Pick: Eintracht Frankfurt II 61% · hit
D
Kaiserslautern II2–2FSV Frankfurt14 Oct · home
Pick: FSV Frankfurt 41% · missed

VfR Aalen

L
VfR Aalen3–4Hessen Kassel7 Nov · home
Pick: VfR Aalen 41% · missed
W
Stuttgarter Kickers0–1VfR Aalen31 Oct · away
Pick: Stuttgarter Kickers 56% · missed
W
SV Sandhausen0–1VfR Aalen24 Oct · away
Pick: SV Sandhausen 44% · missed
W
VfR Aalen2–0FC Astoria Walldorf17 Oct · home
Pick: VfR Aalen 60% · hit
W
FSV Mainz 05 II1–3VfR Aalen30 Aug · away
Pick: FSV Mainz 05 II 47% · missed

About this match

Kaiserslautern II and VfR Aalen meet in Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Kaiserslautern II win 37.0%, draw 23.9%, VfR Aalen win 39.2%. The pick is VfR Aalen win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.9%. Both teams to score: 62.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.