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Oberliga - Bayern Nord Germany Bayern Nord - 18 2026

Jahn Regensburg II vs Würzburger FV

Jahn Regensburg II Home · Elo 1,492
Full time
1–1
Half time 0–1
Sat 7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
Würzburger FV Away · Elo 1,511
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Pick published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: Draw
Jahn Regensburg II win
30.9%
Draw Result
21.8%
Würzburger FV winPick
47.3%

How our picks did

Settled automatically from the final score. Every miss stays on the record.

1 of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickWürzburger FV win · 47.3%
What happenedDraw · we gave it 21.8%
Missed
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 66.0%
What happenedUnder · 2 goals
Missed
Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 62.5%
What happenedYes · 1–1
Hit

How surprising was it?

Result: Draw. In our numbers it ranked third of the three.

22%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 4.6
on average
A pick at 47% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Both teams to score

Yes62.5%
No37.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.0%
Under 2.534.0%

How much we know

Jahn Regensburg II history52 matches
Würzburger FV history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full time: 1–1One of our three picks hit
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically from the final score.
    8 Nov · 03:17 UTC

Share this result

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.3%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Würzburger FV are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,492 against 1,511. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.73 goals a game over 52 matches for Jahn Regensburg II, against 1.60 over 53 for Würzburger FV.

  • Defences are close

    Jahn Regensburg II concede 1.75 a game, Würzburger FV 1.89.

  • Jahn Regensburg II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    73% of Jahn Regensburg II matches, against 57% for Würzburger FV. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jahn Regensburg II
Würzburger FV@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1492.4
ELO
1510.7
52
ELO · Matches
53
1492.4
Current Team ELO
1510.7
1510.7
Current Opponent ELO
1492.4
-18.24
Current ELO Difference
18.24
0.47
Expected score
0.53
52
History Matches
53
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.01
48.94
Overperformance
50.75
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.40
1.60
Goals for per game
2.40
2.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.90
Goals for per game
1.90
2.10
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
53
1.37
PPG
1.28
40.4%
Win rate
34.0%
15.4%
Draw rate
26.4%
44.2%
Loss rate
39.6%
88.5%
Over 1.5 rate
84.9%
73.1%
Over 2.5 rate
56.6%
44.2%
Over 3.5 rate
45.3%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.20
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
27
1.83
PPG
1.22
58.3%
Win rate
33.3%
8.3%
Draw rate
22.2%
33.3%
Loss rate
44.4%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
24
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.73
Goals for per game
1.60
80.8%
Scoring rate
83.0%
69.2%
BTTS rate
64.2%
1.83
Goals for per game
1.44
79.2%
Scoring rate
70.4%
62.5%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.71
Goals for per game
2.50
71.4%
Scoring rate
100.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
66.7%
52
History Matches
53
1.73
Goals Mean
1.60
1.43
Goals Std
1.29
80.8%
Scored 1+ rate
83.0%
46.2%
Scored 2+ rate
43.4%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
18.9%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
1.44
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.75
Goals against per game
1.89
86.5%
Conceding rate
81.1%
1.33
Goals against per game
2.00
83.3%
Conceding rate
85.2%
2.14
Goals against per game
1.33
85.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
52
History Matches
53
1.75
Conceded Mean
1.89
1.28
Conceded Std
1.63
48.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.2%
28.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.3%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
13.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
13.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
53
0.92
Result entropy
0.99
2.15
Goal Difference Std
2.20
7.61
Stability score
1.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
53
17
Lead Matches
16
70.6%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.71
17
Trailing Matches
17
17.6%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.85
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.09
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.92
Rest days
77.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
22
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
6
1.14
PPG
2.17
28.6%
Win rate
66.7%
28.6%
Draw rate
16.7%
42.9%
Loss rate
16.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
7
Current Competition Matches
6
1.14
Current Competition PPG
2.17
-0.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.17
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.44
0.68
Portability PPG Range
1.01
63.94
Portability Score
53.43
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-18.24
PPG0.08
GF0.13
GA-0.14
PPG-1.02
PPG0.61
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate2.2%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate2.8%
Scored 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.40
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std-0.35
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate0.9%
Conceded 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.21
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score6.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.02
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate8.1%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate11.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-1.02
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.60
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.34
Portability Score10.51
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.82
Current Team ELO-18.24
Current Opponent ELO18.24
Current ELO Difference-36.48
Expected score-0.05
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.80
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Jahn Regensburg II

W
Jahn Regensburg II5–0Viktoria Aschaffenburg31 Oct · home
Pick: Viktoria Aschaffenburg 39% · missed
L
Großbardorf4–3Jahn Regensburg II24 Oct · away
Pick: Jahn Regensburg II 41% · missed
W
Gebenbach1–6Jahn Regensburg II17 Oct · away
Pick: Gebenbach 64% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Würzburger FV

D
Gebenbach3–3Würzburger FV31 Oct · away
Pick: Gebenbach 45% · missed
W
Würzburger FV4–0Stadeln24 Oct · home
Pick: Würzburger FV 53% · hit
D
Fortuna Regensburg2–2Würzburger FV17 Oct · away
Pick: Würzburger FV 42% · missed
L
Würzburger FV2–3Cham29 Aug · home
Pick: Cham 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Match report

Jahn Regensburg II and Würzburger FV finished 1–1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Saturday 7 November 2026. It was 0–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC, before kickoff: Jahn Regensburg II win 30.9%, draw 21.8%, Würzburger FV win 47.3%. One of the three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.