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Serie B Brazil Round 38 2026

São Bernardo vs Athletic Club

São Bernardo Home · Elo 1,501
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Athletic Club Away · Elo 1,522
Estadio Primeiro de Maio, Sao Bernardo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: São Bernardo win
São Bernardo winPick
35.9%
Draw
33.6%
Athletic Club win
30.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.7%
No50.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.2%
Under 2.556.8%

How much we know

São Bernardo history55 matches
Athletic Club history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.9%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why São Bernardo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,501 against 1,522. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.15 goals a game over 55 matches for São Bernardo, against 1.08 over 61 for Athletic Club.

  • São Bernardo concede fewer

    São Bernardo concede 1.04 a game, Athletic Club 1.16.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    33% of São Bernardo matches, against 38% for Athletic Club. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
São Bernardo
Athletic Club@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.6
ELO
1521.5
55
ELO · Matches
61
1500.6
Current Team ELO
1521.5
1521.5
Current Opponent ELO
1500.6
-20.99
Current ELO Difference
20.99
0.47
Expected score
0.53
55
History Matches
61
0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
50.66
Overperformance
51.31
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.50
1.30
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
0.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
61
1.36
PPG
1.28
34.5%
Win rate
31.1%
32.7%
Draw rate
34.4%
32.7%
Loss rate
34.4%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
72.1%
32.7%
Over 2.5 rate
37.7%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
16.4%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
31
1.23
PPG
1.26
30.0%
Win rate
29.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
38.7%
36.7%
Loss rate
32.3%
63.3%
Over 1.5 rate
67.7%
30.0%
Over 2.5 rate
32.3%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.1%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
30
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.15
Goals for per game
1.08
74.5%
Scoring rate
65.6%
49.1%
BTTS rate
52.5%
1.10
Goals for per game
1.06
70.0%
Scoring rate
61.3%
43.3%
BTTS rate
51.6%
1.35
Goals for per game
1.00
78.3%
Scoring rate
70.0%
60.9%
BTTS rate
55.0%
55
History Matches
61
1.15
Goals Mean
1.08
1.00
Goals Std
1.03
74.5%
Scored 1+ rate
65.6%
23.6%
Scored 2+ rate
31.1%
14.5%
Scored 3+ rate
8.2%
1.10
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.04
Goals against per game
1.16
70.9%
Conceding rate
77.0%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.06
70.0%
Conceding rate
74.2%
1.13
Goals against per game
0.90
78.3%
Conceding rate
70.0%
55
History Matches
61
1.04
Conceded Mean
1.16
0.95
Conceded Std
1.01
21.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.0%
7.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.5%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
61
1.00
Result entropy
1.00
1.42
Goal Difference Std
1.53
0.03
Stability score
0.10
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
61
15
Lead Matches
17
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
70.6%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.78
8
Trailing Matches
14
25.0%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.02
Rest days
81.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.43
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
30
0.87
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
24
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
20
1.26
PPG
1.50
30.4%
Win rate
35.0%
34.8%
Draw rate
45.0%
34.8%
Loss rate
20.0%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
65.0%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
10.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.18
23
Current Competition Matches
20
1.26
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.22
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.10
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.33
1.50
Portability PPG Range
0.90
49.88
Portability Score
60.30
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-20.99
PPG0.08
GF0.06
GA-0.13
PPG-0.24
PPG-0.02
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.06
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate9.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate6.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.27
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score-0.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.65
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches3
Current Competition PPG-0.24
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.12
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.60
Portability Score-10.41
Rest days1.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match0.43
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.46
Current Team ELO-20.99
Current Opponent ELO20.99
Current ELO Difference-41.97
Expected score-0.06
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

São Bernardo

L
Avai2–1São Bernardo7 Nov · away
Pick: Avai 47% · hit
W
Cuiaba1–2São Bernardo1 Nov · away
Pick: Cuiaba 44% · missed
W
São Bernardo3–2Vila Nova24 Oct · home
Pick: São Bernardo 38% · hit
L
São Bernardo0–1Criciuma18 Oct · home
Pick: Criciuma 36% · hit
L
Sport Recife2–1São Bernardo6 Oct · away
Pick: Sport Recife 54% · hit

Athletic Club

W
Athletic Club2–1Ceara2 Nov · home
Pick: Athletic Club 41% · hit
L
Operario-PR1–0Athletic Club23 Oct · away
Pick: Operario-PR 46% · hit
D
Avai0–0Athletic Club18 Oct · away
Pick: Avai 45% · missed
D
Athletic Club2–2Londrina13 Oct · home
Pick: Athletic Club 47% · missed
L
Goias2–1Athletic Club6 Oct · away
Pick: Goias 45% · hit

About this match

São Bernardo and Athletic Club meet in Serie B on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Primeiro de Maio, Sao Bernardo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: São Bernardo win 35.9%, draw 33.6%, Athletic Club win 30.5%. The pick is São Bernardo win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.2%. Both teams to score: 49.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.