ScoreProb
Log in
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany Sudwest - 16 2026

VfR Mannheim vs SV Sandhausen

VfR Mannheim Home · Elo 1,598
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
SV Sandhausen Away · Elo 1,527
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: VfR Mannheim win
VfR Mannheim winPick
49.2%
Draw
23.5%
SV Sandhausen win
27.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.2%
No35.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.9%
Under 2.531.1%

How much we know

VfR Mannheim history63 matches
SV Sandhausen history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.2%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why VfR Mannheim are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • VfR Mannheim are rated 71 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,598 against 1,527. On rating alone VfR Mannheim would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • VfR Mannheim score more

    2.24 goals a game over 63 matches for VfR Mannheim, against 1.58 over 67 for SV Sandhausen.

  • VfR Mannheim concede fewer

    VfR Mannheim concede 1.30 a game, SV Sandhausen 1.93.

  • SV Sandhausen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of VfR Mannheim matches, against 72% for SV Sandhausen. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
VfR Mannheim
SV Sandhausen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1597.8
ELO
1527.1
63
ELO · Matches
67
1597.8
Current Team ELO
1527.1
1527.1
Current Opponent ELO
1597.8
70.67
Current ELO Difference
-70.67
0.60
Expected score
0.40
63
History Matches
67
0.08
Residual Mean
0.03
56.22
Overperformance
52.22
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
2.60
1.20
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.50
2.00
Goals for per game
2.40
1.40
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
67
1.86
PPG
1.25
54.0%
Win rate
35.8%
23.8%
Draw rate
17.9%
22.2%
Loss rate
46.3%
84.1%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
63.5%
Over 2.5 rate
71.6%
47.6%
Over 3.5 rate
50.7%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
31
1.79
PPG
1.45
50.0%
Win rate
45.2%
29.4%
Draw rate
9.7%
20.6%
Loss rate
45.2%
91.2%
Over 1.5 rate
90.3%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
77.4%
47.1%
Over 3.5 rate
48.4%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
34
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.24
Goals for per game
1.58
85.7%
Scoring rate
77.6%
60.3%
BTTS rate
67.2%
2.29
Goals for per game
1.74
85.3%
Scoring rate
80.6%
58.8%
BTTS rate
74.2%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
63
History Matches
67
2.24
Goals Mean
1.58
1.75
Goals Std
1.36
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
77.6%
55.6%
Scored 2+ rate
44.8%
38.1%
Scored 3+ rate
22.4%
2.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.74
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.93
68.3%
Conceding rate
85.1%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.90
64.7%
Conceding rate
93.5%
1.33
Goals against per game
2.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
63
History Matches
67
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.93
1.28
Conceded Std
1.26
36.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
64.2%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.9%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.90
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.9%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
6.5%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.9%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
6.5%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
67
0.92
Result entropy
0.94
2.17
Goal Difference Std
1.72
8.18
Stability score
6.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
67
27
Lead Matches
19
81.5%
Lead Win Rate
84.2%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.86
12
Trailing Matches
28
50.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
1.02
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.04
1.24
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
49
1.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
22
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.67
PPG
1.33
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
66.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.67
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.68
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.53
Portability PPG Range
1.12
42.37
Portability Score
55.12
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO70.67
PPG0.60
GF0.66
GA-0.62
PPG-0.67
PPG0.34
PPG-0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate16.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate28.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.66
Goals Std0.39
Scored 1+ rate8.1%
Scored 2+ rate10.8%
Scored 3+ rate15.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.55
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.62
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate16.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.28
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.45
Stability score2.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.25
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-16
Non-loss rate21.4%
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.27
Portability PPG Range0.41
Portability Score-12.75
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.59
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.35
Current Team ELO70.67
Current Opponent ELO-70.67
Current ELO Difference141.3
Expected score0.20
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance4.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

VfR Mannheim

W
SSV Ulm 18460–1VfR Mannheim7 Nov · away
Pick: VfR Mannheim 44% · hit
W
VfR Mannheim3–2Kaiserslautern II31 Oct · home
Pick: VfR Mannheim 60% · hit
W
TSV Steinbach0–2VfR Mannheim24 Oct · away
Pick: TSV Steinbach 44% · missed
W
Hessen Kassel0–3VfR Mannheim17 Oct · away
Pick: Hessen Kassel 42% · missed
W
Eintracht Frankfurt II0–1VfR Mannheim14 Oct · away
Pick: Eintracht Frankfurt II 45% · missed

SV Sandhausen

D
SV Sandhausen1–1Eintracht Frankfurt II7 Nov · home
Pick: SV Sandhausen 43% · missed
L
FSV Mainz 05 II2–1SV Sandhausen30 Oct · away
Pick: FSV Mainz 05 II 41% · hit
L
SV Sandhausen0–1VfR Aalen24 Oct · home
Pick: SV Sandhausen 44% · missed
W
SV Sandhausen1–0Kickers Offenbach16 Oct · home
Pick: Kickers Offenbach 43% · missed
L
Eintracht Trier2–0SV Sandhausen29 Aug · away
Pick: Eintracht Trier 49% · hit

About this match

VfR Mannheim and SV Sandhausen meet in Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: VfR Mannheim win 49.2%, draw 23.5%, SV Sandhausen win 27.3%. The pick is VfR Mannheim win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.9%. Both teams to score: 64.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.