ScoreProb
Log in
Prva Liga Serbia Round 18 2026

OFK Bor 1919 vs Semendrija 1924

OFK Bor 1919 Home · Elo 1,581
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Semendrija 1924 Away · Elo 1,554
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Semendrija 1924 win
OFK Bor 1919 win
23.8%
Draw
22.4%
Semendrija 1924 winPick
53.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.5%
No48.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.6%
Under 2.543.4%

How much we know

OFK Bor 1919 history24 matches
Semendrija 1924 history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.9%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Semendrija 1924 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • OFK Bor 1919 are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,581 against 1,554. On rating alone OFK Bor 1919 would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • OFK Bor 1919 score far more

    3.38 goals a game over 24 matches for OFK Bor 1919, against 1.31 over 65 for Semendrija 1924.

  • Defences are close

    OFK Bor 1919 concede 1.00 a game, Semendrija 1924 1.02.

  • OFK Bor 1919 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    67% of OFK Bor 1919 matches, against 42% for Semendrija 1924. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
OFK Bor 1919
Semendrija 1924@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1580.6
ELO
1554.3
24
ELO · Matches
65
1580.6
Current Team ELO
1554.3
1554.3
Current Opponent ELO
1580.6
26.37
Current ELO Difference
-26.37
0.54
Expected score
0.46
24
History Matches
65
0.16
Residual Mean
0.05
58.97
Overperformance
53.55
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.34
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
2.20
0.60
Goals for per game
2.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.40
2.00
Goals for per game
2.30
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.63
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.46
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
24
Matches
65
2.25
PPG
1.48
70.8%
Win rate
40.0%
12.5%
Draw rate
27.7%
16.7%
Loss rate
32.3%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
61.5%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
41.5%
54.2%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
4.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
12
Matches
31
2.42
PPG
1.23
75.0%
Win rate
32.3%
16.7%
Draw rate
25.8%
8.3%
Loss rate
41.9%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
58.1%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
48.4%
58.3%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
4.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
12
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
3.38
Goals for per game
1.31
83.3%
Scoring rate
60.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
4.33
Goals for per game
1.03
91.7%
Scoring rate
58.1%
58.3%
BTTS rate
41.9%
0.60
Goals for per game
2.00
40.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
24
History Matches
65
3.38
Goals Mean
1.31
3.75
Goals Std
1.45
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
66.7%
Scored 2+ rate
36.9%
45.8%
Scored 3+ rate
18.5%
4.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.02
62.5%
Conceding rate
63.1%
0.92
Goals against per game
1.19
66.7%
Conceding rate
67.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
24
History Matches
65
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.08
Conceded Std
1.00
20.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.7%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.2%
0.92
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.9%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
41.9%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.9%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
41.9%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
24
History Matches
65
0.73
Result entropy
0.99
4.06
Goal Difference Std
1.71
26.92
Stability score
1.05
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
23
Eligible Matches
65
12
Lead Matches
18
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
94.4%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.96
3
Trailing Matches
17
0.0%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
23
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
1.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
1.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.08
Rest days
82.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
10
Normal Rest History Matches
47
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
13
Long Rest History Matches
17
2.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.82
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
2.20
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.10
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.40
Current Competition PPG
2.20
-1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
2
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
1.17
Portability PPG Std
0.40
2.34
Portability PPG Range
1.02
29.97
Portability Score
55.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
24
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO26.37
PPG0.77
GF2.07
GA-0.02
PPG-1.80
PPG1.19
PPG-1.80
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-41
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.34
History Matches-41
Goals Mean2.07
Goals Std2.31
Scored 1+ rate23.3%
Scored 2+ rate29.7%
Scored 3+ rate27.4%
Venue Goals Mean3.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.34
History Matches-41
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.57
History Matches-41
Result entropy-0.26
Goal Difference Std2.35
Stability score25.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.19
Eligible Matches-42
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate5.6%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-14
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-42
First Half Goals For Mean0.97
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean1.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.40
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.77
Portability PPG Range1.31
Portability Score-25.45
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-37
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.95
Current Team ELO26.37
Current Opponent ELO-26.37
Current ELO Difference52.73
Expected score0.08
History Matches-41
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance5.42
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.45

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

OFK Bor 1919

L
OFK Bor 19190–1FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV2 Nov · home
Pick: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 63% · hit
L
OFK Bor 19190–2Jedinstvo Ub24 Oct · home
Pick: Jedinstvo Ub 45% · hit
W
OFK Bor 19192–1Naftagas30 Aug · home
Pick: Naftagas 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Semendrija 1924

L
Semendrija 19241–5Grafičar7 Nov · home
Pick: Semendrija 1924 50% · missed
L
Borac Cacak2–0Semendrija 19241 Nov · away
Pick: Borac Cacak 37% · hit
L
Semendrija 19242–3TSC Backa Topola28 Oct · home
Pick: TSC Backa Topola 39% · hit
L
Dubočica1–0Semendrija 192423 Oct · away
Pick: Semendrija 1924 44% · missed
D
Semendrija 19241–1Naftagas17 Oct · home
Pick: Semendrija 1924 56% · missed

About this match

OFK Bor 1919 and Semendrija 1924 meet in Prva Liga on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: OFK Bor 1919 win 23.8%, draw 22.4%, Semendrija 1924 win 53.9%. The pick is Semendrija 1924 win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.6%. Both teams to score: 51.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.