Kozakken Boys vs Sparta Rotterdam II
Match result probability Model pick: Sparta Rotterdam II win
Kozakken Boys win
35.2%
Draw
24.6%
Sparta Rotterdam II winPick
40.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes64.6%
No35.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.569.2%
Under 2.530.8%
How much we know
Kozakken Boys history60 matches
Sparta Rotterdam II history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Sparta Rotterdam II
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.2%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Sparta Rotterdam II are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,519 against 1,517. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Sparta Rotterdam II score more
1.62 goals a game over 60 matches for Kozakken Boys, against 2.28 over 60 for Sparta Rotterdam II.
-
Kozakken Boys concede fewer
Kozakken Boys concede 1.35 a game, Sparta Rotterdam II 2.05.
-
Sparta Rotterdam II games more often go over 2.5 goals
57% of Kozakken Boys matches, against 80% for Sparta Rotterdam II. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sparta Rotterdam II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1519.3
ELO
1516.8
60
ELO · Matches
60
1519.3
Current Team ELO
1516.8
1516.8
Current Opponent ELO
1519.3
2.45
Current ELO Difference
-2.45
0.50
Expected score
0.50
60
History Matches
60
0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
51.38
Overperformance
51.11
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
3.40
2.00
Goals against per game
2.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
2.40
1.70
Goals against per game
2.40
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.91
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.41
Overall performance9 signals 90
60
Matches
60
1.50
PPG
1.35
41.7%
Win rate
36.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
38.3%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
96.7%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
35.0%
Over 3.5 rate
63.3%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.53
Venue performance10 signals 100
31
Matches
30
1.48
PPG
1.23
41.9%
Win rate
33.3%
22.6%
Draw rate
23.3%
35.5%
Loss rate
43.3%
77.4%
Over 1.5 rate
93.3%
61.3%
Over 2.5 rate
73.3%
41.9%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.54
31
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.62
Goals for per game
2.28
81.7%
Scoring rate
90.0%
58.3%
BTTS rate
76.7%
1.74
Goals for per game
2.00
80.6%
Scoring rate
83.3%
54.8%
BTTS rate
73.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
6.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
60
1.62
Goals Mean
2.28
1.40
Goals Std
1.70
81.7%
Scored 1+ rate
90.0%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
60.0%
23.3%
Scored 3+ rate
36.7%
1.74
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.35
Goals against per game
2.05
70.0%
Conceding rate
85.0%
1.35
Goals against per game
1.93
64.5%
Conceding rate
86.7%
2.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
60
1.35
Conceded Mean
2.05
1.18
Conceded Std
1.45
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.0%
21.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
40.0%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
1.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
18.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
18.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
60
History Matches
60
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.83
Goal Difference Std
2.53
1.92
Stability score
1.51
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
59
Eligible Matches
60
17
Lead Matches
24
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.82
18
Trailing Matches
22
38.9%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
22.2%
Trailing Win Rate
13.6%
Goal timing5 signals 50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.20
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.18
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
31
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
26
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
4.00
7
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.74
Portability PPG Range
0.86
62.55
Portability Score
56.66
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
60
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO2.45
PPG0.15
GF-0.67
GA-0.70
PPG-2.50
PPG0.25
PPG-0.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate15.0%
Failed-to-score rate8.3%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate22.2%
Failed-to-score rate2.7%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.67
Goals Std-0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.79
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.70
Conceded Std-0.27
Clean-sheet rate15.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.01
History Matches0
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.70
Stability score0.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.11
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate7.4%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate11.6%
Trailing Win Rate8.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.40
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.12
Portability Score5.89
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.57
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Current Team ELO2.45
Current Opponent ELO-2.45
Current ELO Difference4.90
Expected score0.01
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Kozakken Boys
W
Almere City II1–5Kozakken Boys7 Nov · away
Pick: Almere City II 51% · missed L
Kozakken Boys0–1Utrecht29 Oct · home
Pick: Utrecht 44% · hit L
Kozakken Boys0–1Barendrecht24 Oct · home
Pick: Kozakken Boys 54% · missed D
Hoek0–0Kozakken Boys17 Oct · away
Pick: Hoek 51% · missed W
Kozakken Boys3–2GVVV Veenendaal29 Aug · home
Pick: Kozakken Boys 62% · hit Sparta Rotterdam II
D
Sparta Rotterdam II5–5AFC Amsterdam7 Nov · home
Pick: Sparta Rotterdam II 62% · missed D
De Treffers3–3Sparta Rotterdam II24 Oct · away
Pick: De Treffers 54% · missed L
RKAV Volendam2–1Sparta Rotterdam II17 Oct · away
Pick: Sparta Rotterdam II 54% · missed L
Sparta Rotterdam II1–3HHC29 Aug · home
Pick: Sparta Rotterdam II 53% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Kozakken Boys and Sparta Rotterdam II meet in Tweede Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at De Zwaaier, Werkendam. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Kozakken Boys win 35.2%, draw 24.6%, Sparta Rotterdam II win 40.2%. The pick is Sparta Rotterdam II win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.2%. Both teams to score: 64.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.