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Third League - Southeast Bulgaria Southeast - 15 2026

Levski Krumovgrad vs Maritsa Plovdiv

Levski Krumovgrad Home · Elo 1,467
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Maritsa Plovdiv Away · Elo 1,578
Nikola Shterev - Starika Sports Complex, Plovdiv Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Levski Krumovgrad win
Levski Krumovgrad winPick
43.3%
Draw
23.8%
Maritsa Plovdiv win
32.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.1%
No51.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.7%
Under 2.548.3%

How much we know

Levski Krumovgrad history23 matches
Maritsa Plovdiv history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.3%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Levski Krumovgrad are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Maritsa Plovdiv are rated 111 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,578 against 1,467. On rating alone Maritsa Plovdiv would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Maritsa Plovdiv score far more

    0.74 goals a game over 23 matches for Levski Krumovgrad, against 2.26 over 54 for Maritsa Plovdiv.

  • Maritsa Plovdiv concede fewer

    Levski Krumovgrad concede 1.35 a game, Maritsa Plovdiv 0.96.

  • Maritsa Plovdiv games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of Levski Krumovgrad matches, against 63% for Maritsa Plovdiv. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Levski Krumovgrad
Maritsa Plovdiv@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1466.8
ELO
1578.3
23
ELO · Matches
54
1466.8
Current Team ELO
1578.3
1578.3
Current Opponent ELO
1466.8
-111.4
Current ELO Difference
111.4
0.34
Expected score
0.66
23
History Matches
54
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.07
45.55
Overperformance
55.01
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.28
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.90
1.20
Goals for per game
1.50
1.80
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.58
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
23
Matches
54
1.09
PPG
2.06
30.4%
Win rate
63.0%
17.4%
Draw rate
16.7%
52.2%
Loss rate
20.4%
47.8%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
34.8%
Over 2.5 rate
63.0%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
37.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
10
Matches
27
1.10
PPG
1.67
30.0%
Win rate
48.1%
20.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
50.0%
Loss rate
29.6%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
30.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
10
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.74
Goals for per game
2.26
43.5%
Scoring rate
81.5%
26.1%
BTTS rate
46.3%
0.80
Goals for per game
1.48
50.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
30.0%
BTTS rate
55.6%
2.67
Goals for per game
0.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
23
History Matches
54
0.74
Goals Mean
2.26
1.11
Goals Std
1.95
43.5%
Scored 1+ rate
81.5%
13.0%
Scored 2+ rate
61.1%
13.0%
Scored 3+ rate
31.5%
0.80
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.35
Goals against per game
0.96
69.6%
Conceding rate
59.3%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.15
70.0%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
23
History Matches
54
1.35
Conceded Mean
0.96
1.27
Conceded Std
1.05
34.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.9%
21.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.4%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
1.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
56.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
56.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
23
History Matches
54
0.92
Result entropy
0.83
1.63
Goal Difference Std
2.50
8.46
Stability score
16.80
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
21
Eligible Matches
20
4
Lead Matches
5
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
10
Trailing Matches
4
10.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
21
Halftime Coverage Matches
20
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.90
Rest days
83.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
13
Normal Rest History Matches
33
0.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.18
7
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
0.33
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.33
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
1.14
Portability PPG Std
0.95
2.28
Portability PPG Range
2.23
30.51
Portability Score
34.47
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
23
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-111.4
PPG-0.97
GF-1.52
GA0.38
PPG2.67
PPG-0.57
PPG1.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-31
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate38.0%
History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate4.1%
Failed-to-score rate27.8%
History Matches-31
Goals Mean-1.52
Goals Std-0.84
Scored 1+ rate-0.38
Scored 2+ rate-0.48
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.11
History Matches-31
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std0.22
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate8.9%
Conceded 3+ rate14.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.32
History Matches-31
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.86
Stability score-8.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.32
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate10.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.05
Portability Score-3.96
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-20
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.34
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.59
Current Team ELO-111.4
Current Opponent ELO111.4
Current ELO Difference-222.9
Expected score-0.31
History Matches-31
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance-9.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Levski Krumovgrad

W
Levski Krumovgrad4–0Sayana Haskovo31 Oct · home
Pick: Levski Krumovgrad 41% · hit
W
Yambol 19152–3Levski Krumovgrad24 Oct · away
Pick: Yambol 1915 55% · missed
W
Levski Krumovgrad6–0Lokomotiv Plovdiv II21 Oct · home
Pick: Levski Krumovgrad 60% · hit
W
Levski Krumovgrad2–1Zagorets17 Oct · home
Pick: Levski Krumovgrad 50% · hit
W
Levski Krumovgrad4–2Neftochimic Burgas29 Aug · home
Pick: Levski Krumovgrad 51% · hit

Maritsa Plovdiv

L
Neftochimic Burgas3–0Maritsa Plovdiv4 Nov · away
Pick: Neftochimic Burgas 44% · hit
W
Sekirovo Rakovski0–3Maritsa Plovdiv31 Oct · away
Pick: Sekirovo Rakovski 46% · missed
W
Maritsa Plovdiv2–1Botev Plovdiv II24 Oct · home
Pick: Maritsa Plovdiv 60% · hit
L
Rozova dolina2–0Maritsa Plovdiv29 Aug · away
Pick: Rozova dolina 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Levski Krumovgrad and Maritsa Plovdiv meet in Third League - Southeast on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Nikola Shterev - Starika Sports Complex, Plovdiv. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Levski Krumovgrad win 43.3%, draw 23.8%, Maritsa Plovdiv win 32.8%. The pick is Levski Krumovgrad win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.7%. Both teams to score: 48.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.