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Tweede Divisie Netherlands Round 13 2026

GVVV Veenendaal vs Spakenburg

GVVV Veenendaal Home · Elo 1,482
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Spakenburg Away · Elo 1,551
Sportpark Panhuis, Veenendaal Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Spakenburg win
GVVV Veenendaal win
27.0%
Draw
21.1%
Spakenburg winPick
51.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.8%
No38.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.1%
Under 2.528.9%

How much we know

GVVV Veenendaal history60 matches
Spakenburg history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.8%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Spakenburg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Spakenburg are rated 69 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,551 against 1,482. On rating alone Spakenburg would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Spakenburg score more

    1.65 goals a game over 60 matches for GVVV Veenendaal, against 2.07 over 58 for Spakenburg.

  • Defences are close

    GVVV Veenendaal concede 1.97 a game, Spakenburg 1.78.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    72% of GVVV Veenendaal matches, against 72% for Spakenburg. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
GVVV Veenendaal
Spakenburg@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1481.6
ELO
1551.0
60
ELO · Matches
58
1481.6
Current Team ELO
1551.0
1551.0
Current Opponent ELO
1481.6
-69.37
Current ELO Difference
69.37
0.40
Expected score
0.60
60
History Matches
58
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.05
48.65
Overperformance
53.73
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
2.60
Goals for per game
1.40
2.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.70
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.90
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.72
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
2.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
58
1.35
PPG
1.59
40.0%
Win rate
46.6%
15.0%
Draw rate
19.0%
45.0%
Loss rate
34.5%
91.7%
Over 1.5 rate
87.9%
71.7%
Over 2.5 rate
72.4%
43.3%
Over 3.5 rate
55.2%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
27
1.55
PPG
1.07
44.8%
Win rate
25.9%
20.7%
Draw rate
29.6%
34.5%
Loss rate
44.4%
93.1%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
79.3%
Over 2.5 rate
70.4%
44.8%
Over 3.5 rate
48.1%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
29
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.65
Goals for per game
2.07
83.3%
Scoring rate
91.4%
65.0%
BTTS rate
72.4%
1.93
Goals for per game
1.63
93.1%
Scoring rate
85.2%
79.3%
BTTS rate
74.1%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
60
History Matches
58
1.65
Goals Mean
2.07
1.28
Goals Std
1.38
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
91.4%
48.3%
Scored 2+ rate
62.1%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
36.2%
1.93
Venue Goals Mean
1.63
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.97
Goals against per game
1.78
80.0%
Conceding rate
79.3%
1.79
Goals against per game
1.89
86.2%
Conceding rate
85.2%
4.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
60
History Matches
58
1.97
Conceded Mean
1.78
1.57
Conceded Std
1.51
55.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.6%
35.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.6%
1.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.89
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
8.6%
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
6.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
8.6%
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
6.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
58
0.92
Result entropy
0.95
2.19
Goal Difference Std
2.08
8.03
Stability score
5.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
58
18
Lead Matches
21
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
76.2%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.79
21
Trailing Matches
17
14.3%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.95
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.24
1.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.07
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
36
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
23
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.22
1.29
Portability PPG Range
0.57
50.19
Portability Score
69.43
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-69.37
PPG-0.24
GF-0.42
GA0.19
PPG-1.50
PPG0.48
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate8.0%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.42
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.70
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.19
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate8.4%
Conceded 3+ rate7.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.82
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score2.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.41
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate7.1%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.28
Portability PPG Range0.71
Portability Score-19.24
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Current Team ELO-69.37
Current Opponent ELO69.37
Current ELO Difference-138.7
Expected score-0.20
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

GVVV Veenendaal

W
Katwijk1–3GVVV Veenendaal7 Nov · away
Pick: Katwijk 59% · missed
W
GVVV Veenendaal3–0Noordwijk29 Oct · home
Pick: GVVV Veenendaal 47% · hit
W
GVVV Veenendaal2–0Koninklijke HFC24 Oct · home
Pick: GVVV Veenendaal 43% · hit
L
HHC2–1GVVV Veenendaal17 Oct · away
Pick: HHC 63% · hit
L
Kozakken Boys3–2GVVV Veenendaal29 Aug · away
Pick: Kozakken Boys 62% · hit

Spakenburg

W
Spakenburg4–1Kloetinge7 Nov · home
Pick: Spakenburg 44% · hit
L
Ijsselmeervogels2–1Spakenburg24 Oct · away
Pick: Ijsselmeervogels 42% · hit
D
Spakenburg1–1Quick Boys17 Oct · home
Pick: Quick Boys 53% · missed
W
Hoek0–2Spakenburg29 Aug · away
Pick: Hoek 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

GVVV Veenendaal and Spakenburg meet in Tweede Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Sportpark Panhuis, Veenendaal. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: GVVV Veenendaal win 27.0%, draw 21.1%, Spakenburg win 51.8%. The pick is Spakenburg win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.1%. Both teams to score: 61.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.