Nairn County vs Invergordon
Match result probability Model pick: Nairn County win
Nairn County winPick
60.5%
Draw
20.0%
Invergordon win
19.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.2%
No48.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.562.6%
Under 2.537.4%
How much we know
Nairn County history53 matches
Invergordon history9 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Nairn County
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.5%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.
Why Nairn County are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Invergordon are rated 30 Elo points higher
Elo 1,460 against 1,431. On rating alone Invergordon would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Nairn County score more
1.34 goals a game over 53 matches for Nairn County, against 0.89 over 9 for Invergordon.
-
Nairn County concede fewer
Nairn County concede 1.77 a game, Invergordon 2.67.
-
Invergordon games more often go over 2.5 goals
55% of Nairn County matches, against 78% for Invergordon. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Invergordon@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1430.6
ELO
1460.3
53
ELO · Matches
9
1430.6
Current Team ELO
1460.3
1460.3
Current Opponent ELO
1430.6
-29.75
Current ELO Difference
29.75
0.46
Expected score
0.54
53
History Matches
9
-0.07
Residual Mean
-0.21
45.23
Overperformance
43.42
-0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.21
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
2.80
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
9
0.60
PPG
0.78
1.00
Goals for per game
0.89
2.50
Goals against per game
2.67
10.0%
Win rate
22.2%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.89
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.99
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.67
1.91
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.83
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.77
2.46
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.22
Overall performance9 signals 90
53
Matches
9
1.11
PPG
0.78
32.1%
Win rate
22.2%
15.1%
Draw rate
11.1%
52.8%
Loss rate
66.7%
84.9%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
54.7%
Over 2.5 rate
77.8%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
2.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.22
Venue performance10 signals 100
26
Matches
4
1.31
PPG
1.00
38.5%
Win rate
25.0%
15.4%
Draw rate
25.0%
46.2%
Loss rate
50.0%
80.8%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
26
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.34
Goals for per game
0.89
66.0%
Scoring rate
55.6%
47.2%
BTTS rate
44.4%
1.35
Goals for per game
0.50
76.9%
Scoring rate
25.0%
46.2%
BTTS rate
25.0%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.00
85.7%
Scoring rate
57.1%
71.4%
BTTS rate
42.9%
53
History Matches
9
1.34
Goals Mean
0.89
1.40
Goals Std
0.99
66.0%
Scored 1+ rate
55.6%
35.8%
Scored 2+ rate
22.2%
17.0%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
1.35
Venue Goals Mean
0.50
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.77
Goals against per game
2.67
79.2%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.25
69.2%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.14
Goals against per game
1.71
85.7%
Conceding rate
71.4%
53
History Matches
9
1.77
Conceded Mean
2.67
1.59
Conceded Std
2.83
49.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.6%
24.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
53
History Matches
9
0.90
Result entropy
0.77
2.38
Goal Difference Std
3.22
10.14
Stability score
22.75
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
44
Eligible Matches
9
12
Lead Matches
2
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
1.00
21
Trailing Matches
5
23.8%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
9
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.91
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.67
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.88
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
31
Normal Rest History Matches
4
1.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.75
13
Long Rest History Matches
2
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
7
Matches
7
0.71
PPG
1.00
14.3%
Win rate
28.6%
28.6%
Draw rate
14.3%
57.1%
Loss rate
57.1%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
2.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.55
7
Current Competition Matches
7
0.71
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.71
5
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.45
Portability PPG Std
—
1.25
Portability PPG Range
—
52.53
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
53
Clean History Matches
9
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-29.75
PPG0.34
GF0.45
GA-0.89
PPG-0.29
PPG0.31
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.18
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches44
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.52
History Matches44
Goals Mean0.45
Goals Std0.41
Scored 1+ rate10.5%
Scored 2+ rate13.6%
Scored 3+ rate5.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.85
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.11
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches44
Conceded Mean-0.89
Conceded Std-1.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.92
History Matches44
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.85
Stability score-12.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.76
Eligible Matches35
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches16
Non-loss rate23.8%
Trailing Win Rate9.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches35
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.73
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.29
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Normal Rest History Matches27
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.88
Current Team ELO-29.75
Current Opponent ELO29.75
Current ELO Difference-59.50
Expected score-0.09
History Matches44
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance1.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Nairn County
L
Huntly4–0Nairn County31 Oct · away
Pick: Huntly 50% · hit D
Nairn County2–2Fraserburgh24 Oct · home
Pick: Fraserburgh 69% · missed W
Nairn County2–1Turriff United17 Oct · home
Pick: Turriff United 45% · missed W
Nairn County3–2Strathspey Thistle7 Oct · home
Pick: Nairn County 44% · hit D
Nairn County0–0Deveronvale29 Aug · home
Pick: Nairn County 53% · missed Invergordon
L
Invergordon2–4Forres Mechanics31 Oct · home
Pick: Forres Mechanics 56% · hit L
Keith6–4Invergordon17 Oct · away
Pick: Keith 60% · hit L
Inverurie Loco Works1–0Invergordon7 Oct · away
Pick: Inverurie Loco Works 76% · hit L
Banks O' Dee6–3Invergordon29 Aug · away
Pick: Banks O' Dee 69% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Nairn County and Invergordon meet in Football League - Highland League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Nairn County win 60.5%, draw 20.0%, Invergordon win 19.5%. The pick is Nairn County win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.6%. Both teams to score: 51.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.