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Third League - Southeast Bulgaria Southeast - 15 2026

Zagorets vs Yambol 1915

Zagorets Home · Elo 1,489
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Yambol 1915 Away · Elo 1,603
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Yambol 1915 win
Zagorets win
29.9%
Draw
25.0%
Yambol 1915 winPick
45.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.2%
No44.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.5%
Under 2.541.5%

How much we know

Zagorets history55 matches
Yambol 1915 history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Yambol 1915 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Yambol 1915 are rated 114 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,603 against 1,489. On rating alone Yambol 1915 would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Yambol 1915 score more

    1.36 goals a game over 55 matches for Zagorets, against 1.91 over 55 for Yambol 1915.

  • Yambol 1915 concede fewer

    Zagorets concede 1.45 a game, Yambol 1915 1.05.

  • Yambol 1915 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of Zagorets matches, against 58% for Yambol 1915. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zagorets
Yambol 1915@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1489.1
ELO
1603.4
55
ELO · Matches
55
1489.1
Current Team ELO
1603.4
1603.4
Current Opponent ELO
1489.1
-114.3
Current ELO Difference
114.3
0.34
Expected score
0.66
55
History Matches
55
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.09
48.58
Overperformance
56.86
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.80
2.80
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
2.00
1.70
Goals for per game
2.30
2.50
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
2.69
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
3.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.76
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
55
1.38
PPG
1.95
36.4%
Win rate
58.2%
29.1%
Draw rate
20.0%
34.5%
Loss rate
21.8%
76.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
49.1%
Over 2.5 rate
58.2%
32.7%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
27
1.72
PPG
1.59
48.0%
Win rate
44.4%
28.0%
Draw rate
25.9%
24.0%
Loss rate
29.6%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
36.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
25
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.91
76.4%
Scoring rate
87.3%
49.1%
BTTS rate
52.7%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.52
88.0%
Scoring rate
81.5%
52.0%
BTTS rate
51.9%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
55
History Matches
55
1.36
Goals Mean
1.91
1.07
Goals Std
1.39
76.4%
Scored 1+ rate
87.3%
43.6%
Scored 2+ rate
50.9%
12.7%
Scored 3+ rate
30.9%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.45
Goals against per game
1.05
60.0%
Conceding rate
56.4%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.15
56.0%
Conceding rate
59.3%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
55
History Matches
55
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.05
1.83
Conceded Std
1.26
34.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.3%
21.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
1.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
43.6%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
12.7%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
43.6%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
12.7%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
43.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
55
1.00
Result entropy
0.88
2.21
Goal Difference Std
1.99
0.40
Stability score
11.78
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
20
Eligible Matches
20
4
Lead Matches
7
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
1.00
3
Trailing Matches
2
0.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
20
Halftime Coverage Matches
20
0.35
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.30
0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.20
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.90
Rest days
83.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.06
15
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.30
0.61
Portability PPG Range
0.67
65.42
Portability Score
62.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-114.3
PPG-0.56
GF-0.55
GA0.40
PPG0.00
PPG0.13
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate10.9%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.55
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.40
Conceded Std0.57
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate7.3%
Conceded 3+ rate7.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.67
History Matches0
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score-11.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.49
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.50
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.06
Portability Score2.97
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.79
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Current Team ELO-114.3
Current Opponent ELO114.3
Current ELO Difference-228.6
Expected score-0.32
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-8.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Zagorets

L
Sozopol2–1Zagorets31 Oct · away
Pick: Sozopol 48% · hit
D
Zagorets1–1Lokomotiv Plovdiv II24 Oct · home
Pick: Zagorets 55% · missed
W
Sekirovo Rakovski1–2Zagorets21 Oct · away
Pick: Sekirovo Rakovski 39% · missed
L
Levski Krumovgrad2–1Zagorets17 Oct · away
Pick: Levski Krumovgrad 50% · hit
L
Zagorets0–4Rilski Sportist4 Oct · home
Pick: Rilski Sportist 41% · hit

Yambol 1915

L
Yambol 19152–3Levski Krumovgrad24 Oct · home
Pick: Yambol 1915 55% · missed
W
Botev Plovdiv II0–2Yambol 191521 Oct · away
Pick: Yambol 1915 59% · hit
L
Maritsa Milevo2–1Yambol 191517 Oct · away
Pick: Yambol 1915 40% · missed
L
Yambol 19150–5Hebar 19184 Oct · home
Pick: Hebar 1918 38% · hit
W
Yambol 19155–1Rodopa Smolyan29 Aug · home
Pick: Yambol 1915 49% · hit

About this match

Zagorets and Yambol 1915 meet in Third League - Southeast on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Zagorets win 29.9%, draw 25.0%, Yambol 1915 win 45.1%. The pick is Yambol 1915 win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.5%. Both teams to score: 55.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.