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Third League - Southeast Bulgaria Southeast - 15 2026

Sekirovo Rakovski vs Rodopa Smolyan

Sekirovo Rakovski Home · Elo 1,425
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rodopa Smolyan Away · Elo 1,502
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rodopa Smolyan win
Sekirovo Rakovski win
32.4%
Draw
23.4%
Rodopa Smolyan winPick
44.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.2%
No48.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.4%
Under 2.544.6%

How much we know

Sekirovo Rakovski history53 matches
Rodopa Smolyan history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.2%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Rodopa Smolyan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rodopa Smolyan are rated 77 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,502 against 1,425. On rating alone Rodopa Smolyan would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Rodopa Smolyan score far more

    1.04 goals a game over 53 matches for Sekirovo Rakovski, against 1.63 over 51 for Rodopa Smolyan.

  • Defences are close

    Sekirovo Rakovski concede 1.55 a game, Rodopa Smolyan 1.59.

  • Rodopa Smolyan games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Sekirovo Rakovski matches, against 69% for Rodopa Smolyan. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sekirovo Rakovski
Rodopa Smolyan@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1424.7
ELO
1501.9
53
ELO · Matches
51
1424.7
Current Team ELO
1501.9
1501.9
Current Opponent ELO
1424.7
-77.26
Current ELO Difference
77.26
0.39
Expected score
0.61
53
History Matches
51
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.00
45.05
Overperformance
50.02
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
2.20
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
2.10
0.90
Goals for per game
2.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
10.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.23
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
51
1.06
PPG
1.43
28.3%
Win rate
41.2%
20.8%
Draw rate
19.6%
50.9%
Loss rate
39.2%
71.7%
Over 1.5 rate
84.3%
45.3%
Over 2.5 rate
68.6%
24.5%
Over 3.5 rate
43.1%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.20
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
26
1.48
PPG
1.23
40.7%
Win rate
34.6%
25.9%
Draw rate
19.2%
33.3%
Loss rate
46.2%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.5%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
73.1%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
27
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.04
Goals for per game
1.63
64.2%
Scoring rate
72.5%
45.3%
BTTS rate
54.9%
1.26
Goals for per game
1.35
70.4%
Scoring rate
69.2%
48.1%
BTTS rate
53.8%
1.33
Goals for per game
2.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
53
History Matches
51
1.04
Goals Mean
1.63
0.99
Goals Std
1.43
64.2%
Scored 1+ rate
72.5%
28.3%
Scored 2+ rate
49.0%
11.3%
Scored 3+ rate
25.5%
1.26
Venue Goals Mean
1.35
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.59
75.5%
Conceding rate
74.5%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.85
70.4%
Conceding rate
76.9%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
53
History Matches
51
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.59
1.35
Conceded Std
1.33
45.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
49.0%
18.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.5%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.85
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
35.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
35.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
51
0.93
Result entropy
0.96
1.70
Goal Difference Std
2.20
6.50
Stability score
4.25
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
19
Eligible Matches
17
2
Lead Matches
3
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.78
6
Trailing Matches
3
0.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
19
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
0.37
First Half Goals For Mean
0.35
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.12
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.90
Rest days
83.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
12
Long Rest History Matches
15
0.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.67
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
66.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.67
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.28
0.58
Portability PPG Range
0.69
67.66
Portability Score
63.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-77.26
PPG-0.37
GF-0.59
GA-0.04
PPG-1.33
PPG0.25
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate8.4%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate6.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.59
Goals Std-0.44
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.42
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.50
Stability score2.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.59
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate-0.33
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score3.90
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Current Team ELO-77.26
Current Opponent ELO77.26
Current ELO Difference-154.5
Expected score-0.22
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sekirovo Rakovski

L
Sekirovo Rakovski0–3Maritsa Plovdiv31 Oct · home
Pick: Sekirovo Rakovski 46% · missed
L
Rozova dolina4–3Sekirovo Rakovski24 Oct · away
Pick: Rozova dolina 54% · hit
L
Sekirovo Rakovski1–2Zagorets21 Oct · home
Pick: Sekirovo Rakovski 39% · missed
L
Sekirovo Rakovski2–3Sayana Haskovo17 Oct · home
Pick: Sayana Haskovo 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Rodopa Smolyan

D
Neftochimic Burgas0–0Rodopa Smolyan31 Oct · away
Pick: Neftochimic Burgas 38% · missed
W
Rodopa Smolyan1–0Atletik Kuklen24 Oct · home
Pick: Rodopa Smolyan 56% · hit
W
Rodopa Smolyan1–0Gigant Saedinenie21 Oct · home
Pick: Rodopa Smolyan 48% · hit
L
Dimitrovgrad5–1Rodopa Smolyan17 Oct · away
Pick: Rodopa Smolyan 41% · missed
D
Rodopa Smolyan1–1Nesebar4 Oct · home
Pick: Nesebar 46% · missed

About this match

Sekirovo Rakovski and Rodopa Smolyan meet in Third League - Southeast on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Sekirovo Rakovski win 32.4%, draw 23.4%, Rodopa Smolyan win 44.2%. The pick is Rodopa Smolyan win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.4%. Both teams to score: 51.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.