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League Two England Round 15 2026

Shrewsbury vs Oldham

Shrewsbury Home · Elo 1,417
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Oldham Away · Elo 1,485
The Croud Meadow, Shrewsbury Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Oldham win
Shrewsbury win
23.7%
Draw
22.7%
Oldham winPick
53.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.4%
No50.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.2%
Under 2.551.8%

How much we know

Shrewsbury history85 matches
Oldham history84 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.7%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Oldham are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Oldham are rated 68 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,485 against 1,417. On rating alone Oldham would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Oldham score more

    0.99 goals a game over 85 matches for Shrewsbury, against 1.27 over 84 for Oldham.

  • Oldham concede fewer

    Shrewsbury concede 1.68 a game, Oldham 1.18.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Shrewsbury matches, against 49% for Oldham. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Shrewsbury
Oldham@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1416.9
ELO
1484.6
85
ELO · Matches
84
1416.9
Current Team ELO
1484.6
1484.6
Current Opponent ELO
1416.9
-67.74
Current ELO Difference
67.74
0.40
Expected score
0.60
85
History Matches
84
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.00
46.06
Overperformance
49.62
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.20
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.90
1.10
Goals for per game
1.60
1.90
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
85
Matches
84
0.95
PPG
1.35
24.7%
Win rate
35.7%
21.2%
Draw rate
27.4%
54.1%
Loss rate
36.9%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
69.0%
50.6%
Over 2.5 rate
48.8%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
40
1.20
PPG
1.18
34.1%
Win rate
30.0%
17.1%
Draw rate
27.5%
48.8%
Loss rate
42.5%
61.0%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
48.8%
Over 2.5 rate
52.5%
31.7%
Over 3.5 rate
27.5%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
41
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.99
Goals for per game
1.27
64.7%
Scoring rate
71.4%
51.8%
BTTS rate
45.2%
1.07
Goals for per game
1.18
65.9%
Scoring rate
67.5%
41.5%
BTTS rate
47.5%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
85
History Matches
84
0.99
Goals Mean
1.27
0.96
Goals Std
1.08
64.7%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
23.5%
Scored 2+ rate
38.1%
9.4%
Scored 3+ rate
15.5%
1.07
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.68
Goals against per game
1.18
77.6%
Conceding rate
63.1%
1.41
Goals against per game
1.20
65.9%
Conceding rate
65.0%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
85
History Matches
84
1.68
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.42
Conceded Std
1.29
45.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.8%
27.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.41
Venue Conceded Mean
1.20
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.9%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
34.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.9%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
34.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
85
History Matches
84
0.92
Result entropy
0.99
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.79
8.39
Stability score
0.76
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
84
Eligible Matches
84
9
Lead Matches
25
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
84.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.84
29
Trailing Matches
27
20.7%
Non-loss rate
37.0%
6.9%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
84
Halftime Coverage Matches
84
0.37
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.84
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
66
Normal Rest History Matches
61
0.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
12
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.18
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
9
Competition Season Count
10
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.61
0.68
Portability PPG Range
1.52
66.41
Portability Score
44.94
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
85
Clean History Matches
84
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-67.74
PPG-0.39
GF-0.29
GA0.50
PPG-1.50
PPG0.02
PPG-0.80
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate6.7%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate1.6%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.29
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.06
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.50
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate16.1%
Conceded 3+ rate10.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.44
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score7.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.13
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-16
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate6.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.36
Portability PPG Range-0.84
Portability Score21.47
Rest days-3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.16
Current Team ELO-67.74
Current Opponent ELO67.74
Current ELO Difference-135.5
Expected score-0.19
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Shrewsbury

W
Eastleigh1–2Shrewsbury7 Nov · away
Pick: Eastleigh 39% · missed
L
Shrewsbury1–2Gillingham31 Oct · home
Pick: Gillingham 42% · hit
W
Shrewsbury2–1Everton U2127 Oct · home
Pick: Shrewsbury 54% · hit
D
Rotherham3–3Shrewsbury24 Oct · away
Pick: Rotherham 59% · missed
W
Crawley Town2–3Shrewsbury20 Oct · away
Pick: Crawley Town 55% · missed

Oldham

W
Northampton0–1Oldham3 Nov · away
Pick: Oldham 39% · hit
L
Oldham0–1Crawley Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Oldham 50% · missed
D
Barnet1–1Oldham24 Oct · away
Pick: Barnet 55% · missed
L
Walsall3–0Oldham20 Oct · away
Pick: Walsall 46% · hit
W
Oldham4–1Cheltenham17 Oct · home
Pick: Oldham 52% · hit

About this match

Shrewsbury and Oldham meet in League Two on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at The Croud Meadow, Shrewsbury. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Shrewsbury win 23.7%, draw 22.7%, Oldham win 53.7%. The pick is Oldham win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.2%. Both teams to score: 49.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.