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Third League - Southeast Bulgaria Southeast - 15 2026

Sozopol vs Sayana Haskovo

Sozopol Home · Elo 1,514
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sayana Haskovo Away · Elo 1,469
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sozopol win
Sozopol winPick
43.3%
Draw
23.1%
Sayana Haskovo win
33.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.6%
No45.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.2%
Under 2.538.8%

How much we know

Sozopol history52 matches
Sayana Haskovo history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.3%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Sozopol are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sozopol are rated 44 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,514 against 1,469. On rating alone Sozopol would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Sozopol score more

    1.42 goals a game over 52 matches for Sozopol, against 1.18 over 38 for Sayana Haskovo.

  • Sozopol concede fewer

    Sozopol concede 1.19 a game, Sayana Haskovo 1.79.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Sozopol matches, against 61% for Sayana Haskovo. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sozopol
Sayana Haskovo@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1513.6
ELO
1469.2
52
ELO · Matches
38
1513.6
Current Team ELO
1469.2
1469.2
Current Opponent ELO
1513.6
44.49
Current ELO Difference
-44.49
0.56
Expected score
0.44
52
History Matches
38
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.04
50.71
Overperformance
47.41
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
2.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.10
2.00
Goals for per game
1.50
1.50
Goals against per game
1.80
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
38
1.44
PPG
1.18
42.3%
Win rate
34.2%
17.3%
Draw rate
15.8%
40.4%
Loss rate
50.0%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
81.6%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
60.5%
32.7%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
19
2.00
PPG
0.89
64.0%
Win rate
26.3%
8.0%
Draw rate
10.5%
28.0%
Loss rate
63.2%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
89.5%
64.0%
Over 2.5 rate
78.9%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
47.4%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
25
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.42
Goals for per game
1.18
67.3%
Scoring rate
71.1%
44.2%
BTTS rate
47.4%
1.96
Goals for per game
1.11
84.0%
Scoring rate
73.7%
52.0%
BTTS rate
52.6%
2.33
Goals for per game
2.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
52
History Matches
38
1.42
Goals Mean
1.18
1.39
Goals Std
1.07
67.3%
Scored 1+ rate
71.1%
38.5%
Scored 2+ rate
28.9%
23.1%
Scored 3+ rate
15.8%
1.96
Venue Goals Mean
1.11
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
1.79
63.5%
Conceding rate
73.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.32
64.0%
Conceding rate
78.9%
2.33
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
52
History Matches
38
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.79
1.14
Conceded Std
1.56
36.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
17.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.6%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
38
0.94
Result entropy
0.91
1.89
Goal Difference Std
2.23
5.91
Stability score
8.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
20
Eligible Matches
18
4
Lead Matches
5
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.87
2
Trailing Matches
5
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
20
Halftime Coverage Matches
18
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.11
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.90
Rest days
83.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
30
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
16
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
2.33
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.60
0.54
Portability PPG Range
1.33
69.23
Portability Score
45.47
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO44.49
PPG0.26
GF0.24
GA-0.60
PPG-1.33
PPG1.11
PPG-0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate10.2%
Failed-to-score rate3.7%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate14.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches14
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std0.32
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate9.5%
Scored 3+ rate7.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.85
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.35
History Matches14
Conceded Mean-0.60
Conceded Std-0.41
Clean-sheet rate10.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-1.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches14
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.34
Stability score-2.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.01
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate20.0%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.61
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.38
Portability PPG Range-0.79
Portability Score23.75
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.96
Current Team ELO44.49
Current Opponent ELO-44.49
Current ELO Difference88.98
Expected score0.13
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sozopol

W
Sozopol2–1Zagorets31 Oct · home
Pick: Sozopol 48% · hit
L
Gigant Saedinenie2–1Sozopol24 Oct · away
Pick: Gigant Saedinenie 42% · hit
W
Sozopol3–1Dimitrovgrad29 Aug · home
Pick: Sozopol 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sayana Haskovo

L
Levski Krumovgrad4–0Sayana Haskovo31 Oct · away
Pick: Levski Krumovgrad 41% · hit
D
Sayana Haskovo2–2Maritsa Milevo24 Oct · home
Pick: Sayana Haskovo 51% · missed
L
Neftochimic Burgas2–0Sayana Haskovo21 Oct · away
Pick: Sayana Haskovo 38% · missed
W
Sekirovo Rakovski2–3Sayana Haskovo17 Oct · away
Pick: Sayana Haskovo 44% · hit
L
Sayana Haskovo1–2Spartak Plovdiv29 Aug · home
Pick: Spartak Plovdiv 44% · hit

About this match

Sozopol and Sayana Haskovo meet in Third League - Southeast on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Sozopol win 43.3%, draw 23.1%, Sayana Haskovo win 33.6%. The pick is Sozopol win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.2%. Both teams to score: 54.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.