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Tweede Divisie Netherlands Round 13 2026

Ijsselmeervogels vs Barendrecht

Ijsselmeervogels Home · Elo 1,517
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Barendrecht Away · Elo 1,488
Sportpark De Westmaat, Spakenburg Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ijsselmeervogels win
Ijsselmeervogels winPick
55.1%
Draw
21.0%
Barendrecht win
23.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.9%
No37.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.1%
Under 2.528.9%

How much we know

Ijsselmeervogels history59 matches
Barendrecht history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.1%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Ijsselmeervogels are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ijsselmeervogels are rated 29 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,517 against 1,488. On rating alone Ijsselmeervogels would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Ijsselmeervogels score more

    2.10 goals a game over 59 matches for Ijsselmeervogels, against 1.69 over 55 for Barendrecht.

  • Ijsselmeervogels concede fewer

    Ijsselmeervogels concede 1.61 a game, Barendrecht 2.16.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    73% of Ijsselmeervogels matches, against 78% for Barendrecht. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ijsselmeervogels
Barendrecht@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1516.5
ELO
1488.0
59
ELO · Matches
55
1516.5
Current Team ELO
1488.0
1488.0
Current Opponent ELO
1516.5
28.55
Current ELO Difference
-28.55
0.54
Expected score
0.46
59
History Matches
55
0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
51.13
Overperformance
49.69
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
3.00
Goals for per game
2.00
2.40
Goals against per game
2.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
0.90
2.90
Goals for per game
1.50
1.50
Goals against per game
2.70
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
2.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.70
2.06
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
3.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
55
1.51
PPG
1.25
45.8%
Win rate
36.4%
13.6%
Draw rate
16.4%
40.7%
Loss rate
47.3%
88.1%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
72.9%
Over 2.5 rate
78.2%
47.5%
Over 3.5 rate
52.7%
2.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
26
1.60
PPG
1.15
50.0%
Win rate
30.8%
10.0%
Draw rate
23.1%
40.0%
Loss rate
46.2%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
43.3%
Over 3.5 rate
42.3%
2.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
30
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.10
Goals for per game
1.69
76.3%
Scoring rate
76.4%
52.5%
BTTS rate
70.9%
2.13
Goals for per game
1.38
76.7%
Scoring rate
69.2%
46.7%
BTTS rate
65.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
55
2.10
Goals Mean
1.69
2.00
Goals Std
1.40
76.3%
Scored 1+ rate
76.4%
61.0%
Scored 2+ rate
50.9%
30.5%
Scored 3+ rate
23.6%
2.13
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.61
Goals against per game
2.16
74.6%
Conceding rate
90.9%
1.57
Goals against per game
2.15
66.7%
Conceding rate
88.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
55
1.61
Conceded Mean
2.16
1.43
Conceded Std
1.58
45.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.0%
27.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
34.5%
1.57
Venue Conceded Mean
2.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
55
0.91
Result entropy
0.93
2.73
Goal Difference Std
2.35
9.47
Stability score
7.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
53
26
Lead Matches
17
73.1%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.80
19
Trailing Matches
19
26.3%
Non-loss rate
26.3%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
1.19
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.34
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
31
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.42
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
24
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
5
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.71
Portability PPG Std
0.40
1.42
Portability PPG Range
0.93
41.30
Portability Score
55.55
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO28.55
PPG0.25
GF0.41
GA-0.55
PPG0.00
PPG0.45
PPG0.60
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate16.3%
Failed-to-score rate0.1%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate21.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.41
Goals Std0.60
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate10.1%
Scored 3+ rate6.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std1.86
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.55
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate16.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.87
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score2.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.81
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.41
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.31
Portability PPG Range0.49
Portability Score-14.26
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.17
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.06
Current Team ELO28.55
Current Opponent ELO-28.55
Current ELO Difference57.11
Expected score0.08
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.40

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ijsselmeervogels

W
Hoek0–3Ijsselmeervogels7 Nov · away
Pick: Hoek 52% · missed
W
Ijsselmeervogels2–1Spakenburg24 Oct · home
Pick: Ijsselmeervogels 42% · hit
W
Katwijk1–2Ijsselmeervogels17 Oct · away
Pick: Ijsselmeervogels 39% · hit
D
Ijsselmeervogels1–1RKAV Volendam29 Aug · home
Pick: Ijsselmeervogels 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Barendrecht

L
Barendrecht1–2Quick Boys7 Nov · home
Pick: Quick Boys 67% · hit
W
Kozakken Boys0–1Barendrecht24 Oct · away
Pick: Kozakken Boys 54% · missed
W
Barendrecht4–1AFC Amsterdam17 Oct · home
Pick: Barendrecht 42% · hit
L
Barendrecht0–2Katwijk29 Aug · home
Pick: Barendrecht 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ijsselmeervogels and Barendrecht meet in Tweede Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Sportpark De Westmaat, Spakenburg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Ijsselmeervogels win 55.1%, draw 21.0%, Barendrecht win 23.8%. The pick is Ijsselmeervogels win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.1%. Both teams to score: 62.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.