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4. liga - Divizie B Czechia Group B - 15 2026

Sokol Hostouň vs Hvězda Cheb

Sokol Hostouň Home · Elo 1,508
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hvězda Cheb Away · Elo 1,477
Stadion Vojtecha Zeithamla, Hostoun - KD Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sokol Hostouň win
Sokol Hostouň winPick
83.3%
Draw
8.7%
Hvězda Cheb win
8.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.9%
No44.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.579.3%
Under 2.520.7%

How much we know

Sokol Hostouň history63 matches
Hvězda Cheb history4 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (83.3%). Picks in that band won 83.1% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 177 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Sokol Hostouň are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sokol Hostouň are rated 31 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,508 against 1,477. On rating alone Sokol Hostouň would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Hvězda Cheb score more

    1.24 goals a game over 63 matches for Sokol Hostouň, against 1.75 over 4 for Hvězda Cheb.

  • Sokol Hostouň concede fewer

    Sokol Hostouň concede 1.38 a game, Hvězda Cheb 3.50.

  • Hvězda Cheb games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Sokol Hostouň matches, against 100% for Hvězda Cheb. The model puts this match at 79% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sokol Hostouň
Hvězda Cheb@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1507.9
ELO
1477.2
63
ELO · Matches
4
1507.9
Current Team ELO
1477.2
1477.2
Current Opponent ELO
1507.9
30.64
Current ELO Difference
-30.64
0.54
Expected score
0.46
63
History Matches
4
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.24
50.14
Overperformance
46.04
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
4
1.80
PPG
0.75
2.40
Goals for per game
1.75
1.60
Goals against per game
3.50
60.0%
Win rate
25.0%
10
Matches
4
1.80
PPG
0.75
1.90
Goals for per game
1.75
1.40
Goals against per game
3.50
60.0%
Win rate
25.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.75
1.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.79
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.50
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.50
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.51
2.46
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
4
1.27
PPG
0.75
33.3%
Win rate
25.0%
27.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
39.7%
Loss rate
75.0%
74.6%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
54.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
30.2%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
1
1.40
PPG
0.00
36.7%
Win rate
0.0%
30.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
30
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.24
Goals for per game
1.75
63.5%
Scoring rate
50.0%
46.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.37
Goals for per game
0.00
63.3%
Scoring rate
0.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
3.33
Goals for per game
2.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
63
History Matches
4
1.24
Goals Mean
1.75
1.29
Goals Std
1.79
63.5%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
38.1%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
12.7%
Scored 3+ rate
50.0%
1.37
Venue Goals Mean
0.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
3.50
69.8%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.23
Goals against per game
4.00
60.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
3.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
63
History Matches
4
1.38
Conceded Mean
3.50
1.16
Conceded Std
0.50
46.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
19.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
100.0%
1.23
Venue Conceded Mean
4.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
36.5%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
36.5%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
4
0.99
Result entropy
0.51
1.85
Goal Difference Std
1.92
1.11
Stability score
48.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
4
18
Lead Matches
0
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.85
Lead Points Retention
—
16
Trailing Matches
3
18.8%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
4
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.75
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.25
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.20
Rest days
84.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
38
Normal Rest History Matches
3
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
23
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
1.00
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
7
Competition Season Count
2
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.34
Portability PPG Std
—
0.94
Portability PPG Range
—
59.69
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
4
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO30.64
PPG0.52
GF-0.51
GA-2.12
PPG1.00
PPG1.40
PPG1.05
PPG1.05
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches59
Clean-sheet rate30.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches29
Clean-sheet rate40.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.63
History Matches59
Goals Mean-0.51
Goals Std-0.49
Scored 1+ rate13.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.37
Venue Goals Mean1.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.15
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches59
Conceded Mean-2.12
Conceded Std0.66
Clean-sheet rate30.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.54
Conceded 3+ rate-0.81
Venue Conceded Mean-2.77
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.78
History Matches59
Result entropy0.48
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score-47.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.54
Eligible Matches59
Lead Matches18
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate18.8%
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches59
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.24
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.88
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.33
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days-0.68
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches35
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.08
Long Rest History Matches23
Current Team ELO30.64
Current Opponent ELO-30.64
Current ELO Difference61.27
Expected score0.09
History Matches59
Residual Mean0.24
Overperformance4.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.42

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sokol Hostouň

W
Slaný1–2Sokol Hostouň7 Nov · away
Pick: Slaný 45% · missed
W
Sokol Hostouň5–1Štětí1 Nov · home
Pick: Sokol Hostouň 66% · hit
W
Meteor Praha2–4Sokol Hostouň25 Oct · away
Pick: Sokol Hostouň 51% · hit
L
Sokol Hostouň1–3Chomutov18 Oct · home
Pick: Sokol Hostouň 41% · missed
D
Sokol Hostouň1–1Rapid Psáry4 Oct · home
Pick: Sokol Hostouň 66% · missed

Hvězda Cheb

L
Hvězda Cheb0–3Tempo Praha7 Nov · home
Pick: Tempo Praha 57% · hit
L
Ostrov3–0Hvězda Cheb31 Oct · away
Pick: Ostrov 60% · hit
L
Hvězda Cheb1–2Karlovy Vary23 Oct · home
Pick: Karlovy Vary 69% · hit
W
Hvězda Cheb6–0Ústí nad Labem II17 Oct · home
Pick: Hvězda Cheb 52% · hit
W
Slavoj Vyšehrad1–2Hvězda Cheb29 Aug · away
Pick: Slavoj Vyšehrad 48% · missed

About this match

Sokol Hostouň and Hvězda Cheb meet in 4. liga - Divizie B on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Vojtecha Zeithamla, Hostoun - KD. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Sokol Hostouň win 83.3%, draw 8.7%, Hvězda Cheb win 8.0%. The pick is Sokol Hostouň win. Over 2.5 goals: 79.3%. Both teams to score: 55.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.