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Tweede Divisie Netherlands Round 13 2026

Quick Boys vs Almere City II

Quick Boys Home · Elo 1,629
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Almere City II Away · Elo 1,551
Sportpark Nieuw Zuid, Katwijk Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Quick Boys win
Quick Boys winPick
69.4%
Draw
15.3%
Almere City II win
15.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.1%
No43.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.7%
Under 2.532.3%

How much we know

Quick Boys history59 matches
Almere City II history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (69.4%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Quick Boys are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Quick Boys are rated 78 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,629 against 1,551. On rating alone Quick Boys would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Almere City II score more

    2.07 goals a game over 59 matches for Quick Boys, against 2.55 over 53 for Almere City II.

  • Quick Boys concede fewer

    Quick Boys concede 1.07 a game, Almere City II 1.66.

  • Almere City II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    61% of Quick Boys matches, against 87% for Almere City II. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Quick Boys
Almere City II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1628.9
ELO
1551.4
59
ELO · Matches
53
1628.9
Current Team ELO
1551.4
1551.4
Current Opponent ELO
1628.9
77.52
Current ELO Difference
-77.52
0.61
Expected score
0.39
59
History Matches
53
0.10
Residual Mean
0.04
57.79
Overperformance
52.79
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.40
2.00
Goals for per game
2.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.80
2.40
Goals for per game
1.90
1.30
Goals against per game
1.70
70.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.62
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.70
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
2.59
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
53
2.05
PPG
1.75
62.7%
Win rate
54.7%
16.9%
Draw rate
11.3%
20.3%
Loss rate
34.0%
84.7%
Over 1.5 rate
94.3%
61.0%
Over 2.5 rate
86.8%
35.6%
Over 3.5 rate
58.5%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
29
2.00
PPG
1.48
62.1%
Win rate
44.8%
13.8%
Draw rate
13.8%
24.1%
Loss rate
41.4%
72.4%
Over 1.5 rate
89.7%
55.2%
Over 2.5 rate
79.3%
34.5%
Over 3.5 rate
51.7%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.46
29
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.07
Goals for per game
2.55
89.8%
Scoring rate
88.7%
59.3%
BTTS rate
64.2%
1.97
Goals for per game
2.28
82.8%
Scoring rate
79.3%
44.8%
BTTS rate
51.7%
3.00
Goals for per game
2.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
59
History Matches
53
2.07
Goals Mean
2.55
1.49
Goals Std
1.70
89.8%
Scored 1+ rate
88.7%
55.9%
Scored 2+ rate
66.0%
32.2%
Scored 3+ rate
50.9%
1.97
Venue Goals Mean
2.28
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.07
Goals against per game
1.66
67.8%
Conceding rate
73.6%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.69
58.6%
Conceding rate
69.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
59
History Matches
53
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.66
1.02
Conceded Std
1.36
25.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.9%
10.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.3%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
10.2%
Failed-to-score rate
11.3%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
32.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
10.2%
Failed-to-score rate
11.3%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
32.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
53
0.84
Result entropy
0.86
1.97
Goal Difference Std
2.38
16.50
Stability score
14.13
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
51
29
Lead Matches
22
89.7%
Lead Win Rate
86.4%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.89
8
Trailing Matches
13
37.5%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.91
First Half Goals For Mean
1.12
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
1.16
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.29
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.04
Rest days
84.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
33
Normal Rest History Matches
27
2.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
25
Long Rest History Matches
25
2.16
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
1.50
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.50
7
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.73
Portability PPG Std
0.39
2.00
Portability PPG Range
0.96
40.68
Portability Score
56.07
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO77.52
PPG0.30
GF-0.48
GA-0.59
PPG1.50
PPG0.52
PPG-0.60
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate10.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.48
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate1.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.59
Conceded Std-0.34
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.26
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-0.72
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.22
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.42
Stability score2.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.23
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate3.3%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate22.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.34
Portability PPG Range1.04
Portability Score-15.39
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.47
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.24
Current Team ELO77.52
Current Opponent ELO-77.52
Current ELO Difference155.0
Expected score0.22
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Quick Boys

W
Barendrecht1–2Quick Boys7 Nov · away
Pick: Quick Boys 67% · hit
W
Quick Boys4–0Eemdijk28 Oct · home
Pick: Quick Boys 62% · hit
W
Quick Boys3–1Hoek24 Oct · home
Pick: Quick Boys 60% · hit
D
Spakenburg1–1Quick Boys17 Oct · away
Pick: Quick Boys 53% · missed
W
Quick Boys4–0Kloetinge29 Aug · home
Pick: Quick Boys 65% · hit

Almere City II

L
Almere City II1–5Kozakken Boys7 Nov · home
Pick: Almere City II 51% · missed
W
AFC Amsterdam0–1Almere City II24 Oct · away
Pick: Almere City II 50% · hit
L
Almere City II2–3De Treffers17 Oct · home
Pick: De Treffers 52% · hit
L
Almere City II1–2Koninklijke HFC29 Aug · home
Pick: Almere City II 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Quick Boys and Almere City II meet in Tweede Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Sportpark Nieuw Zuid, Katwijk. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Quick Boys win 69.4%, draw 15.3%, Almere City II win 15.3%. The pick is Quick Boys win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.7%. Both teams to score: 56.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.