Újezd Praha 4 vs Štětí
Match result probability Model pick: Újezd Praha 4 win
Újezd Praha 4 winPick
52.0%
Draw
22.5%
Štětí win
25.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes67.2%
No32.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.577.5%
Under 2.522.5%
How much we know
Újezd Praha 4 history47 matches
Štětí history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Újezd Praha 4
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 08:15 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 09:15 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.0%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Újezd Praha 4 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Újezd Praha 4 are rated 140 Elo points higher
Elo 1,575 against 1,435. On rating alone Újezd Praha 4 would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.
-
Újezd Praha 4 score more
2.32 goals a game over 47 matches for Újezd Praha 4, against 1.60 over 53 for Štětí.
-
Újezd Praha 4 concede fewer
Újezd Praha 4 concede 1.55 a game, Štětí 2.02.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
74% of Újezd Praha 4 matches, against 75% for Štětí. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Štětí@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1575.0
ELO
1434.8
47
ELO · Matches
53
1575.0
Current Team ELO
1434.8
1434.8
Current Opponent ELO
1575.0
140.2
Current ELO Difference
-140.2
0.69
Expected score
0.31
47
History Matches
53
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.06
55.53
Overperformance
46.00
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
2.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.50
2.00
Goals for per game
2.20
1.50
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.26
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.66
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.89
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.03
Overall performance9 signals 90
47
Matches
53
1.85
PPG
1.17
55.3%
Win rate
34.0%
19.1%
Draw rate
15.1%
25.5%
Loss rate
50.9%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
86.8%
74.5%
Over 2.5 rate
75.5%
55.3%
Over 3.5 rate
49.1%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.41
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
25
2.46
PPG
0.92
79.2%
Win rate
28.0%
8.3%
Draw rate
8.0%
12.5%
Loss rate
64.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
96.0%
79.2%
Over 2.5 rate
92.0%
58.3%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.40
24
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.32
Goals for per game
1.60
91.5%
Scoring rate
77.4%
80.9%
BTTS rate
62.3%
2.92
Goals for per game
1.64
95.8%
Scoring rate
80.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
64.0%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
47
History Matches
53
2.32
Goals Mean
1.60
1.65
Goals Std
1.36
91.5%
Scored 1+ rate
77.4%
63.8%
Scored 2+ rate
45.3%
36.2%
Scored 3+ rate
22.6%
2.92
Venue Goals Mean
1.64
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.55
Goals against per game
2.02
87.2%
Conceding rate
81.1%
1.04
Goals against per game
2.28
79.2%
Conceding rate
80.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
47
History Matches
53
1.55
Conceded Mean
2.02
1.18
Conceded Std
1.63
34.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.6%
23.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
35.8%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
2.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
12.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
8.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
4.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
12.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
8.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
4.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
12.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
47
History Matches
53
0.90
Result entropy
0.91
2.18
Goal Difference Std
2.41
9.65
Stability score
9.36
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
47
Eligible Matches
51
22
Lead Matches
16
86.4%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.75
9
Trailing Matches
16
11.1%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.8%
Goal timing5 signals 50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
1.28
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.72
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
27
Normal Rest History Matches
30
2.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
18
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.24
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
3
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.18
0.73
Portability PPG Range
0.50
61.43
Portability Score
73.21
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
47
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO140.2
PPG0.68
GF0.72
GA-0.47
PPG0.33
PPG1.54
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.72
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate14.1%
Scored 2+ rate18.5%
Scored 3+ rate13.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.40
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.47
Conceded Std-0.45
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-1.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.77
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score0.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.07
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate17.6%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.19
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.44
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.23
Portability Score-11.77
Rest days-0.32
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.19
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.10
Current Team ELO140.2
Current Opponent ELO-140.2
Current ELO Difference280.4
Expected score0.38
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance9.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Újezd Praha 4
L
Újezd Praha 41–2Chomutov31 Oct · home
Pick: Chomutov 45% · hit W
Baník Sokolov2–3Újezd Praha 424 Oct · away
Pick: Baník Sokolov 55% · missed D
Újezd Praha 42–2Rapid Psáry17 Oct · home
Pick: Újezd Praha 4 53% · missed W
Újezd Praha 43–2Ostrov29 Aug · home
Pick: Újezd Praha 4 60% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Štětí
L
Štětí0–4Brandýs nad Labem7 Nov · home
Pick: Brandýs nad Labem 41% · hit L
Sokol Hostouň5–1Štětí1 Nov · away
Pick: Sokol Hostouň 66% · hit W
Štětí1–0Tempo Praha24 Oct · home
Pick: Tempo Praha 46% · missed W
Ostrov1–4Štětí17 Oct · away
Pick: Štětí 40% · hit L
Baník Sokolov3–1Štětí30 Aug · away
Pick: Baník Sokolov 59% · hit About this match
Újezd Praha 4 and Štětí meet in 4. liga - Divizie B on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 09:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Újezd Praha 4 win 52.0%, draw 22.5%, Štětí win 25.5%. The pick is Újezd Praha 4 win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.5%. Both teams to score: 67.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.