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League Two England Round 15 2026

Salford City vs Northampton

Salford City Home · Elo 1,569
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Northampton Away · Elo 1,398
Peninsula Stadium, Salford Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Salford City win
Salford City winPick
40.1%
Draw
25.5%
Northampton win
34.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%
No46.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.5%
Under 2.549.5%

How much we know

Salford City history89 matches
Northampton history88 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Salford City are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Salford City are rated 171 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,569 against 1,398. On rating alone Salford City would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Salford City score more

    1.54 goals a game over 89 matches for Salford City, against 1.02 over 88 for Northampton.

  • Defences are close

    Salford City concede 1.30 a game, Northampton 1.44.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Salford City matches, against 50% for Northampton. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Salford City
Northampton@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1568.8
ELO
1397.9
89
ELO · Matches
88
1568.8
Current Team ELO
1397.9
1397.9
Current Opponent ELO
1568.8
170.9
Current ELO Difference
-170.9
0.73
Expected score
0.27
89
History Matches
88
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.06
53.42
Overperformance
45.47
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.90
1.60
Goals for per game
0.90
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.45
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.63
Overall performance9 signals
90
89
Matches
88
1.65
PPG
1.03
47.2%
Win rate
27.3%
23.6%
Draw rate
21.6%
29.2%
Loss rate
51.1%
75.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.6%
52.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
36.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.9%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
47
Matches
44
1.66
PPG
0.86
44.7%
Win rate
22.7%
31.9%
Draw rate
18.2%
23.4%
Loss rate
59.1%
74.5%
Over 1.5 rate
70.5%
51.1%
Over 2.5 rate
56.8%
38.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
47
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.54
Goals for per game
1.02
77.5%
Scoring rate
60.2%
58.4%
BTTS rate
47.7%
1.60
Goals for per game
0.91
80.9%
Scoring rate
59.1%
61.7%
BTTS rate
47.7%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
89
History Matches
88
1.54
Goals Mean
1.02
1.20
Goals Std
1.12
77.5%
Scored 1+ rate
60.2%
46.1%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
23.6%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.60
Venue Goals Mean
0.91
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.44
74.2%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.34
Goals against per game
1.68
70.2%
Conceding rate
77.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
89
History Matches
88
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.44
1.16
Conceded Std
1.20
38.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.3%
12.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.2%
1.34
Venue Conceded Mean
1.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
39.8%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
19.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
39.8%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
19.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
89
History Matches
88
0.96
Result entropy
0.94
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.71
4.00
Stability score
6.40
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
89
Eligible Matches
87
29
Lead Matches
20
82.8%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.68
22
Trailing Matches
31
22.7%
Non-loss rate
6.5%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
6.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
89
Halftime Coverage Matches
87
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.15
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.71
68
Normal Rest History Matches
64
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.09
15
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
9
Competition Season Count
10
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.63
1.15
Portability PPG Range
1.81
57.09
Portability Score
44.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
89
Clean History Matches
88
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO170.9
PPG0.62
GF0.52
GA-0.14
PPG-0.50
PPG0.80
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.52
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate17.3%
Scored 2+ rate21.1%
Scored 3+ rate11.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.25
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.28
History Matches1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score-2.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.10
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate22.8%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate16.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.26
Portability PPG Range-0.66
Portability Score12.89
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.69
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.52
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.93
Current Team ELO170.9
Current Opponent ELO-170.9
Current ELO Difference341.8
Expected score0.46
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Salford City

L
Carlisle1–0Salford City7 Nov · away
Pick: Salford City 39% · missed
W
Salford City2–1Exeter City31 Oct · home
Pick: Salford City 39% · hit
W
Walsall2–4Salford City26 Oct · away
Pick: Walsall 49% · missed
W
Bristol Rovers1–2Salford City20 Oct · away
Pick: Bristol Rovers 49% · missed
W
Salford City2–1Crawley Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Salford City 44% · hit

Northampton

L
York4–0Northampton7 Nov · away
Pick: Northampton 43% · missed
L
Northampton0–1Oldham3 Nov · home
Pick: Oldham 39% · hit
D
Accrington ST1–1Northampton31 Oct · away
Pick: Accrington ST 41% · missed
W
Northampton2–0Colchester24 Oct · home
Pick: Northampton 40% · hit
L
Northampton0–1Tranmere20 Oct · home
Pick: Tranmere 39% · hit

About this match

Salford City and Northampton meet in League Two on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Peninsula Stadium, Salford. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Salford City win 40.1%, draw 25.5%, Northampton win 34.4%. The pick is Salford City win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.5%. Both teams to score: 53.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.