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4. liga - Divizie B Czechia Group B - 15 2026

Ostrov vs Ústí nad Labem II

Ostrov Home · Elo 1,528
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ústí nad Labem II Away · Elo 1,415
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ostrov win
Ostrov winPick
47.5%
Draw
27.5%
Ústí nad Labem II win
25.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.9%
No43.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.4%
Under 2.532.6%

How much we know

Ostrov history49 matches
Ústí nad Labem II history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Ostrov are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ostrov are rated 113 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,528 against 1,415. On rating alone Ostrov would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.55 goals a game over 49 matches for Ostrov, against 1.62 over 53 for Ústí nad Labem II.

  • Ostrov concede fewer

    Ostrov concede 1.47 a game, Ústí nad Labem II 2.11.

  • Ústí nad Labem II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Ostrov matches, against 72% for Ústí nad Labem II. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ostrov
Ústí nad Labem II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1527.9
ELO
1415.2
49
ELO · Matches
53
1527.9
Current Team ELO
1415.2
1415.2
Current Opponent ELO
1527.9
112.7
Current ELO Difference
-112.7
0.66
Expected score
0.34
49
History Matches
53
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.09
51.54
Overperformance
43.61
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.20
1.40
Goals for per game
0.20
3.20
Goals against per game
3.60
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.50
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
3.00
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.48
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.00
1.99
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.00
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
53
1.59
PPG
1.06
46.9%
Win rate
28.3%
18.4%
Draw rate
20.8%
34.7%
Loss rate
50.9%
87.8%
Over 1.5 rate
84.9%
55.1%
Over 2.5 rate
71.7%
30.6%
Over 3.5 rate
54.7%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
29
1.87
PPG
0.90
56.5%
Win rate
24.1%
17.4%
Draw rate
17.2%
26.1%
Loss rate
58.6%
82.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
72.4%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
55.2%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.91
23
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.55
Goals for per game
1.62
83.7%
Scoring rate
67.9%
55.1%
BTTS rate
58.5%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.34
87.0%
Scoring rate
51.7%
47.8%
BTTS rate
37.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.33
50.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
49
History Matches
53
1.55
Goals Mean
1.62
1.07
Goals Std
1.67
83.7%
Scored 1+ rate
67.9%
49.0%
Scored 2+ rate
41.5%
16.3%
Scored 3+ rate
26.4%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
1.34
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.47
Goals against per game
2.11
67.3%
Conceding rate
84.9%
1.09
Goals against per game
2.21
56.5%
Conceding rate
79.3%
4.50
Goals against per game
4.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
49
History Matches
53
1.47
Conceded Mean
2.11
1.54
Conceded Std
1.57
38.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
58.5%
22.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
35.8%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
2.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.1%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.1%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.3%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
53
0.94
Result entropy
0.93
2.08
Goal Difference Std
2.58
5.92
Stability score
6.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
52
15
Lead Matches
10
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
1.00
16
Trailing Matches
22
25.0%
Non-loss rate
13.6%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.08
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
89.92
Rest days
84.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
23
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.78
25
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
0.33
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
100.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.62
2
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.33
-3.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.67
6
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.56
0.58
Portability PPG Range
1.31
63.44
Portability Score
47.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO112.7
PPG0.54
GF-0.07
GA-0.64
PPG-0.33
PPG0.97
PPG0.40
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate17.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate22.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.35
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std-0.60
Scored 1+ rate15.7%
Scored 2+ rate7.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.68
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.64
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate17.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.01
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.50
Stability score-0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.48
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate11.4%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.17
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.73
Portability Score16.23
Rest days5.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.91
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO112.7
Current Opponent ELO-112.7
Current ELO Difference225.4
Expected score0.31
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance7.94
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ostrov

W
Ostrov3–0Hvězda Cheb31 Oct · home
Pick: Ostrov 60% · hit
L
Slaný4–0Ostrov24 Oct · away
Pick: Slaný 59% · hit
L
Ostrov1–4Štětí17 Oct · home
Pick: Štětí 40% · hit
L
Újezd Praha 43–2Ostrov29 Aug · away
Pick: Újezd Praha 4 60% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ústí nad Labem II

W
Ústí nad Labem II2–1Rapid Psáry7 Nov · home
Pick: Rapid Psáry 51% · missed
L
Karlovy Vary4–0Ústí nad Labem II31 Oct · away
Pick: Karlovy Vary 76% · hit
W
Ústí nad Labem II4–1Slavoj Vyšehrad24 Oct · home
Pick: Ústí nad Labem II 54% · hit
L
Hvězda Cheb6–0Ústí nad Labem II17 Oct · away
Pick: Hvězda Cheb 52% · hit
L
Ústí nad Labem II0–4Sokol Hostouň29 Aug · home
Pick: Sokol Hostouň 69% · hit

About this match

Ostrov and Ústí nad Labem II meet in 4. liga - Divizie B on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Ostrov win 47.5%, draw 27.5%, Ústí nad Labem II win 25.1%. The pick is Ostrov win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.4%. Both teams to score: 56.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.