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Regionalliga - SudWest Germany Sudwest - 16 2026

Stuttgarter Kickers vs Hessen Kassel

Stuttgarter Kickers Home · Elo 1,571
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hessen Kassel Away · Elo 1,558
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stuttgarter Kickers win
Stuttgarter Kickers winPick
50.5%
Draw
21.2%
Hessen Kassel win
28.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.1%
No37.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.7%
Under 2.536.3%

How much we know

Stuttgarter Kickers history63 matches
Hessen Kassel history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.5%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Stuttgarter Kickers are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,571 against 1,558. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.83 goals a game over 63 matches for Stuttgarter Kickers, against 1.91 over 66 for Hessen Kassel.

  • Defences are close

    Stuttgarter Kickers concede 1.48 a game, Hessen Kassel 1.47.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    71% of Stuttgarter Kickers matches, against 73% for Hessen Kassel. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stuttgarter Kickers
Hessen Kassel@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1571.2
ELO
1557.9
63
ELO · Matches
66
1571.2
Current Team ELO
1557.9
1557.9
Current Opponent ELO
1571.2
13.32
Current ELO Difference
-13.32
0.52
Expected score
0.48
63
History Matches
66
0.07
Residual Mean
0.04
55.06
Overperformance
52.83
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.20
2.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
2.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.20
2.30
Goals for per game
1.40
1.10
Goals against per game
2.00
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.73
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
66
1.60
PPG
1.65
49.2%
Win rate
48.5%
12.7%
Draw rate
19.7%
38.1%
Loss rate
31.8%
87.3%
Over 1.5 rate
87.9%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
36.5%
Over 3.5 rate
48.5%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
35
2.03
PPG
1.51
62.9%
Win rate
45.7%
14.3%
Draw rate
14.3%
22.9%
Loss rate
40.0%
91.4%
Over 1.5 rate
88.6%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
77.1%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
51.4%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
35
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.83
Goals for per game
1.91
82.5%
Scoring rate
83.3%
55.6%
BTTS rate
65.2%
2.34
Goals for per game
1.94
88.6%
Scoring rate
85.7%
54.3%
BTTS rate
74.3%
3.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
63
History Matches
66
1.83
Goals Mean
1.91
1.43
Goals Std
1.31
82.5%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
47.6%
Scored 2+ rate
62.1%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
28.8%
2.34
Venue Goals Mean
1.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.48
Goals against per game
1.47
71.4%
Conceding rate
77.3%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.63
65.7%
Conceding rate
85.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
63
History Matches
66
1.48
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.22
Conceded Std
1.21
50.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.4%
19.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.7%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
66
0.89
Result entropy
0.94
2.14
Goal Difference Std
1.99
10.92
Stability score
5.76
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
66
19
Lead Matches
20
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.85
16
Trailing Matches
23
12.5%
Non-loss rate
34.8%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
13.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.87
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.92
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
90.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.80
44
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.86
17
Long Rest History Matches
18
2.06
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
2.33
PPG
1.50
66.7%
Win rate
50.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
2.33
Current Competition PPG
1.50
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.47
1.19
Portability PPG Range
1.29
52.34
Portability Score
51.43
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO13.32
PPG-0.05
GF-0.08
GA0.01
PPG0.83
PPG0.51
PPG0.80
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Failed-to-score rate0.8%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate4.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.01
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Conceded 2+ rate8.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.60
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.15
Stability score5.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.08
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate4.2%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.83
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score0.91
Rest days-6.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.80
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.89
Current Team ELO13.32
Current Opponent ELO-13.32
Current ELO Difference26.63
Expected score0.04
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.36

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Stuttgarter Kickers

W
Kaiserslautern II0–3Stuttgarter Kickers7 Nov · away
Pick: Kaiserslautern II 41% · missed
L
Stuttgarter Kickers0–1VfR Aalen31 Oct · home
Pick: Stuttgarter Kickers 56% · missed
L
Eintracht Trier2–0Stuttgarter Kickers24 Oct · away
Pick: Eintracht Trier 42% · hit
W
Stuttgarter Kickers3–1TSV Steinbach17 Oct · home
Pick: Stuttgarter Kickers 50% · hit
W
FC 08 Homburg0–1Stuttgarter Kickers29 Aug · away
Pick: FC 08 Homburg 50% · missed

Hessen Kassel

W
VfR Aalen3–4Hessen Kassel7 Nov · away
Pick: VfR Aalen 41% · missed
L
Hessen Kassel0–1Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.31 Oct · home
Pick: Hessen Kassel 39% · missed
L
FC Astoria Walldorf4–1Hessen Kassel24 Oct · away
Pick: Hessen Kassel 45% · missed
L
Hessen Kassel0–3VfR Mannheim17 Oct · home
Pick: Hessen Kassel 42% · missed
L
Hessen Kassel0–1Eintracht Trier1 Sep · home
Pick: Hessen Kassel 41% · missed

About this match

Stuttgarter Kickers and Hessen Kassel meet in Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Stuttgarter Kickers win 50.5%, draw 21.2%, Hessen Kassel win 28.2%. The pick is Stuttgarter Kickers win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.7%. Both teams to score: 62.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.