ScoreProb
Log in
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany Sudwest - 16 2026

TSV Steinbach vs SSV Ulm 1846

TSV Steinbach Home · Elo 1,588
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
SSV Ulm 1846 Away · Elo 1,416
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: TSV Steinbach win
TSV Steinbach winPick
49.5%
Draw
24.0%
SSV Ulm 1846 win
26.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.6%
No33.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.8%
Under 2.525.2%

How much we know

TSV Steinbach history65 matches
SSV Ulm 1846 history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why TSV Steinbach are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • TSV Steinbach are rated 172 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,588 against 1,416. On rating alone TSV Steinbach would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • TSV Steinbach score more

    2.00 goals a game over 65 matches for TSV Steinbach, against 1.33 over 70 for SSV Ulm 1846.

  • TSV Steinbach concede fewer

    TSV Steinbach concede 1.66 a game, SSV Ulm 1846 1.91.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    69% of TSV Steinbach matches, against 63% for SSV Ulm 1846. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
TSV Steinbach
SSV Ulm 1846@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1588.3
ELO
1416.1
65
ELO · Matches
70
1588.3
Current Team ELO
1416.1
1416.1
Current Opponent ELO
1588.3
172.2
Current ELO Difference
-172.2
0.73
Expected score
0.27
65
History Matches
70
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.05
54.55
Overperformance
45.99
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.20
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
2.60
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.30
2.00
Goals for per game
1.90
2.20
Goals against per game
2.10
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.41
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.82
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.09
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
70
1.66
PPG
0.96
47.7%
Win rate
25.7%
23.1%
Draw rate
18.6%
29.2%
Loss rate
55.7%
83.1%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
69.2%
Over 2.5 rate
62.9%
53.8%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
33
1.57
PPG
0.82
43.3%
Win rate
18.2%
26.7%
Draw rate
27.3%
30.0%
Loss rate
54.5%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
84.8%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.6%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
30
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
1.33
84.6%
Scoring rate
78.6%
69.2%
BTTS rate
68.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.30
83.3%
Scoring rate
84.8%
70.0%
BTTS rate
75.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
65
History Matches
70
2.00
Goals Mean
1.33
1.51
Goals Std
1.14
84.6%
Scored 1+ rate
78.6%
53.8%
Scored 2+ rate
32.9%
35.4%
Scored 3+ rate
12.9%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.66
Goals against per game
1.91
80.0%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.73
Goals against per game
2.03
80.0%
Conceding rate
84.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
70
1.66
Conceded Mean
1.91
1.47
Conceded Std
1.43
46.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.9%
21.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.4%
1.73
Venue Conceded Mean
2.03
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.2%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.2%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
70
0.96
Result entropy
0.90
2.21
Goal Difference Std
1.84
4.33
Stability score
10.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
69
28
Lead Matches
17
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
64.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.71
14
Trailing Matches
22
35.7%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
1.08
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.92
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.92
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.22
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
43
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.77
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.05
18
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.81
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
0.33
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
5
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.44
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.33
60.02
Portability Score
53.11
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO172.2
PPG0.70
GF0.67
GA-0.25
PPG0.67
PPG0.75
PPG1.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Failed-to-score rate1.5%
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.67
Goals Std0.37
Scored 1+ rate6.0%
Scored 2+ rate21.0%
Scored 3+ rate22.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.26
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.37
Stability score-5.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.73
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate13.9%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate26.6%
Trailing Win Rate2.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.33
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.33
Portability Score6.90
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.72
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.69
Current Team ELO172.2
Current Opponent ELO-172.2
Current ELO Difference344.5
Expected score0.46
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance8.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

TSV Steinbach

W
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.0–2TSV Steinbach7 Nov · away
Pick: Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 43% · missed
D
TSV Steinbach2–2FSV Frankfurt30 Oct · home
Pick: FSV Frankfurt 41% · missed
L
TSV Steinbach0–2VfR Mannheim24 Oct · home
Pick: TSV Steinbach 44% · missed
L
Stuttgarter Kickers3–1TSV Steinbach17 Oct · away
Pick: Stuttgarter Kickers 50% · hit
W
TSV Steinbach2–1Hessen Kassel29 Aug · home
Pick: TSV Steinbach 52% · hit

SSV Ulm 1846

L
SSV Ulm 18460–1VfR Mannheim7 Nov · home
Pick: VfR Mannheim 44% · hit
D
Freiburg II1–1SSV Ulm 184631 Oct · away
Pick: Freiburg II 56% · missed
D
SSV Ulm 18461–1FC 08 Homburg25 Oct · home
Pick: FC 08 Homburg 50% · missed
D
FSV Mainz 05 II1–1SSV Ulm 184617 Oct · away
Pick: FSV Mainz 05 II 53% · missed
D
FC Astoria Walldorf0–0SSV Ulm 184629 Aug · away
Pick: FC Astoria Walldorf 44% · missed

About this match

TSV Steinbach and SSV Ulm 1846 meet in Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: TSV Steinbach win 49.5%, draw 24.0%, SSV Ulm 1846 win 26.6%. The pick is TSV Steinbach win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.8%. Both teams to score: 66.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.