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Tweede Divisie Netherlands Round 13 2026

Rijnsburgse Boys vs Koninklijke HFC

Rijnsburgse Boys Home · Elo 1,559
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Koninklijke HFC Away · Elo 1,451
Sportpark Middelmors, Rijnsburg Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rijnsburgse Boys win
Rijnsburgse Boys winPick
39.6%
Draw
25.6%
Koninklijke HFC win
34.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.3%
No42.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.8%
Under 2.535.2%

How much we know

Rijnsburgse Boys history60 matches
Koninklijke HFC history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.6%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Rijnsburgse Boys are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rijnsburgse Boys are rated 108 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,559 against 1,451. On rating alone Rijnsburgse Boys would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Rijnsburgse Boys score far more

    2.25 goals a game over 60 matches for Rijnsburgse Boys, against 1.13 over 54 for Koninklijke HFC.

  • Koninklijke HFC concede fewer

    Rijnsburgse Boys concede 1.62 a game, Koninklijke HFC 1.37.

  • Rijnsburgse Boys games more often go over 2.5 goals

    73% of Rijnsburgse Boys matches, against 52% for Koninklijke HFC. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rijnsburgse Boys
Koninklijke HFC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1558.7
ELO
1450.8
60
ELO · Matches
54
1558.7
Current Team ELO
1450.8
1450.8
Current Opponent ELO
1558.7
107.9
Current ELO Difference
-107.9
0.65
Expected score
0.35
60
History Matches
54
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.04
53.98
Overperformance
46.73
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.33
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
2.60
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.30
2.30
Goals for per game
0.70
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.95
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.84
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
3.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
54
1.73
PPG
1.24
51.7%
Win rate
37.0%
18.3%
Draw rate
13.0%
30.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
88.3%
Over 1.5 rate
70.4%
73.3%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
56.7%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
27
2.03
PPG
0.56
62.5%
Win rate
14.8%
15.6%
Draw rate
11.1%
21.9%
Loss rate
74.1%
90.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.4%
68.8%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
32
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.25
Goals for per game
1.13
86.7%
Scoring rate
61.1%
65.0%
BTTS rate
42.6%
2.56
Goals for per game
0.70
93.8%
Scoring rate
44.4%
56.3%
BTTS rate
40.7%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
54
2.25
Goals Mean
1.13
1.58
Goals Std
1.20
86.7%
Scored 1+ rate
61.1%
65.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
38.3%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
2.56
Venue Goals Mean
0.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.62
Goals against per game
1.37
75.0%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.31
Goals against per game
1.89
59.4%
Conceding rate
88.9%
5.00
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
54
1.62
Conceded Mean
1.37
1.39
Conceded Std
1.11
46.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.6%
26.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.31
Venue Conceded Mean
1.89
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
40.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
6.3%
Failed-to-score rate
55.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
40.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
6.3%
Failed-to-score rate
55.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
54
0.92
Result entropy
0.89
2.24
Goal Difference Std
1.80
7.76
Stability score
10.86
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
54
26
Lead Matches
13
80.8%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.85
18
Trailing Matches
19
16.7%
Non-loss rate
10.5%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
1.10
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.86
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
32
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
26
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.09
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-3.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.28
0.85
Portability PPG Range
0.57
59.15
Portability Score
63.81
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO107.9
PPG0.49
GF1.12
GA0.25
PPG0.00
PPG1.48
PPG0.40
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate29.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.49
History Matches6
Goals Mean1.12
Goals Std0.37
Scored 1+ rate25.6%
Scored 2+ rate31.7%
Scored 3+ rate27.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.86
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std1.05
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.25
Conceded Std0.28
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate4.1%
Conceded 3+ rate10.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.95
History Matches6
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.43
Stability score-3.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.81
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate6.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.29
Portability Score-4.66
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.36
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.72
Current Team ELO107.9
Current Opponent ELO-107.9
Current ELO Difference215.8
Expected score0.30
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rijnsburgse Boys

L
HHC2–0Rijnsburgse Boys7 Nov · away
Pick: HHC 55% · hit
L
Rijnsburgse Boys3–5Den Bosch27 Oct · home
Pick: Den Bosch 42% · hit
L
Rijnsburgse Boys0–1RKAV Volendam24 Oct · home
Pick: RKAV Volendam 42% · hit
W
Rijnsburgse Boys1–0ROHDA Raalte17 Oct · home
Pick: Rijnsburgse Boys 56% · hit
D
De Treffers1–1Rijnsburgse Boys29 Aug · away
Pick: De Treffers 64% · missed

Koninklijke HFC

W
Koninklijke HFC4–1ROHDA Raalte7 Nov · home
Pick: Koninklijke HFC 58% · hit
L
Koninklijke HFC0–5GO Ahead Eagles27 Oct · home
Pick: GO Ahead Eagles 50% · hit
L
GVVV Veenendaal2–0Koninklijke HFC24 Oct · away
Pick: GVVV Veenendaal 43% · hit
W
Koninklijke HFC2–1Kloetinge17 Oct · home
Pick: Kloetinge 54% · missed
W
LONGA '300–4Koninklijke HFC1 Sep · away
Pick: Draw 36% · missed

About this match

Rijnsburgse Boys and Koninklijke HFC meet in Tweede Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Sportpark Middelmors, Rijnsburg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Rijnsburgse Boys win 39.6%, draw 25.6%, Koninklijke HFC win 34.9%. The pick is Rijnsburgse Boys win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.8%. Both teams to score: 57.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.