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Third League - Southeast Bulgaria Southeast - 15 2026

Maritsa Milevo vs Spartak Plovdiv

Maritsa Milevo Home · Elo 1,563
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Spartak Plovdiv Away · Elo 1,564
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Spartak Plovdiv win
Maritsa Milevo win
31.6%
Draw
26.4%
Spartak Plovdiv winPick
42.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%
No46.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.2%
Under 2.544.8%

How much we know

Maritsa Milevo history56 matches
Spartak Plovdiv history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.0%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Spartak Plovdiv are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,563 against 1,564. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Spartak Plovdiv score more

    1.48 goals a game over 56 matches for Maritsa Milevo, against 2.02 over 55 for Spartak Plovdiv.

  • Maritsa Milevo concede fewer

    Maritsa Milevo concede 0.96 a game, Spartak Plovdiv 1.36.

  • Spartak Plovdiv games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Maritsa Milevo matches, against 67% for Spartak Plovdiv. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Maritsa Milevo
Spartak Plovdiv@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1563.1
ELO
1563.6
56
ELO · Matches
55
1563.1
Current Team ELO
1563.6
1563.6
Current Opponent ELO
1563.1
-0.52
Current ELO Difference
0.52
0.50
Expected score
0.50
56
History Matches
55
0.05
Residual Mean
0.07
53.54
Overperformance
55.29
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.40
1.20
Goals for per game
3.20
0.60
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
2.10
2.10
Goals for per game
2.90
1.00
Goals against per game
2.70
60.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.90
1.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.70
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.19
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
55
1.66
PPG
1.75
46.4%
Win rate
52.7%
26.8%
Draw rate
16.4%
26.8%
Loss rate
30.9%
66.1%
Over 1.5 rate
74.5%
48.2%
Over 2.5 rate
67.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
47.3%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.27
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
23
2.04
PPG
1.43
57.7%
Win rate
43.5%
30.8%
Draw rate
13.0%
11.5%
Loss rate
43.5%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
65.2%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
43.5%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
26
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.48
Goals for per game
2.02
75.0%
Scoring rate
76.4%
44.6%
BTTS rate
56.4%
1.88
Goals for per game
1.74
80.8%
Scoring rate
78.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
65.2%
0.67
Goals for per game
3.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
55
1.48
Goals Mean
2.02
1.44
Goals Std
1.69
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
76.4%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
56.4%
17.9%
Scored 3+ rate
36.4%
1.88
Venue Goals Mean
1.74
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.96
Goals against per game
1.36
58.9%
Conceding rate
72.7%
0.65
Goals against per game
1.83
53.8%
Conceding rate
82.6%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.67
33.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
55
0.96
Conceded Mean
1.36
1.07
Conceded Std
1.39
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.4%
8.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
0.65
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
41.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
41.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
55
0.97
Result entropy
0.91
1.93
Goal Difference Std
2.27
3.34
Stability score
9.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
15
Eligible Matches
21
2
Lead Matches
5
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
2
Trailing Matches
3
50.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
15
Halftime Coverage Matches
21
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.38
0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.90
Rest days
83.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.50
32
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.66
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
18
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
3.00
66.7%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.61
0.38
Portability PPG Range
1.44
75.36
Portability Score
45.04
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-0.52
PPG-0.08
GF-0.54
GA-0.40
PPG-1.00
PPG0.60
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate13.8%
Failed-to-score rate1.4%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate28.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.54
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.79
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.40
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate13.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.30
History Matches1
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.34
Stability score-5.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.92
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.33
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-1.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.46
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.45
Portability PPG Range-1.06
Portability Score30.32
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.10
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Current Team ELO-0.52
Current Opponent ELO0.52
Current ELO Difference-1.05
Expected score0.00
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Maritsa Milevo

W
Maritsa Milevo2–0Rozova dolina31 Oct · home
Pick: Maritsa Milevo 43% · hit
D
Sayana Haskovo2–2Maritsa Milevo24 Oct · away
Pick: Sayana Haskovo 51% · missed
W
Maritsa Milevo2–1Yambol 191517 Oct · home
Pick: Yambol 1915 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Spartak Plovdiv

W
Atletik Kuklen0–3Spartak Plovdiv4 Nov · away
Pick: Spartak Plovdiv 59% · hit
L
Spartak Plovdiv0–1Neftochimic Burgas24 Oct · home
Pick: Spartak Plovdiv 62% · missed
W
Levski Karlovo1–3Spartak Plovdiv21 Oct · away
Pick: Spartak Plovdiv 48% · hit
L
Spartak Plovdiv1–2Arda Kardzhali18 Oct · home
Pick: Arda Kardzhali 58% · hit
W
Spartak Plovdiv1–0Botev Ihtiman4 Oct · home
Pick: Spartak Plovdiv 49% · hit

About this match

Maritsa Milevo and Spartak Plovdiv meet in Third League - Southeast on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Maritsa Milevo win 31.6%, draw 26.4%, Spartak Plovdiv win 42.0%. The pick is Spartak Plovdiv win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.2%. Both teams to score: 53.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.