ScoreProb
Log in
Third League - Southeast Bulgaria Southeast - 15 2026

Neftochimic Burgas vs Dimitrovgrad

Neftochimic Burgas Home · Elo 1,550
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dimitrovgrad Away · Elo 1,422
efbet Arena, Burgas Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Neftochimic Burgas win
Neftochimic Burgas winPick
48.3%
Draw
29.1%
Dimitrovgrad win
22.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.8%
No47.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.2%
Under 2.544.8%

How much we know

Neftochimic Burgas history38 matches
Dimitrovgrad history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.3%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Neftochimic Burgas are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Neftochimic Burgas are rated 128 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,550 against 1,422. On rating alone Neftochimic Burgas would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.37 goals a game over 38 matches for Neftochimic Burgas, against 1.31 over 55 for Dimitrovgrad.

  • Neftochimic Burgas concede fewer

    Neftochimic Burgas concede 1.08 a game, Dimitrovgrad 1.84.

  • Dimitrovgrad games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Neftochimic Burgas matches, against 56% for Dimitrovgrad. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Neftochimic Burgas
Dimitrovgrad@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1549.7
ELO
1421.6
38
ELO · Matches
55
1549.7
Current Team ELO
1421.6
1421.6
Current Opponent ELO
1549.7
128.1
Current ELO Difference
-128.1
0.68
Expected score
0.32
38
History Matches
55
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.07
54.50
Overperformance
45.19
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.00
1.70
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.10
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.57
Overall performance9 signals
90
38
Matches
55
1.68
PPG
1.11
47.4%
Win rate
32.7%
26.3%
Draw rate
12.7%
26.3%
Loss rate
54.5%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
78.2%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
56.4%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
26
1.70
PPG
0.50
45.0%
Win rate
11.5%
35.0%
Draw rate
15.4%
20.0%
Loss rate
73.1%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
30.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
15.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
20
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
1.31
71.1%
Scoring rate
56.4%
44.7%
BTTS rate
43.6%
1.40
Goals for per game
0.77
75.0%
Scoring rate
46.2%
45.0%
BTTS rate
38.5%
1.33
Goals for per game
2.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
38
History Matches
55
1.37
Goals Mean
1.31
1.11
Goals Std
1.44
71.1%
Scored 1+ rate
56.4%
44.7%
Scored 2+ rate
41.8%
21.1%
Scored 3+ rate
21.8%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
0.77
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.08
Goals against per game
1.84
65.8%
Conceding rate
81.8%
0.80
Goals against per game
2.12
65.0%
Conceding rate
84.6%
1.33
Goals against per game
2.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
38
History Matches
55
1.08
Conceded Mean
1.84
1.06
Conceded Std
1.51
26.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.9%
13.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.3%
0.80
Venue Conceded Mean
2.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
43.6%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
53.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
43.6%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
53.8%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
38
History Matches
55
0.96
Result entropy
0.87
1.79
Goal Difference Std
2.14
3.83
Stability score
12.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
21
Eligible Matches
18
0
Lead Matches
2
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
6
Trailing Matches
5
33.3%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
21
Halftime Coverage Matches
18
0.10
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.11
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.90
Rest days
83.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
5
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.20
26
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.54
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.11
9
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.15
0.43
Portability PPG Range
0.32
69.86
Portability Score
77.06
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
38
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points Retention
ELO128.1
PPG0.58
GF0.06
GA-0.76
PPG0.33
PPG1.20
PPG0.20
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate16.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate19.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches-17
Goals Mean0.06
Goals Std-0.33
Scored 1+ rate14.7%
Scored 2+ rate2.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.01
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean-0.76
Conceded Std-0.45
Clean-sheet rate16.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.25
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-1.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches-17
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.35
Stability score-8.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.17
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-2
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate33.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.12
Portability Score-7.19
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.80
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.43
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.58
Current Team ELO128.1
Current Opponent ELO-128.1
Current ELO Difference256.2
Expected score0.35
History Matches-17
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance9.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Neftochimic Burgas

W
Neftochimic Burgas3–0Maritsa Plovdiv4 Nov · home
Pick: Neftochimic Burgas 44% · hit
D
Neftochimic Burgas0–0Rodopa Smolyan31 Oct · home
Pick: Neftochimic Burgas 38% · missed
W
Spartak Plovdiv0–1Neftochimic Burgas24 Oct · away
Pick: Spartak Plovdiv 62% · missed
W
Neftochimic Burgas2–0Sayana Haskovo21 Oct · home
Pick: Sayana Haskovo 38% · missed
L
Neftochimic Burgas0–4CSKA 194816 Oct · home
Pick: CSKA 1948 41% · hit

Dimitrovgrad

W
Dimitrovgrad4–1Gigant Saedinenie31 Oct · home
Pick: Gigant Saedinenie 40% · missed
W
Levski Karlovo0–3Dimitrovgrad24 Oct · away
Pick: Levski Karlovo 44% · missed
W
Dimitrovgrad5–1Rodopa Smolyan17 Oct · home
Pick: Rodopa Smolyan 41% · missed
L
Sozopol3–1Dimitrovgrad29 Aug · away
Pick: Sozopol 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Neftochimic Burgas and Dimitrovgrad meet in Third League - Southeast on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at efbet Arena, Burgas. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Neftochimic Burgas win 48.3%, draw 29.1%, Dimitrovgrad win 22.7%. The pick is Neftochimic Burgas win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.2%. Both teams to score: 52.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.