Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor vs Fethiyespor
Match result probability Model pick: Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor winPick
57.2%
Draw
22.2%
Fethiyespor win
20.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.9%
No49.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.559.5%
Under 2.540.5%
How much we know
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor history58 matches
Fethiyespor history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 09:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 10:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.2%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor are rated 107 Elo points higher
Elo 1,608 against 1,501. On rating alone Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.
-
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor score far more
2.17 goals a game over 58 matches for Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor, against 1.18 over 56 for Fethiyespor.
-
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor concede fewer
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor concede 1.07 a game, Fethiyespor 1.23.
-
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor games more often go over 2.5 goals
62% of Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor matches, against 43% for Fethiyespor. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 5 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fethiyespor@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1608.3
ELO
1501.2
58
ELO · Matches
56
1608.3
Current Team ELO
1501.2
1501.2
Current Opponent ELO
1608.3
107.1
Current ELO Difference
-107.1
0.65
Expected score
0.35
58
History Matches
56
0.09
Residual Mean
0.01
56.83
Overperformance
50.40
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
1.20
Goals for per game
0.90
1.30
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals 90
58
Matches
56
1.93
PPG
1.21
58.6%
Win rate
30.4%
17.2%
Draw rate
30.4%
24.1%
Loss rate
39.3%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
62.1%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
37.9%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
2.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
Venue performance10 signals 100
29
Matches
27
2.62
PPG
1.07
82.8%
Win rate
29.6%
13.8%
Draw rate
18.5%
3.4%
Loss rate
51.9%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
55.2%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
37.9%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
29
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.17
Goals for per game
1.18
82.8%
Scoring rate
57.1%
46.6%
BTTS rate
37.5%
2.55
Goals for per game
1.00
89.7%
Scoring rate
48.1%
34.5%
BTTS rate
29.6%
58
History Matches
56
2.17
Goals Mean
1.18
1.72
Goals Std
1.59
82.8%
Scored 1+ rate
57.1%
60.3%
Scored 2+ rate
26.8%
36.2%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
2.55
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.07
Goals against per game
1.23
55.2%
Conceding rate
67.9%
0.55
Goals against per game
1.44
37.9%
Conceding rate
74.1%
58
History Matches
56
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.23
1.38
Conceded Std
1.18
29.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.1%
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.9%
0.55
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
62.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
51.9%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
62.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
51.9%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
58
History Matches
56
0.87
Result entropy
0.99
2.37
Goal Difference Std
2.25
12.68
Stability score
0.71
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
57
Eligible Matches
55
24
Lead Matches
14
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.90
12
Trailing Matches
15
33.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
1.02
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
1.14
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
193.9
Rest days
202.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
4
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
42
Normal Rest History Matches
40
2.02
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
15
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.27
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.28
0.25
Portability PPG Range
0.69
81.28
Portability Score
63.86
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
58
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO107.1
PPG0.72
GF0.99
GA-0.16
PPG1.55
PPG0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate12.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate36.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.42
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.99
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate25.6%
Scored 2+ rate33.6%
Scored 3+ rate23.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.55
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.50
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate12.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.54
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score11.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.46
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate6.0%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate13.3%
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.44
Portability Score17.42
Rest days-9.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.85
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO107.1
Current Opponent ELO-107.1
Current ELO Difference214.2
Expected score0.30
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
W
Ankaragücü1–3 Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor7 Nov · away
Pick: Ankaragücü 38% · missed W
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor2–1İnegölspor1 Nov · home
Pick: Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 60% · hit W
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik1–4 Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor27 Oct · away
Pick: Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 39% · hit L
Karacabey Belediyespor3–1 Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor24 Oct · away
Pick: Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 43% · missed W
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor4–1Serik Spor18 Oct · home
Pick: Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 64% · hit Fethiyespor
L
Fethiyespor2–4Eyüpspor4 Nov · home
Pick: Eyüpspor 37% · hit L
1461 Trabzon FK2–1Fethiyespor1 Nov · away
Pick: Fethiyespor 37% · missed D
Fethiyespor2–2Ankaragücü17 Oct · home
Pick: Ankaragücü 40% · missed W
Gaziemirspor0–2Fethiyespor7 Oct · away
Pick: Fethiyespor 37% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor and Fethiyespor meet in 2. Lig on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win 57.2%, draw 22.2%, Fethiyespor win 20.6%. The pick is Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.5%. Both teams to score: 50.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.